Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x9a5111dcd9256b8360c29fd4508851d70aed4ad8ed1d79acaa15cb84b47776f8

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 20, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $279,493
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $86,657

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $279,493 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xea83…03a8backed Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	14,559$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.22	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	6,662$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.03	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	4c	6,333$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$262.54	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcaa2…3736backed Yes	0c	6,050$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.1	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	5,365$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.71	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	4,615$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.68	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	4,452$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.22	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	1c	3,755$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.89	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2246…dd6fbacked Yes	1c	3,199$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.57	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	2,667$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.99	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	2,321$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.72	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	2,155$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.78	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	1c	2,139$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.69	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	1c	2,031$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.23	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	1,891$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.74	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcffe…146dbacked Yes	1c	1,684$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.42	14	0%0 W · 14 L	-1.5wins	-0.11per pick	11cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	1,671$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.4	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	3c	1,500$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	2c	1,432$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.62	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0224…292abacked Yes	2c	1,342$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.97	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	3c	1,250$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.63	126	14.3%18 W · 108 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,207$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.96	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes	2c	1,206$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.78	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x665b…73babacked Yes	5c	1,100$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.6	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8729…7a5bbacked Yes	1c	1,010$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-51.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15bc…398cbacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf70f…1b9abacked Yes	1c	1,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	152	46.7%71 W · 81 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	46cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	6c	693.47$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1601…7f1cbacked Yes	3c	520$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.01	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d3b…6ba5backed Yes	3c	499.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.5	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	2c	490.43$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.91	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3cb…ef82backed Yes	5c	443.38$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.17	89	16.9%15 W · 74 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	+85.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	4c	436.29$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.24	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes	3c	400$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.2	278	11.9%33 W · 245 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes	4c	385.91$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.35	57	5.3%3 W · 54 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	3c	326.52$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.69	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes	4c	299.66$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.69	412	20.6%85 W · 327 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes	4c	287.83$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.14	434	5.1%22 W · 412 L	-13.5wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-33%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event