TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$234,454
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$129,558

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $234,454 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes6c17,724$1,027 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,027.4653522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes4c7,517$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.9119215.6%30 W · 162 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-53.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes1c7,000$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5412810.9%14 W · 114 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-61.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes4c5,900$231 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.3732615.6%51 W · 275 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-62.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes10c5,827$608 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$607.841230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes2c5,791$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.852,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes1c5,740$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.791194.2%5 W · 114 L-1.7wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-39.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9e1a…e20abacked Yes2c5,692$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100147.1%1 W · 13 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick11cpaid-62.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13e1…0805backed Yes3c5,368$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.311216.7%2 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-71.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes1c5,321$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.331834.4%8 W · 175 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+235.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes10c4,711$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$450.1912227%33 W · 89 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-50.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes1c4,500$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5251410.5%54 W · 460 L+17.3wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+22.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes3c3,983$124 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.251,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes2c3,845$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.45535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes4c3,789$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.471,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes10c3,700$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$359.0945911.3%52 W · 407 L-6.1wins-0.01per pick13cpaid-13.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes3c3,169$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$80.1263821.5%137 W · 501 L+1.7wins0.00per pick21cpaid-25.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe608…f6e8backed Yes1c2,862$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.027252.8%38 W · 34 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick45cpaid-5.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf1d8…8dd3backed Yes19c2,685$518 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$518.076230.6%19 W · 43 L+5.2wins+0.08per pick22cpaid+19.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes2c2,513$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.3310710.3%11 W · 96 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick7cpaid+74.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes6c2,236$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.833422.2%74 W · 260 L+7.5wins+0.02per pick20cpaid+27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes2c2,027$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.141,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa230…1cdbbacked Yes1c2,000$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.6310521.9%23 W · 82 L+3.1wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+24.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes2c1,901$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.642785%14 W · 264 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-89.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1f99…ee76backed Yes1c1,847$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.27234.3%1 W · 22 L-1.5wins-0.07per pick11cpaid-80.1%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes2c1,551$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9313911.5%16 W · 123 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-25.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,460$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.672,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes19c1,288$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24913215.9%21 W · 111 L+0.5wins0.00per pick16cpaid+15.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes1c1,154$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1228912.8%37 W · 252 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes1c1,081$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.312176%13 W · 204 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-39.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0124…473abacked Yes9c1,066$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001414.3%2 W · 12 L+0.7wins+0.05per pick9cpaid+11.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes10c1,023$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.8979811.3%90 W · 708 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes8c1,021$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.3973215.2%111 W · 621 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes20c1,010$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20023217.7%41 W · 191 L-2.5wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-32.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes2c1,000$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2023222.4%52 W · 180 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4d3d…5047backed Yes3c989.14$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.651565.8%9 W · 147 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick5cpaid+58%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes2c930.64$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.1988610.3%91 W · 795 L-4.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes2c923.94$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.4510143.6%44 W · 57 L+4.6wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-13.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes1c900$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.829113.1%38 W · 253 L-0.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-32.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf52b…5bf3backed Yes5c872.46$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.45767.9%6 W · 70 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-30.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes3c855.5$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.411,03811.1%115 W · 923 L+4.7wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes8c827.15$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.1488017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes19c824.37$159 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.3914022.1%31 W · 109 L+5.3wins+0.04per pick18cpaid+22.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes17c807.2$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.0512914%18 W · 111 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid+6.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x186c…1d32backed Yes7c770.41$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.51533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes13c755.14$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.324829.2%14 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x633f…0e01backed Yes10c685.58$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.369226.1%24 W · 68 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-10.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No80c600$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12054675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes9c589.91$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.2688018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7c70…f5e1backed Yes8c562.5$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45425%1 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick15cpaid-15.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa849…f79fbacked Yes18c549.99$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.1633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick27cpaid+36.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb466…4953backed Yes14c549.97$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.591225%3 W · 9 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+307.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes2c547.9$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1042110%42 W · 379 L+1.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd928…23cabacked Yes7c501.75$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.194714.9%7 W · 40 L-1.7wins-0.04per pick19cpaid-38.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x31fb…edf2backed Yes8c500$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.427334.2%25 W · 48 L+4.8wins+0.07per pick28cpaid-13%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes20c497.53$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10033527.8%93 W · 242 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes5c452.38$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.144112.2%5 W · 36 L+2.9wins+0.07per pick5cpaid+102.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xeb50…f025backed Yes7c392.13$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28110%0 W · 11 L-1.4wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xbbb3…037dbacked Yes8c384.61$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.593013.3%4 W · 26 L-1.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-29.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x339d…06dabacked Yes3c373.23$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.598821.6%19 W · 69 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick19cpaid-9.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd97f…7813backed Yes8c372.35$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.9715928.3%45 W · 114 L-3.7wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-17.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes14c372.31$51 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.9517419%33 W · 141 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes14c325$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.8357621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7acd…1086backed Yes3c322.64$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101308.5%11 W · 119 L+3.1wins+0.02per pick6cpaid+95.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b2…bab5backed Yes8c315.46$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.94825%2 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+80.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee50…11e6backed Yes11c296.84$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.736420.3%13 W · 51 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb9df…d830backed Yes12c290.65$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.5316017.5%28 W · 132 L-2.4wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-32%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes14c281.06$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.326113.8%36 W · 225 L-0.5wins0.00per pick14cpaid-1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5553…5111backed Yes7c278.06$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.281735.3%6 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.07per pick28cpaid+11.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1ba…b1edbacked Yes16c243.15$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$39.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes9c240$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.871557.7%12 W · 143 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-31.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes7c229.38$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.97716.9%13 W · 64 L+1.6wins+0.02per pick15cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes17c200$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.7315128.5%43 W · 108 L+0.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid+21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc55f…9475backed Yes10c200$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192020%4 W · 16 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick14cpaid+20.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0633…5704backed Yes7c199.99$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146011.7%7 W · 53 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick11cpaid+13.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72be…67b8backed Yes7c199.96$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.99724.7%24 W · 73 L+4.3wins+0.04per pick20cpaid+21.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes12c173.23$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8742424.5%104 W · 320 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes16c155.71$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.1446137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes16c145.59$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.7335024%84 W · 266 L-10.5wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-14.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc191…0f9abacked Yes19c134.36$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$253724.3%9 W · 28 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick28cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3fcc…5c9bbacked Yes13c128$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.06130%0 W · 13 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes13c125$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7584616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3fae…ef5fbacked Yes19c106.55$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205026%13 W · 37 L+2.2wins+0.04per pick22cpaid-1.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58c0…e64fbacked Yes14c100$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.699126.4%24 W · 67 L+6.0wins+0.07per pick20cpaid+33.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes15c94.97$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2815817.7%28 W · 130 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb5a…1537backed Yes17c79.84$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.215918.9%30 W · 129 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-29.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1786…a1e1backed Yes17c60.61$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.321915.8%3 W · 16 L-1.2wins-0.06per pick22cpaid-34.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9816…833ebacked Yes21c50.8$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.4119127.7%53 W · 138 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.