TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xf52b…5bf3

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
113
Categories scored
6
Categories below 50
5

Best Category: Venezuela, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Venezuela at 51 out of 100; worst Dota2 at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweetslast resolved Aug 22, 2026, EDT767.9%6 W · 70 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 76 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.55
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$42
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$21
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 18 to August 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$37.1
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.16
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.33
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$42.45
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+945%+$189
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.76
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.52
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.83
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.72
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.66
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.68
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT+455.6%+$152.63
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 14 to July 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$54.65
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 3 to July 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.9
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.4
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.15
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 30 to July 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.37
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.25
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.67
Showing 25 of 76 picks, newest first.
Dota2last resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT2825%7 W · 21 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick41cpaid-55.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit (BO5) - The International Playoffsbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$13
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs Team Spirit - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.4
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.07
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs TEAM VISION - Game 1 Winnerbacked TEAM VISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+52.3%+$15.37
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$82.01
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.11
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Team Yandex - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.3
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs BoomBoys (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked BoomBoys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.67
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs BoomBoys - Game 2 Winnerbacked TEAM VISION · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Dota 2: TEAM VISION vs BoomBoys - Game 1 Winnerbacked BoomBoys · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$11
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Playoffsbacked Iron Wing · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.05
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winnerbacked LGD Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.36
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Elimination Roundbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$10.64
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Team Resilience - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.51
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Team Spirit (BO3) - The International Group Stagebacked Team Spirit · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Falcons (BO3) - The International Group Stagebacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$7.16
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winnerbacked Iron Wing · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.15
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Aurora - Game 2 Winnerbacked Aurora · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.18
Dota 2: BoomBoys vs Team Falcons - Game 2 Winnerbacked Team Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.97
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Liquid (BO3) - The International Group Stagebacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+66.4%+$7.69
Dota 2: Iron Wing vs Team Liquid - Game 2 Winnerbacked Iron Wing · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.78
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs Vici Gaming (BO3) - The International Group Stagebacked Nigma Galaxy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT+56.5%+$25.37
Dota 2: OG vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Group Stagebacked HULIGANI · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.7
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex (BO3) - The International Group Stagebacked Team Yandex · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.92
Dota 2: Aurora vs Team Yandex - Game 2 Winnerbacked Aurora · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+150%+$18
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-46.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro mugshot released by January 9?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST+49.3%+$7.37
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tennis Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tennis — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Australian Open Men's: Carlos Alcaraz vs Novak Djokovicbacked Djokovic · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$162Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$162.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Feb 14, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$22
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.