Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x332e24ee562089eb6a807487dde3fca6e79980da9229102c015c0e98dab5f375

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 20, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,344,766
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $808,263

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,344,766 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 304 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	107,432$3,144 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,143.85	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8556…fad9backed Yes	6c	86,253$4,872 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,872.04	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	4c	22,875$825 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$825.04	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	3c	22,349$744 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$744.14	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xddee…6dc4backed Yes	1c	21,896$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.96	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	5c	15,897$754 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$753.61	126	14.3%18 W · 108 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	1c	15,144$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.9	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	4c	15,080$630 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$629.58	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	2c	14,339$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.34	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	7c	14,021$1,040 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,040.39	1,036	11.1%115 W · 921 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	1c	12,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$89.97	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x99fd…9028backed Yes	2c	10,411$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.06	121	12.4%15 W · 106 L	-10.9wins	-0.09per pick	21cpaid	-58.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	10,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	5c	9,323$425 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$425.36	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	6c	9,307$555 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$554.8	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda4d…4e78backed Yes	6c	8,644$511 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$511.42	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.5wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-61.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	3c	8,605$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.53	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	7c	8,337$553 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$553.09	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b67…60aabacked Yes	1c	8,177$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	141	37.6%53 W · 88 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	40cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	2c	8,005$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.03	1,060	8.4%89 W · 971 L	+29.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	8,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	2c	7,419$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$145.46	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	2c	7,216$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	3c	7,000$207 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	5c	6,970$342 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$341.68	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	6c	6,912$410 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$409.6	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	6,879$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.99	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	7c	6,396$472 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$471.75	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	3c	6,000$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.21	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	5c	5,980$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325.22	351	12.8%45 W · 306 L	+6.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	9c	5,598$477 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$477.24	413	10.7%44 W · 369 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	3c	5,557$145 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$144.77	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	5c	5,324$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$286.04	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa4b3…87b8backed Yes	7c	5,109$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$355.2	70	22.9%16 W · 54 L	+2.8wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+31.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes	5c	5,086$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.82	292	25%73 W · 219 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	6c	5,059$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.65	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	1c	4,810$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.13	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	5c	4,798$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	8c	4,712$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365.82	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	8c	4,702$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.8	599	27%162 W · 437 L	-9.9wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xae65…da6dbacked Yes	4c	4,543$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.9	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3454…333bbacked Yes	4c	4,387$192 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$192.01	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa976…5c43backed Yes	5c	4,338$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.85	380	10%38 W · 342 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-30.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	8c	4,114$328 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$328.24	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	7c	4,044$294 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$294	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x901a…dc86backed Yes	7c	4,030$278 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$277.8	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7076…7e6cbacked Yes	7c	4,002$271 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$271.49	104	14.4%15 W · 89 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	4,000$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.9	797	11.3%90 W · 707 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	2c	3,989$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.89	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44b5…11a3backed Yes	5c	3,932$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$184.54	142	33.8%48 W · 94 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	3c	3,862$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xd91c…985ebacked Yes	5c	3,732$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.74	11	9.1%1 W · 10 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	16cpaid	-79.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec7e…a915backed Yes	7c	3,662$240 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$239.72	46	26.1%12 W · 34 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-53%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes	4c	3,634$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.88	121	14%17 W · 104 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2a44…e4e8backed Yes	0c	3,500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	486	9.7%47 W · 439 L	+8.2wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c5…e133backed Yes	7c	3,500$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250.27	71	32.4%23 W · 48 L	-1.8wins	-0.03per pick	35cpaid	-20.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb027…7389backed Yes	3c	3,433$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.29	23	21.7%5 W · 18 L	+1.1wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+9.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	15c	3,389$494 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$493.77	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	1c	3,206$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	11c	3,199$358 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$357.78	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x93c4…7599backed Yes	6c	3,150$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	230	17%39 W · 191 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b9e…eb82backed Yes	7c	3,127$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.56	27	29.6%8 W · 19 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	-37.5%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ff45backed Yes	10c	3,112$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.10per pick	10cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	14c	3,009$414 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$414.26	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9ac…c5d1backed Yes	2c	2,849$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.36	108	17.6%19 W · 89 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+58.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x85f0…62ebbacked Yes	5c	2,781$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.45	101	14.9%15 W · 86 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+47.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	2c	2,759$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.49	578	11.4%66 W · 512 L	+19.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7b64…ebdebacked Yes	5c	2,742$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149	78	25.6%20 W · 58 L	+3.5wins	+0.05per pick	21cpaid	+24.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	4c	2,686$119 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.35	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe2d5…853dbacked Yes	6c	2,637$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.68	36	30.6%11 W · 25 L	+2.7wins	+0.08per pick	23cpaid	+36.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5357…a8f8backed Yes	5c	2,493$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136.91	144	13.2%19 W · 125 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x977b…40f6backed Yes	3c	2,395$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.6	64	23.4%15 W · 49 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e54…8347backed Yes	5c	2,280$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.27	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Yes	5c	2,280$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.26	63	20.6%13 W · 50 L	+5.6wins	+0.09per pick	12cpaid	+196.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xd60f…b6c4backed Yes	7c	2,241$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.44	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	12c	2,240$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.99	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf111…2a81backed Yes	2c	2,200$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	88	5.7%5 W · 83 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-15.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	6c	2,196$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.83	876	18.4%161 W · 715 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x48c5…89f3backed Yes	6c	2,190$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.67	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe2b6…9ff5backed Yes	1c	2,141$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	84	20.2%17 W · 67 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x345d…4e41backed Yes	1c	2,092$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.54	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.4wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc357…6646backed Yes	2c	2,024$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.64	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd3d7…def8backed Yes	1c	2,000$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.35	10	20%2 W · 8 L	+0.8wins	+0.08per pick	12cpaid	+52.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4143…d67dbacked Yes	1c	2,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	212	20.3%43 W · 169 L	+13.4wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+610.3%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	9c	2,000$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177	781	8.7%68 W · 713 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	7c	2,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	15c	1,984$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$304	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8c33…ce95backed Yes	1c	1,960$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.03	42	40.5%17 W · 25 L	-2.1wins	-0.05per pick	45cpaid	-18.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd7cd…f7c3backed Yes	8c	1,900$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+51.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f7b…55cebacked Yes	8c	1,844$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.52	127	12.6%16 W · 111 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+56.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc6f2…60fabacked Yes	7c	1,805$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.21	80	8.8%7 W · 73 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	12cpaid	-41%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xb260…715abacked Yes	4c	1,782$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.35	65	32.3%21 W · 44 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	4c	1,782$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80.05	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes	3c	1,664$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.28	227	18.5%42 W · 185 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ec4…6529backed Yes	4c	1,653$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.63	69	13%9 W · 60 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+48.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3ff…9708backed Yes	2c	1,613$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.84	62	24.2%15 W · 47 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	22cpaid	+8.6%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x77d5…7557backed Yes	8c	1,604$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.2	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9523…56e0backed Yes	6c	1,600$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96	59	8.5%5 W · 54 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+3.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	4c	1,576$61 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.54	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3d99…854fbacked Yes	2c	1,548$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.89	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event