Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x59dd01dd6ec229b1ee0e0b6c48b7698df284f9e3cfa8fab22fd46b6be861c6b3

Rebuilt 16 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 18, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $573,629
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $328,192

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $573,629 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 111 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	19,548$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.21	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	4c	18,455$731 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$731.04	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6cb6…ac6abacked Yes	0c	16,480$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.48	60	16.7%10 W · 50 L	-1.9wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-37.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	1c	13,000$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.5	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	3c	12,551$403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$403.49	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4162…70c5backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5539…5cbebacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	137	13.1%18 W · 119 L	+6.6wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	+68.8%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	1c	5,327$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.13	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	2c	5,289$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.96	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	4,900$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.33	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	3c	4,635$135 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.03	126	14.3%18 W · 108 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	4c	4,313$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x037b…47f4backed Yes	1c	4,166$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.59	416	5.3%22 W · 394 L	+10.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+158.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	3,974$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$119.68	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70c7…e672backed Yes	5c	3,772$175 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0106…0e63backed Yes	1c	3,562$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	19	10.5%2 W · 17 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-60%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7c0e…ef39backed Yes	2c	3,360$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.56	5	20%1 W · 4 L	+0.4wins	+0.07per pick	13cpaid	+17.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	5c	3,271$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.34	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	5c	3,246$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.9	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	2,995$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.94	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	7c	2,945$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.26	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	6c	2,825$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$169.51	601	27.3%164 W · 437 L	-9.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	3c	2,800$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.37	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x599c…e175backed Yes	1c	2,762$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	3c	2,699$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.03	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x288c…3318backed Yes	9c	2,644$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xb5cf…0ef8backed Yes	6c	2,570$148 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147.6	100	7%7 W · 93 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xce72…01f2backed Yes	7c	2,461$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$176.11	97	7.2%7 W · 90 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-30.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e6a…7155backed Yes	3c	2,326$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70	100	13%13 W · 87 L	-2.1wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-35.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	5c	2,325$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.71	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	5c	2,221$118 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.61	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	1c	2,135$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.16	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	7c	2,000$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	4c	2,000$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8729…7a5bbacked Yes	3c	1,857$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.15	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-51.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed Yes	1c	1,786$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.87	272	7%19 W · 253 L	+6.7wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+83.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes	6c	1,756$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.04	264	11.4%30 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b03…b766backed Yes	6c	1,653$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	106	23.6%25 W · 81 L	-5.2wins	-0.05per pick	28cpaid	-36.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	1,540$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.6	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x71a1…19e7backed Yes	5c	1,442$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.53	29	13.8%4 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-26.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	4c	1,438$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.77	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes	3c	1,244$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.82	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	1,182$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.55	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0de6…2393backed Yes	9c	1,155$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.2wins	+0.05per pick	28cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	4c	1,154$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xabfb…12e5backed Yes	4c	1,114$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.53	102	16.7%17 W · 85 L	+6.7wins	+0.07per pick	10cpaid	-25.3%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7279…4612backed Yes	4c	1,090$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.99	273	16.8%46 W · 227 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes	3c	1,045$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.18	156	5.8%9 W · 147 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	5cpaid	+58%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	1,028$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.47	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec6a…afccbacked Yes	3c	1,020$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.58	180	12.8%23 W · 157 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x338b…5827backed Yes	3c	1,002$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.43	296	10.5%31 W · 265 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e27…ef09backed Yes	5c	1,002$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	67	11.9%8 W · 59 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3ba8…697ebacked Yes	3c	1,000$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.83	85	31.8%27 W · 58 L	+6.3wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	+27.5%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1af0…d21fbacked Yes	2c	1,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	285	9.1%26 W · 259 L	+7.2wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+30.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xabb1…b2b3backed Yes	1c	999.99$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	51	2%1 W · 50 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+107.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf900…cd0cbacked Yes	5c	999.76$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.51	15	20%3 W · 12 L	-1.1wins	-0.07per pick	27cpaid	-74.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6f43…a080backed Yes	2c	981.15$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.39	44	27.3%12 W · 32 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	26cpaid	+2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8187…ff6abacked Yes	3c	930.09$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	133	14.3%19 W · 114 L	-3.7wins	-0.03per pick	17cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0e51…e4f7backed Yes	5c	890.59$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.49	388	28.6%111 W · 277 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-39.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	834.67$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.43	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	2c	815.51$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa70…5501backed Yes	7c	795.14$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.81	26	19.2%5 W · 21 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-54.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dc3…11dfbacked Yes	4c	793.38$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.88	20	35%7 W · 13 L	+3.7wins	+0.19per pick	16cpaid	+12.2%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x1798…1ce9backed Yes	2c	779.55$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.39	57	5.3%3 W · 54 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xff26…c6e9backed Yes	4c	777.21$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.27	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-0.5wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeae8…479fbacked Yes	9c	745.91$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67	92	17.4%16 W · 76 L	-2.5wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcf7f…7459backed Yes	6c	711.29$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	3c	704.28$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.85	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb8c…69b1backed Yes	10c	696.71$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67	179	19%34 W · 145 L	-10.0wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x9edf…0f44backed Yes	2c	671.51$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	65	9.2%6 W · 59 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cdd…f1c7backed Yes	2c	669.99$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.05	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.9wins	+0.10per pick	12cpaid	+209.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes	2c	641.44$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.67	118	5.9%7 W · 111 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d31…4443backed Yes	3c	632.52$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	59	13.6%8 W · 51 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-29.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71d9…a21cbacked Yes	2c	601.2$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.1	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6233…8216backed Yes	9c	595.71$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.51	34	5.9%2 W · 32 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-64.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	8c	594.46$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.12	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x308a…eed3backed Yes	3c	585.83$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	66	30.3%20 W · 46 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	+62.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	3c	581.15$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.99	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbe90…9590backed Yes	5c	552.72$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	38	15.8%6 W · 32 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdeb7…7331backed Yes	5c	510.6$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.41	34	26.5%9 W · 25 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	27cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	7c	504.3$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.29	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa43…d992backed Yes	3c	500$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	134	8.2%11 W · 123 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	3c	499.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ec4…bfe9backed Yes	4c	496.66$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.06	165	6.7%11 W · 154 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5ee…182dbacked Yes	4c	454.72$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	8cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8d4…0e8bbacked Yes	6c	446.69$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.31	54	13%7 W · 47 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+93.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9474…5091backed Yes	4c	432.09$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.43	175	6.9%12 W · 163 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	+45.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb9df…d830backed Yes	5c	428.61$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.32	160	17.5%28 W · 132 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ce8…ed83backed Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.15per pick	27cpaid	-70.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	4c	400$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.91	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd50a…0eb1backed Yes	10c	400$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38.91	33	18.2%6 W · 27 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	14cpaid	+53.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbb8…f7debacked Yes	4c	393.63$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.31	105	10.5%11 W · 94 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8147…294cbacked Yes	6c	369.59$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.69	56	26.8%15 W · 41 L	+3.9wins	+0.07per pick	20cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	4c	350$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.25	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	3c	335.59$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.28	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x92ad…c78fbacked Yes	5c	330$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.69	79	7.6%6 W · 73 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-40.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6470…b017backed Yes	4c	319.76$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.8	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	+1.6wins	+0.08per pick	7cpaid	+66%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc958…fcffbacked Yes	5c	319.75$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	16cpaid	-20.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8bce…c476backed Yes	5c	317.47$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.46	78	23.1%18 W · 60 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event