Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xaad196b8089a45b32c3deaf9b367a30de9cb525d30fa73b27d109933934324af

Rebuilt 11 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Feb 20, 2026, ESTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $324,117
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $121,539

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $324,117 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 52 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x0873…09e8backed Yes	0c	15,331$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.33	169	0%0 W · 169 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf16a…1e3cbacked Yes	0c	15,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+1.2wins	+0.18per pick	11cpaid	-12.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes	0c	10,665$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.33	274	0.4%1 W · 273 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	+257.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	1c	10,451$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xce68…f6b8backed Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	102	7.8%8 W · 94 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-7.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdeaf…dbaabacked Yes	2c	10,000$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	10	10%1 W · 9 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	4cpaid	+100%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	8,553$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$197.92	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	7,423$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	6c	6,446$369 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368.87	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3cb0…4c27backed Yes	1c	6,200$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.71	504	5.2%26 W · 478 L	+10.0wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+44.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	2c	5,237$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.92	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2246…dd6fbacked Yes	1c	4,821$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.79	31	16.1%5 W · 26 L	+1.2wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-21.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	4,472$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.3	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	4,139$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.34	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	2,666$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.86	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3b8d…42c5backed Yes	1c	2,500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.14	519	8.3%43 W · 476 L	+6.4wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	1c	2,293$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.55	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa6c0…dd68backed Yes	1c	2,109$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.3wins	-0.09per pick	9cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes	2c	2,082$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.05	730	4.5%33 W · 697 L	-7.7wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-64.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfe0b…7341backed Yes	2c	2,072$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.16	340	8.2%28 W · 312 L	-3.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-31.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4e53…5a39backed Yes	2c	2,015$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.29	144	11.1%16 W · 128 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	10cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	1c	2,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	1c	2,000$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	4c	1,934$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.59	126	14.3%18 W · 108 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	2c	1,928$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.45	2,163	3.9%85 W · 2,078 L	+5.8wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	4c	1,800$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.58	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8154…3634backed Yes	6c	1,155$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.35	231	7.4%17 W · 214 L	-2.9wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2d…f8aebacked Yes	1c	1,029$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.21	38	5.3%2 W · 36 L	+1.5wins	+0.04per pick	1cpaid	+471%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x15bc…398cbacked Yes	2c	1,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	5c	999.99$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2377…1481backed Yes	6c	964.16$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	172	8.7%15 W · 157 L	+0.3wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfdd1…1829backed Yes	2c	926.15$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.7	84	9.5%8 W · 76 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	-15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a97…4800backed Yes	6c	902.67$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.06	686	15.7%108 W · 578 L	-18.0wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-40%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x665b…73babacked Yes	6c	898.72$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.5	36	22.2%8 W · 28 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-62.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	6c	887.24$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes	2c	800$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.9	118	5.9%7 W · 111 L	+2.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x39be…5e7bbacked Yes	2c	539.91$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.38	3	66.7%2 W · 1 L	+0.9wins	+0.31per pick	36cpaid	+50.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	2c	525.22$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.68	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5a45…f628backed Yes	3c	521.56$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.21	212	13.2%28 W · 184 L	-7.5wins	-0.04per pick	17cpaid	-38.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes	3c	500.11$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.34	412	20.6%85 W · 327 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6d3b…6ba5backed Yes	3c	499.97$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	18	0%0 W · 18 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	7cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8778…73febacked Yes	4c	470.13$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	56	12.5%7 W · 49 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	12cpaid	+25.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x05f2…95debacked Yes	3c	411$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.97	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.7wins	-0.22per pick	22cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x0184…23f6backed Yes	3c	360$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.24	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.1wins	+0.04per pick	30cpaid	+75.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d0f…bea9backed Yes	5c	350$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.85	278	11.9%33 W · 245 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	+64.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe74e…f676backed Yes	4c	319.77$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	12	0%0 W · 12 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf52b…5bf3backed Yes	3c	299.98$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.2	76	7.9%6 W · 70 L	-3.5wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	4c	261.42$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadc5…5b2ebacked Yes	6c	250$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.5	30	13.3%4 W · 26 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-53.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x71d8…3102backed Yes	6c	244.59$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.3	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.11per pick	22cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b07…da13backed Yes	6c	232.76$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.38	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.1wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xba7e…5f27backed Yes	6c	213.28$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.37	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.3wins	-0.14per pick	14cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from February 13 to February 20, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event