Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x44840b3b518433033732928507dcecccfc761e9a34d6bc55b61ab390ae37c03e

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 18, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $371,754
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $218,778

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $371,754 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x76f9…ea0fbacked Yes	0c	13,000$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	1c	10,859$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.22	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	8,835$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$157.95	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	8,590$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.09	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	8,357$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x288c…3318backed Yes	3c	8,064$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	0c	6,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	1c	4,982$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.91	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2e6a…7155backed Yes	3c	4,726$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	100	13%13 W · 87 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	4,160$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.04	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	3,383$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.06	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,209$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.05	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8729…7a5bbacked Yes	1c	3,131$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.9	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-51.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7970…5f42backed Yes	2c	2,889$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.78	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	+0.9wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	+28%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	2,701$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.87	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	1c	2,675$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.59	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	2c	2,400$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.4	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccf9…e66fbacked Yes	2c	2,203$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.07	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4224…6babbacked Yes	2c	2,185$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	2c	2,147$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.44	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xabb1…b2b3backed Yes	1c	2,000$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	51	2%1 W · 50 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+107.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8230…9074backed Yes	3c	1,972$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	2	50%1 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.47per pick	3cpaid	+1,150%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x11e9…ad7bbacked Yes	2c	1,882$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	2c	1,801$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.02	126	14.3%18 W · 108 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6233…8216backed Yes	2c	1,758$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	34	5.9%2 W · 32 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa70…5501backed Yes	2c	1,687$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.55	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-54.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	1c	1,675$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.23	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	2c	1,663$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.59	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	2c	1,556$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.28	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x85b9…906dbacked Yes	1c	1,504$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.6	147	15%22 W · 125 L	+4.8wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+80.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	3c	1,474$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.34	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	2c	1,438$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.91	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes	2c	1,372$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23	264	11.4%30 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e72…62ddbacked Yes	3c	1,345$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe739…eeb5backed Yes	3c	1,246$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.61	133	17.3%23 W · 110 L	+5.5wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,236$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.79	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf900…cd0cbacked Yes	4c	1,208$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.06	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	1c	1,165$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.29	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	1,150$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.16	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	2c	1,026$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3ba8…697ebacked Yes	3c	1,007$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.27	85	31.8%27 W · 58 L	+6.3wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	+27.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe20b…d71cbacked Yes	1c	1,005$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-25.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	2c	1,000$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8147…294cbacked Yes	1c	999.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	56	26.8%15 W · 41 L	+3.9wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes	3c	903.89$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.8	100	7%7 W · 93 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes	1c	885.06$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.08	57	5.3%3 W · 54 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes	1c	818.64$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.18	118	5.9%7 W · 111 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf663…bff8backed Yes	1c	807.74$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.31	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	799.35$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.88	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8aed…46fabacked Yes	2c	775.13$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.6	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-61.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	743.87$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.43	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdeb7…7331backed Yes	3c	734.99$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.09	34	26.5%9 W · 25 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeae8…479fbacked Yes	2c	722.31$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	92	17.4%16 W · 76 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x919d…60e1backed Yes	3c	650$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.96	28	21.4%6 W · 22 L	-2.1wins	-0.08per pick	29cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x60dd…260bbacked Yes	2c	570.05$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x05fd…3c2fbacked Yes	4c	567.7$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xb9df…d830backed Yes	2c	565.41$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.37	160	17.5%28 W · 132 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5e7…bda3backed Yes	3c	553.34$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.4wins	+0.11per pick	14cpaid	-49.8%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	2c	523.31$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.78	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4101…48ffbacked Yes	4c	500.38$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	499.99$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.98	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed Yes	3c	447.11$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.53	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa7dc…e407backed Yes	2c	442.86$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-1.6wins	-0.07per pick	12cpaid	-23.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf804…8028backed Yes	4c	300$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.93	37	10.8%4 W · 33 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event