Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x6a0ea8ad6c0534d71efee838d79bf9275c8cc6c06fba969897b7ebc0082b6bf1

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 20, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $612,405
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $217,236

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $612,405 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x8556…fad9backed Yes	0c	94,948$321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$321.1	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	22,646$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.31	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes	0c	21,138$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.14	78	0%0 W · 78 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	0c	16,389$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.55	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	14,655$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.65	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	1c	13,455$144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0e6d…41c6backed Yes	0c	12,078$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	10	10%1 W · 9 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-67%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2935…96f7backed Yes	0c	11,110$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.44	64	1.6%1 W · 63 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	4cpaid	-85.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	0c	10,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.67	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	3c	9,966$302 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301.7	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	0c	9,000$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	6c	6,677$413 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$413.33	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	6,377$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.73	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	5,668$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.87	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	5,237$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.45	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	4,310$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.46	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	3,501$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.54	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e58…6268backed Yes	8c	3,009$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-9.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	2c	3,000$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.14	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	2c	2,866$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.33	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	2c	2,547$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.49	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	2c	2,466$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.92	126	14.3%18 W · 108 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	1c	2,374$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.87	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	2c	2,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	1c	1,985$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.89	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2d3…a1a2backed Yes	3c	1,950$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.65	37	0%0 W · 37 L	-2.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	4c	1,599$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.82	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	1c	1,500$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	4c	1,400$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.8	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	2c	1,366$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.78	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	6c	1,322$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.66	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	1,320$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.13	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x5357…a8f8backed Yes	2c	1,290$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.54	144	13.2%19 W · 125 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c23…2ccdbacked Yes	5c	1,126$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.92	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	19cpaid	-85.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	1,114$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.58	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	3c	1,034$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.66	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd272…fa58backed Yes	7c	1,006$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.04	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+0.7wins	+0.09per pick	16cpaid	+193.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	999.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x15bc…398cbacked Yes	2c	999.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8729…7a5bbacked Yes	1c	979.33$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.77	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-51.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	1c	900$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.6	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x665b…73babacked Yes	6c	899.99$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.3	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x314d…65bfbacked Yes	5c	813.1$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.03	320	15%48 W · 272 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-17.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	4c	755.45$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.5	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	7c	700.21$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	2c	700$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.35	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes	3c	700$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.9	41	9.8%4 W · 37 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-32%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	6c	627.99$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes	4c	500.19$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.95	412	20.6%85 W · 327 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	3c	500$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.5	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3b…6ba5backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbe7c…8356backed Yes	3c	422.97$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.54	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-91.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e9b…eed9backed Yes	4c	414.54$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	4c	399.87$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.57	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x05e1…4c1ebacked Yes	4c	368.56$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.14	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-28.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd50b…e674backed Yes	4c	311.2$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.83	56	16.1%9 W · 47 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-11.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf52b…5bf3backed Yes	4c	300$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	76	7.9%6 W · 70 L	-3.5wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7750…324dbacked Yes	7c	300$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	23	4.3%1 W · 22 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	6c	274.41$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.99	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8778…73febacked Yes	7c	267.55$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	56	12.5%7 W · 49 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcffe…146dbacked Yes	5c	250$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa7cf…db1ebacked Yes	6c	247.02$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	81	9.9%8 W · 73 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ddd…950bbacked Yes	7c	150$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-1.0wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-76.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x404f…f2a1backed Yes	8c	149.97$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.83	43	9.3%4 W · 39 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event