Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc2c07fe7369f9afb315b5d6d387374c0e05c5a0049872720c137641a6922117a

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 20, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $892,845
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $391,831

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $892,845 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 151 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x9e83…9394backed Yes	0c	34,969$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.97	177	2.3%4 W · 173 L	+1.0wins	+0.01per pick	2cpaid	+467.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	33,676$755 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$754.62	1,799	7.4%133 W · 1,666 L	-24.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8556…fad9backed Yes	1c	28,900$399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$398.74	34	8.8%3 W · 31 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-78.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	1c	26,117$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.09	530	10.6%56 W · 474 L	+17.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	0c	23,058$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.11	774	21.7%168 W · 606 L	-3.2wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes	0c	20,520$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.52	78	0%0 W · 78 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x23cc…4f5abacked Yes	0c	20,200$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.95	827	11%91 W · 736 L	+21.9wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	0c	13,954$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.57	463	8.2%38 W · 425 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6914…3cbcbacked Yes	0c	13,802$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	16	0%0 W · 16 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes	0c	13,789$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.79	136	0.7%1 W · 135 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+635.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x90bb…531fbacked Yes	0c	13,442$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.44	129	0.8%1 W · 128 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	0cpaid	+675.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1355…6591backed Yes	1c	13,020$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115	235	9.4%22 W · 213 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	2c	12,879$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3a58…7e08backed Yes	0c	11,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	140	9.3%13 W · 127 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	+642.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	3c	10,694$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365.17	1,041	11%115 W · 926 L	+4.5wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Yes	3c	10,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	4cpaid	+100%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1022…f0cfbacked Yes	2c	9,738$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.69	173	22.5%39 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	7c	8,601$563 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$562.52	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	7,221$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	0c	7,000$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.87	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	6,938$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.54	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	7c	6,575$489 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$488.91	712	16.7%119 W · 593 L	-13.0wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-28.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	3c	6,088$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.54	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	3c	5,600$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.09	426	10.6%45 W · 381 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+14.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	8c	5,528$445 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$445.45	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe224…6e71backed Yes	0c	5,500$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	3c	5,205$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.8	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0130…fb49backed Yes	0c	5,086$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.85	292	25%73 W · 219 L	-1.9wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b21…a6b2backed Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9d37…ca4cbacked Yes	0c	5,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	3c	4,773$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.89	127	15%19 W · 108 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-41.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	4,518$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.24	2,576	13.2%339 W · 2,237 L	+4.4wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	4,400$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.63	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7c5f…7c46backed Yes	0c	4,396$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.04	8	25%2 W · 6 L	+1.2wins	+0.14per pick	11cpaid	-8.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5357…a8f8backed Yes	1c	4,356$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.54	144	13.2%19 W · 125 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	12cpaid	-32.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	9c	4,196$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$370	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3d99…854fbacked Yes	0c	4,182$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.51	28	10.7%3 W · 25 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	12cpaid	-19.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa06c…0861backed Yes	1c	4,132$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.55	146	8.2%12 W · 134 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	-2.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf3b1…9ca4backed Yes	2c	3,970$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.98	326	7.1%23 W · 303 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-39.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcf4e…e3a2backed Yes	0c	3,588$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.05	99	21.2%21 W · 78 L	+8.0wins	+0.08per pick	13cpaid	+32.9%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	3,500$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.18	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	6c	3,147$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.23	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	3,095$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.62	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Yes	1c	3,010$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.56	63	20.6%13 W · 50 L	+5.6wins	+0.09per pick	12cpaid	+196.6%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7e54…8347backed Yes	1c	3,009$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.51	32	21.9%7 W · 25 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	2c	3,000$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x44b5…11a3backed Yes	3c	2,817$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.98	142	33.8%48 W · 94 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	33cpaid	-34.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	3c	2,509$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.59	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	4c	2,020$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.02	789	8.7%69 W · 720 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	2,017$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.73	1,209	8.7%105 W · 1,104 L	+31.6wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3454…333bbacked Yes	2c	2,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.48	72	16.7%12 W · 60 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-64.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	3c	2,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3901…b2a4backed Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x25c9…2c0ebacked Yes	3c	1,900$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.82	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8593…c931backed Yes	6c	1,748$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	130	20%26 W · 104 L	-3.3wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked Yes	4c	1,505$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.69	491	6.7%33 W · 458 L	+11.5wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	3c	1,500$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5f6…7d33backed Yes	1c	1,468$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.58	207	4.3%9 W · 198 L	+2.1wins	+0.01per pick	3cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2090…2246backed Yes	6c	1,416$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.85	30	10%3 W · 27 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	14cpaid	-53.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x86df…f4cfbacked Yes	7c	1,393$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.89	124	16.9%21 W · 103 L	+4.0wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	+57.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8585…cbf4backed Yes	6c	1,336$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.35	120	9.2%11 W · 109 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x77d5…7557backed Yes	4c	1,331$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.88	29	27.6%8 W · 21 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-41.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd3b8…5a0fbacked Yes	7c	1,281$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.7	604	27.5%166 W · 438 L	-9.3wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-45.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	1,229$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.49	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8513…75abbacked Yes	8c	1,225$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97	13	7.7%1 W · 12 L	-1.0wins	-0.08per pick	16cpaid	-89.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	4c	1,211$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.49	391	4.6%18 W · 373 L	+3.9wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-20%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c29…6fffbacked Yes	8c	1,209$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.74	181	10.5%19 W · 162 L	-10.4wins	-0.06per pick	16cpaid	-37.9%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x478e…a576backed Yes	1c	1,168$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.43	96	16.7%16 W · 80 L	-2.0wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa230…5f3fbacked Yes	3c	1,100$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.95	35	17.1%6 W · 29 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	-5.4%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked Yes	2c	1,050$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.8	154	35.1%54 W · 100 L	+6.7wins	+0.04per pick	31cpaid	-9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x28aa…413abacked Yes	1c	1,038$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-68.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3cca…c831backed Yes	1c	1,020$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	468	21.2%99 W · 369 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7e27…ef09backed Yes	7c	1,003$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74	67	11.9%8 W · 59 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-22.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	4c	1,000$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.58	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b2b…5752backed Yes	10c	1,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	+0.2wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-63.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc589…5614backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	173	10.4%18 W · 155 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	+11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x15bc…398cbacked Yes	2c	999.99$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7076…7e6cbacked Yes	7c	986.22$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.06	104	14.4%15 W · 89 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe3b5…10eabacked Yes	2c	972.94$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	15	13.3%2 W · 13 L	+0.9wins	+0.06per pick	7cpaid	+108.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x542d…8999backed Yes	2c	923.16$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	4cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd60f…b6c4backed Yes	3c	894.27$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.51	26	23.1%6 W · 20 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	-1.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes	3c	888.13$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.48	176	5.1%9 W · 167 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	-19%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbdb9…1418backed Yes	4c	822.4$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	259	44.4%115 W · 144 L	+10.3wins	+0.04per pick	40cpaid	+21%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes	8c	782.38$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.21	788	11.5%91 W · 697 L	-33.7wins	-0.04per pick	16cpaid	-42.4%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa9b7…f43cbacked Yes	2c	731.98$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.98	88	22.7%20 W · 68 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	2c	728.79$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	567	8.1%46 W · 521 L	+12.2wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-2.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	3c	649.97$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.32	899	10.2%92 W · 807 L	-3.9wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x70c7…e672backed Yes	2c	632.72$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.1wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-60.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8729…7a5bbacked Yes	2c	631.27$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.73	21	4.8%1 W · 20 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-51.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2d3…a1a2backed Yes	5c	630$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.5	37	0%0 W · 37 L	-2.0wins	-0.05per pick	5cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x118c…74c5backed Yes	8c	624.43$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-4.5wins	-0.14per pick	30cpaid	-54.1%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x612d…3fd1backed Yes	6c	600$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked Yes	3c	596.64$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.46	89	15.7%14 W · 75 L	+5.3wins	+0.06per pick	10cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4de7…a074backed Yes	4c	557.73$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	25	16%4 W · 21 L	+0.6wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	9c	555.56$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	330	29.4%97 W · 233 L	-3.0wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x665b…73babacked Yes	8c	551.69$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.14	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcce6…89bcbacked Yes	7c	525.79$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.5	13	0%0 W · 13 L	-1.6wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x46d7…5487backed Yes	3c	503$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.17	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	-54.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4224…6babbacked Yes	10c	500$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	26	26.9%7 W · 19 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	-57.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb5bc…96c0backed Yes	2c	500$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	104	4.8%5 W · 99 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+55.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event