Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf71449439461b7a6581442187c0e199998f05455a94cd0aafe2a8a2c1d8458e9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $234,454
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $129,558
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $234,454 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 88 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 6c | 17,724$1,027 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,027.46 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 4c | 7,517$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$309.91 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 1c | 7,000$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 4c | 5,900$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$231.37 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 10c | 5,827$608 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.8 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 2c | 5,791$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.85 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,740$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.79 | 119 | 4.2%5 W · 114 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1a…e20abacked Yes | 2c | 5,692$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13e1…0805backed Yes | 3c | 5,368$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.31 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -71.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe089…ad3abacked Yes | 1c | 5,321$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.33 | 183 | 4.4%8 W · 175 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +235.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes | 10c | 4,711$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450.19 | 122 | 27%33 W · 89 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17f1…0528backed Yes | 1c | 4,500$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 514 | 10.5%54 W · 460 L | +17.3wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +22.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 3c | 3,983$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.25 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 2c | 3,845$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.4 | 553 | 5.6%31 W · 522 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 4c | 3,789$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.47 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6df7…afb0backed Yes | 10c | 3,700$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$359.09 | 459 | 11.3%52 W · 407 L | -6.1wins | -0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -13.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 3c | 3,169$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.12 | 638 | 21.5%137 W · 501 L | +1.7wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe608…f6e8backed Yes | 1c | 2,862$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.02 | 72 | 52.8%38 W · 34 L | +5.5wins | +0.08per pick | 45cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf1d8…8dd3backed Yes | 19c | 2,685$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.07 | 62 | 30.6%19 W · 43 L | +5.2wins | +0.08per pick | 22cpaid | +19.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…cf59backed Yes | 2c | 2,513$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.33 | 107 | 10.3%11 W · 96 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 6c | 2,236$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.8 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 2c | 2,027$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.14 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa230…1cdbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.63 | 105 | 21.9%23 W · 82 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +24.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,901$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 278 | 5%14 W · 264 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f99…ee76backed Yes | 1c | 1,847$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.27 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 11cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3030…86aebacked Yes | 2c | 1,551$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.93 | 139 | 11.5%16 W · 123 L | -3.1wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,460$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.67 | 2,163 | 3.9%85 W · 2,078 L | +5.8wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes | 19c | 1,288$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5578backed Yes | 1c | 1,154$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 289 | 12.8%37 W · 252 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 1c | 1,081$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.31 | 217 | 6%13 W · 204 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -39.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0124…473abacked Yes | 9c | 1,066$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 9cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 10c | 1,023$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.89 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 8c | 1,021$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.39 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f7f…6450backed Yes | 20c | 1,010$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 232 | 17.7%41 W · 191 L | -2.5wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d3d…5047backed Yes | 3c | 989.14$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.65 | 156 | 5.8%9 W · 147 L | +0.9wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +58%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 2c | 930.64$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.19 | 886 | 10.3%91 W · 795 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x122c…fbedbacked Yes | 2c | 923.94$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.45 | 101 | 43.6%44 W · 57 L | +4.6wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -13.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa259…7e5abacked Yes | 1c | 900$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.8 | 291 | 13.1%38 W · 253 L | -0.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -32.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf52b…5bf3backed Yes | 5c | 872.46$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.45 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | -3.5wins | -0.05per pick | 12cpaid | -30.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 3c | 855.5$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.41 | 1,038 | 11.1%115 W · 923 L | +4.7wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 8c | 827.15$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.14 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfee1…746fbacked Yes | 19c | 824.37$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.39 | 140 | 22.1%31 W · 109 L | +5.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes | 17c | 807.2$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.05 | 129 | 14%18 W · 111 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | +6.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…1d32backed Yes | 7c | 770.41$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.5 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes | 13c | 755.14$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.32 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x633f…0e01backed Yes | 10c | 685.58$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.36 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 80c | 600$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 9c | 589.91$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.26 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c70…f5e1backed Yes | 8c | 562.5$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.10per pick | 15cpaid | -15.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…f79fbacked Yes | 18c | 549.99$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb466…4953backed Yes | 14c | 549.97$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.59 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +307.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 2c | 547.9$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd928…23cabacked Yes | 7c | 501.75$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 19cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31fb…edf2backed Yes | 8c | 500$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.42 | 73 | 34.2%25 W · 48 L | +4.8wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -13%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 20c | 497.53$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes | 5c | 452.38$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.14 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | +2.9wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +102.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeb50…f025backed Yes | 7c | 392.13$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbbb3…037dbacked Yes | 8c | 384.61$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.59 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 18cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x339d…06dabacked Yes | 3c | 373.23$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.59 | 88 | 21.6%19 W · 69 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd97f…7813backed Yes | 8c | 372.35$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 159 | 28.3%45 W · 114 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 14c | 372.31$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 14c | 325$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.83 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7acd…1086backed Yes | 3c | 322.64$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 130 | 8.5%11 W · 119 L | +3.1wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | +95.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b2…bab5backed Yes | 8c | 315.46$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.94 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +80.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee50…11e6backed Yes | 11c | 296.84$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.73 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…d830backed Yes | 12c | 290.65$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.53 | 160 | 17.5%28 W · 132 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…2cd8backed Yes | 14c | 281.06$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.3 | 261 | 13.8%36 W · 225 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5553…5111backed Yes | 7c | 278.06$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.28 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 28cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ba…b1edbacked Yes | 16c | 243.15$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked Yes | 9c | 240$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 155 | 7.7%12 W · 143 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x76b8…4c9cbacked Yes | 7c | 229.38$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 77 | 16.9%13 W · 64 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 15cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 17c | 200$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.73 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc55f…9475backed Yes | 10c | 200$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 14cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0633…5704backed Yes | 7c | 199.99$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 60 | 11.7%7 W · 53 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | +13.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…67b8backed Yes | 7c | 199.96$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.9 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 12c | 173.23$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 16c | 155.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.14 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed Yes | 16c | 145.59$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.73 | 350 | 24%84 W · 266 L | -10.5wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc191…0f9abacked Yes | 19c | 134.36$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -1.3wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcc…5c9bbacked Yes | 13c | 128$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.06 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 13c | 125$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.75 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3fae…ef5fbacked Yes | 19c | 106.55$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 50 | 26%13 W · 37 L | +2.2wins | +0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…e64fbacked Yes | 14c | 100$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.69 | 91 | 26.4%24 W · 67 L | +6.0wins | +0.07per pick | 20cpaid | +33.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…ba69backed Yes | 15c | 94.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.28 | 158 | 17.7%28 W · 130 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5a…1537backed Yes | 17c | 79.84$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 159 | 18.9%30 W · 129 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1786…a1e1backed Yes | 17c | 60.61$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.32 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -34.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9816…833ebacked Yes | 21c | 50.8$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.41 | 191 | 27.7%53 W · 138 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -9.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.