TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$1,185,676
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$684,093

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,185,676 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 199 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes0c59,510$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.285045.2%26 W · 478 L+10.0wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+44.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x668b…01d7backed Yes0c30,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…f76abacked Yes0c30,000$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.763912.8%5 W · 34 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick6cpaid+31.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf95b…1032backed Yes0c22,185$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050%0 W · 5 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes7c21,398$1,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,502.9417322.5%39 W · 134 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8556…fad9backed Yes0c20,900$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100348.8%3 W · 31 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-78.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c20,664$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.332740.4%1 W · 273 L+0.7wins0.00per pick0cpaid+257.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x539e…3ccebacked Yes0c18,870$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.4912514.4%18 W · 107 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes5c18,528$845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$844.51,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaee4…9d92backed Yes0c16,000$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.5424.8%2 W · 40 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-50.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153644.7%17 W · 347 L+3.3wins+0.01per pick4cpaid+98.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae65…da6dbacked Yes0c11,945$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5460%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes0c11,185$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.181360.7%1 W · 135 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+635.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes0c11,047$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.051290.8%1 W · 128 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick0cpaid+675.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes0c10,670$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225909.2%54 W · 536 L+1.6wins0.00per pick9cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes0c10,619$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.875198.3%43 W · 476 L+6.4wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-27.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6914…3cbcbacked Yes0c10,227$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.23160%0 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5357…a8f8backed Yes0c9,175$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.5114413.2%19 W · 125 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick12cpaid-32.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce6f…ea3dbacked Yes1c7,811$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ac6abacked Yes0c7,500$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206016.7%10 W · 50 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick20cpaid-37.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x76f9…ea0fbacked Yes1c6,718$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes4c6,656$257 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$257.0914411.1%16 W · 128 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick10cpaid-32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x54b4…f93bbacked Yes0c6,390$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.310%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes0c6,345$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.2733231%103 W · 229 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa1dd…ab1dbacked Yes1c6,312$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes11c6,022$648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.2321213.2%28 W · 184 L-7.5wins-0.04per pick17cpaid-38.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x47e0…281ebacked Yes9c5,586$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001323.1%3 W · 10 L+0.8wins+0.06per pick17cpaid+102.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes2c5,517$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.511,0535.6%59 W · 994 L+20.7wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes6c5,361$309 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.5512614.3%18 W · 108 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-42.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes0c5,028$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.061124.5%5 W · 107 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-67.9%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe360…365abacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes10c4,622$449 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$448.7760127.3%164 W · 437 L-9.4wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes2c4,620$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.293408.2%28 W · 312 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-31.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5539…5cbebacked Yes0c4,403$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.2113713.1%18 W · 119 L+6.6wins+0.05per pick8cpaid+68.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f24…3909backed Yes0c4,217$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2030%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes5c4,206$222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.21,0678.3%89 W · 978 L+28.9wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes0c4,108$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.51,6251.9%31 W · 1,594 L+14.5wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+17.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes9c4,077$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.93977.2%7 W · 90 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-30.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12c6…f2cdbacked Yes15c3,815$588 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$588.122416.7%4 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick25cpaid-22.2%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes10c3,665$350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35020924.9%52 W · 157 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-17%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes6c3,518$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$215.4188018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x44b5…11a3backed Yes0c3,408$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7214233.8%48 W · 94 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-34.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x236e…338abacked Yes0c3,350$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes7c3,044$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.112,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes4c3,044$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.297304.5%33 W · 697 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-64.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes1c3,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$304165.3%22 W · 394 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid+158.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes1c2,802$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.3541610.6%44 W · 372 L-0.3wins0.00per pick11cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x98e1…71e9backed Yes0c2,702$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.27616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick19cpaid-33.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc357…6646backed Yes1c2,659$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2750%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes12c2,422$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.7578811.5%91 W · 697 L-33.7wins-0.04per pick16cpaid-42.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x898e…99adbacked Yes6c2,367$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.0940%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x18bf…3658backed Yes0c2,290$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.74420.5%9 W · 35 L+0.5wins+0.01per pick19cpaid-29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbf7…cc26backed Yes1c2,255$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes7c2,073$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.623986.8%27 W · 371 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+30.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x70c7…e672backed Yes10c2,042$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick24cpaid-60.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes4c2,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804806.9%33 W · 447 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick6cpaid+21.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes15c1,997$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.686747.8%32 W · 35 L+4.9wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+49.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xfd05…730dbacked Yes1c1,973$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes8c1,970$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.2622718.5%42 W · 185 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-12.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes2c1,900$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.64916.7%33 W · 458 L+11.5wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+5.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb28b…3d9bbacked Yes1c1,899$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249626%25 W · 71 L-0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1845…93a5backed Yes11c1,825$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200812.5%1 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick13cpaid-38.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3ba8…697ebacked Yes4c1,818$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.98531.8%27 W · 58 L+6.3wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+27.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes3c1,733$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.582074.3%9 W · 198 L+2.1wins+0.01per pick3cpaid+5.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2692…38e2backed Yes1c1,708$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.2519118.8%36 W · 155 L+5.5wins+0.03per pick16cpaid+24%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes1c1,698$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.033281.2%4 W · 324 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid-10.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes8c1,691$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.971,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ff0…c634backed Yes1c1,686$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151010%1 W · 9 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick13cpaid-85.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes3c1,683$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.182,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked Yes1c1,615$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.1315435.1%54 W · 100 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x63c5…6f61backed Yes13c1,513$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2006320.6%13 W · 50 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-40.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes10c1,500$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.9945911.3%52 W · 407 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb30a…250ebacked Yes6c1,500$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.975815.5%9 W · 49 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+98.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes7c1,500$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.51227.4%9 W · 113 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick8cpaid+43.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes1c1,497$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.492359.4%22 W · 213 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick7cpaid+19.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e27…ef09backed Yes6c1,488$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$966711.9%8 W · 59 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-22.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Yes9c1,396$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1226114.8%9 W · 52 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-64.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe20b…d71cbacked Yes3c1,390$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42385.3%2 W · 36 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-25.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes2c1,349$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.371765.1%9 W · 167 L+3.4wins+0.02per pick3cpaid-19%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes3c1,263$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.331565.8%9 W · 147 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+58%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x77d5…7557backed Yes1c1,256$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.32927.6%8 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-41.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8729…7a5bbacked Yes5c1,242$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.13214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick8cpaid-51.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4224…6babbacked Yes4c1,234$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$502626.9%7 W · 19 L-0.6wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-57.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes1c1,213$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.211185.9%7 W · 111 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick4cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9e5…13ffbacked Yes11c1,140$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$128.7112311.4%14 W · 109 L-4.1wins-0.03per pick15cpaid-43%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x71a1…19e7backed Yes8c1,102$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.222913.8%4 W · 25 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-26.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes9c1,100$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.0250913.8%70 W · 439 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes8c1,091$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.4588017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5464…9d3ebacked Yes2c1,067$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203225%8 W · 24 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-13.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes5c1,050$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$535598.2%46 W · 513 L+12.5wins+0.02per pick6cpaid-1.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes2c1,046$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.7888610.3%91 W · 795 L-4.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xdeb7…7331backed Yes12c1,030$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.433426.5%9 W · 25 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick27cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes2c1,014$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.231,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes3c1,000$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302859.1%26 W · 259 L+7.2wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+30.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb1…b2b3backed Yes2c997.15$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.94512%1 W · 50 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick1cpaid+107.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf900…cd0cbacked Yes8c985.17$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.781520%3 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick27cpaid-74.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0044…cb2cbacked Yes4c955.05$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.841216.6%8 W · 113 L-3.3wins-0.03per pick9cpaid-71.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x97e5…e2f4backed Yes12c941.28$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.942420.8%5 W · 19 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-35.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e6a…7155backed Yes3c921.82$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2510013%13 W · 87 L-2.1wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-35.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x288c…3318backed Yes13c895.52$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1201216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-39.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.