Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xdef7e4ce6b94668eaf51785afb6978740cb24bb7cce67880615d37b00ef7d5ba

Rebuilt 15 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 20, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $1,236,514
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $835,475

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,236,514 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 645 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	20c	38,084$7,700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,700.05	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	35,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	11c	25,167$2,679 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,678.64	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x221f…fca7backed Yes	16c	18,626$2,910 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,910	82	13.4%11 W · 71 L	-3.6wins	-0.04per pick	18cpaid	-23.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	20c	18,081$3,549 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,549.19	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	15c	17,755$2,741 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,740.93	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	18c	15,317$2,802 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,801.51	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	8c	14,690$1,246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,245.57	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	19c	14,073$2,660 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,659.57	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes	3c	12,000$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.41	568	17.4%99 W · 469 L	+18.3wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-17.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	11c	11,883$1,333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,333.34	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x48c5…89f3backed Yes	23c	10,507$2,435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,435.28	48	22.9%11 W · 37 L	-2.6wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-51.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe723…403cbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	20	30%6 W · 14 L	+1.7wins	+0.09per pick	21cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes	20c	8,927$1,811 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,810.69	227	18.5%42 W · 185 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x771d…b0ffbacked Yes	7c	8,800$619 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$619.32	186	18.3%34 W · 152 L	-7.6wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-45.6%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa676…1c22backed Yes	3c	8,000$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215	59	5.1%3 W · 56 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-61.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	18c	7,939$1,399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,399.4	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	19c	7,694$1,441 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,441.26	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	17c	7,602$1,257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,257.38	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47e0…281ebacked Yes	27c	7,331$1,999 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,999.44	13	23.1%3 W · 10 L	+0.8wins	+0.06per pick	17cpaid	+102.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes	19c	7,200$1,404 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,403.86	317	22.4%71 W · 246 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	11c	7,183$767 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$766.95	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf51b…ca1bbacked Yes	0c	7,051$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.98	30	36.7%11 W · 19 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	32cpaid	-1.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbced…7f66backed Yes	18c	6,846$1,246 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,245.8	197	26.9%53 W · 144 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	78c	6,720$5,222 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,497.51	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x474c…37d3backed Yes	12c	6,314$765 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$765.06	410	17.8%73 W · 337 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	12c	6,118$712 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$711.92	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	16c	6,018$949 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$949.2	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…2f27backed Yes	19c	6,000$1,112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,112.21	241	15.4%37 W · 204 L	+0.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-31.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	11c	4,600$497 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$496.8	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes	11c	4,555$479 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$478.55	149	28.2%42 W · 107 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	10c	4,387$445 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$445.03	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8556…fad9backed Yes	23c	4,237$958 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$957.59	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	21c	4,227$873 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$872.81	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6a48…a46bbacked Yes	10c	4,220$409 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$408.84	92	19.6%18 W · 74 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-47.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4985…dce4backed Yes	0c	4,032$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.31	60	33.3%20 W · 40 L	+5.2wins	+0.09per pick	25cpaid	+12.7%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	15c	4,012$590 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$589.71	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	16c	3,666$572 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$572	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	18c	3,517$637 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$636.87	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaaf0…f098backed Yes	1c	3,439$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.27	22	13.6%3 W · 19 L	+1.5wins	+0.07per pick	7cpaid	-51.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	9c	3,431$326 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325.91	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	12c	3,334$406 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$405.95	126	14.3%18 W · 108 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	10c	3,294$321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320.97	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	15c	3,279$478 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$478.44	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	1c	3,240$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.94	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5e2f…55cabacked Yes	12c	3,226$400 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$400	117	30.8%36 W · 81 L	+4.3wins	+0.04per pick	27cpaid	+57.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	3,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f82…2d74backed Yes	10c	2,973$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292.87	105	13.3%14 W · 91 L	+2.2wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+0.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf7c1…1215backed Yes	10c	2,940$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	46	21.7%10 W · 36 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xda6f…e619backed Yes	20c	2,845$573 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$573.48	66	13.6%9 W · 57 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x204b…8ca3backed Yes	20c	2,822$570 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$569.71	187	22.5%42 W · 145 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x478e…a576backed Yes	13c	2,811$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$359.98	96	16.7%16 W · 80 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9910…f5f9backed Yes	10c	2,691$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.99	52	15.4%8 W · 44 L	-3.7wins	-0.07per pick	22cpaid	-45%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3ba8…697ebacked Yes	18c	2,561$461 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$461.44	85	31.8%27 W · 58 L	+6.3wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	+27.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe144…487fbacked Yes	20c	2,431$483 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$483	104	21.2%22 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	15c	2,388$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$355	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	9c	2,359$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.05	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9721…0c3ebacked Yes	24c	2,293$540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540.28	108	18.5%20 W · 88 L	+2.7wins	+0.02per pick	16cpaid	+12.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	8c	2,227$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.12	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x539e…3ccebacked Yes	14c	2,213$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.52	125	14.4%18 W · 107 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9f6d…b4c7backed Yes	9c	2,193$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$189.83	124	29.8%37 W · 87 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	+12.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5947…8bdabacked Yes	18c	2,182$403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$402.79	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	-0.8wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb30a…250ebacked Yes	10c	2,100$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.9	58	15.5%9 W · 49 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+98.2%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x34a6…558bbacked No	78c	2,100$1,638 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$461.98	181	23.8%43 W · 138 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1845…93a5backed Yes	11c	2,069$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-38.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18b2…24efbacked Yes	27c	2,062$555 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$554.92	156	19.2%30 W · 126 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	9c	2,005$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.9	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	10c	2,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x117f…e958backed Yes	26c	1,973$512 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$511.88	23	26.1%6 W · 17 L	-1.1wins	-0.05per pick	31cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6fb6…ec60backed Yes	10c	1,970$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188	266	19.5%52 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	18cpaid	+9.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63c5…6f61backed Yes	28c	1,962$550 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$550	63	20.6%13 W · 50 L	-2.4wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes	23c	1,959$457 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$456.59	439	33%145 W · 294 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	37cpaid	-38.1%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xb0f6…e965backed Yes	17c	1,918$322 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.37	32	12.5%4 W · 28 L	-1.1wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-28%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	9c	1,900$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.82	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	7c	1,811$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.84	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x94f8…e851backed Yes	30c	1,801$540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540.08	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.11per pick	45cpaid	-52.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8217…5379backed Yes	40c	1,787$713 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$712.88	4	25%1 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.18per pick	43cpaid	-65.3%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes	8c	1,781$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.55	264	11.4%30 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fa2…e6f3backed Yes	40c	1,735$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	24	45.8%11 W · 13 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	45cpaid	-11%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee3d…5744backed Yes	9c	1,720$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$162.81	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.3wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc958…fcffbacked Yes	18c	1,720$307 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1626…9992backed Yes	12c	1,715$208 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$207.86	114	28.9%33 W · 81 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	28cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	8c	1,710$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$143.45	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8dda…6ec7backed Yes	8c	1,686$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.49	18	5.6%1 W · 17 L	-4.7wins	-0.26per pick	32cpaid	-80.9%equal weight	38-0.11 edge/pick
0xbf14…5d95backed Yes	10c	1,656$173 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.01	122	16.4%20 W · 102 L	+9.3wins	+0.08per pick	9cpaid	+40.8%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbbc6…2b42backed No	66c	1,643$1,079 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$564.06	47	70.2%33 W · 14 L	+3.5wins	+0.07per pick	63cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes	12c	1,636$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.23	292	25%73 W · 219 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x34bf…26e7backed Yes	24c	1,634$388 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388.23	79	39.2%31 W · 48 L	+3.3wins	+0.04per pick	35cpaid	+23.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd0bf…08f0backed Yes	14c	1,585$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.17	216	14.8%32 W · 184 L	-8.1wins	-0.04per pick	19cpaid	-38.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc86…7e78backed Yes	13c	1,570$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	56	41.1%23 W · 33 L	+3.0wins	+0.05per pick	36cpaid	+15.4%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	19c	1,547$288 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$287.56	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x0df8…b67ebacked Yes	15c	1,500$224 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$224.21	188	22.3%42 W · 146 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	2c	1,500$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.5	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e27…ef09backed Yes	12c	1,475$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178	67	11.9%8 W · 59 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4aae…d563backed Yes	21c	1,450$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	67	47.8%32 W · 35 L	+4.9wins	+0.07per pick	40cpaid	+49.4%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0xe155…45afbacked Yes	11c	1,442$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155	209	24.9%52 W · 157 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9df3…ddfcbacked No	74c	1,432$1,057 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$375.17	348	33.3%116 W · 232 L	-3.4wins	-0.01per pick	34cpaid	-11.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe13f…c8b4backed Yes	11c	1,428$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.14	158	19%30 W · 128 L	+3.7wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdc73…d73abacked Yes	9c	1,422$131 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$131.1	51	29.4%15 W · 36 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-16.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	14c	1,419$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.53	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event