Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39b1401a201899d8aa624058cb5aeef98a94e116e2c022364d583eb65a32b714

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 21, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $558,196
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $449,358

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $558,196 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 353 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	23c	39,939$9,134 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$30,805.38	186	16.1%30 W · 156 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes	17c	17,811$2,982 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$14,828.96	136	16.2%22 W · 114 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	0c	16,831$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$16,792.09	199	9%18 W · 181 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+174.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	22c	13,830$2,996 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,833.13	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	62c	10,086$6,262 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,823.84	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5285…1cc5backed No	79c	10,060$7,924 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$7,923.94	27	25.9%7 W · 20 L	-2.6wins	-0.10per pick	35cpaid	-28.1%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x24b9…b040backed No	20c	8,918$1,800 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,799.98	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.4wins	-0.19per pick	19cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	30c	8,754$2,603 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,150.65	532	22.7%121 W · 411 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	19c	8,037$1,555 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,482.46	324	15.7%51 W · 273 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	0c	7,958$21 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$7,936.8	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	7,142$248 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,894.41	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	11c	6,476$725 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,750.41	797	11.3%90 W · 707 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	34c	6,030$2,069 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,961.92	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes	29c	5,469$1,589 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,880.89	65	40%26 W · 39 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe40a…e4a2backed No	67c	5,362$3,611 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,611.1	72	56.9%41 W · 31 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	57cpaid	-9.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No	1c	5,033$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.37	625	39.5%247 W · 378 L	+48.1wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked No	5c	4,731$255 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$255.34	994	10.6%105 W · 889 L	-30.0wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x56df…08e2backed Yes	4c	4,673$180 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,492.27	1	100%1 W · 0 L	+1.0wins	+0.96per pick	4cpaid	+2,491.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes	0c	4,637$11 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$4,626.31	151	5.3%8 W · 143 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	+227.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	22c	4,354$958 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,396.66	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed No	77c	4,030$3,094 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,094.41	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5e8…8354backed Yes	17c	2,956$501 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,455.26	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+1.9wins	+0.12per pick	14cpaid	+347%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked No	71c	2,848$2,032 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,032.26	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-46%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	6c	2,654$168 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,485.54	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5734…06babacked Yes	32c	2,530$818 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,712.3	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	+64%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	29c	2,521$720 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,801.39	119	26.9%32 W · 87 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a4…4967backed No	74c	2,515$1,874 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,873.73	160	56.9%91 W · 69 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	2c	2,500$38 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,462.5	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	13c	2,500$325 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,175	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3b34…a646backed Yes	58c	2,471$1,433 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,037.71	11	45.5%5 W · 6 L	-1.1wins	-0.10per pick	56cpaid	-23.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	9c	2,412$207 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,205.08	1,060	8.4%89 W · 971 L	+29.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	8c	2,400$190 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,210.26	413	10.7%44 W · 369 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked No	61c	2,391$1,469 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,469.03	140	37.1%52 W · 88 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cd4…30aebacked Yes	13c	2,383$316 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,067.24	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	15c	2,353$362 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,990.58	882	10.3%91 W · 791 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes	16c	2,249$371 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,877.61	50	24%12 W · 38 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa67b…af43backed Yes	42c	2,163$900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,263.46	159	22.6%36 W · 123 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes	13c	2,160$284 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,876.5	316	21.8%69 W · 247 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x633f…0e01backed Yes	28c	2,146$604 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,541.77	92	26.1%24 W · 68 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	20c	2,092$410 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,682.46	876	18.4%161 W · 715 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	2,071$23 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,048.33	781	8.7%68 W · 713 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked No	22c	2,033$443 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$442.96	158	44.9%71 W · 87 L	+12.4wins	+0.08per pick	37cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc5f5…e714backed No	2c	2,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	83	24.1%20 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes	39c	1,998$780 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,218.32	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	21c	1,987$412 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,575.25	879	17.2%151 W · 728 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed No	1c	1,930$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.48	149	14.1%21 W · 128 L	+7.1wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4262…0ef2backed Yes	6c	1,919$115 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,804.27	51	19.6%10 W · 41 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	+69.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	38c	1,869$711 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,157.88	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4355…c5d4backed No	14c	1,800$258 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.2	50	14%7 W · 43 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-61.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	12c	1,783$216 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,566.67	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	20c	1,744$347 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,396.72	574	20.9%120 W · 454 L	+9.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No	67c	1,740$1,171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,170.89	219	59.8%131 W · 88 L	+4.2wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes	29c	1,722$505 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,217.03	149	28.2%42 W · 107 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x408f…8c91backed No	80c	1,663$1,324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,323.66	5	40%2 W · 3 L	-1.1wins	-0.21per pick	61cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes	57c	1,662$942 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$719.92	159	29.6%47 W · 112 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes	31c	1,659$512 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,147.61	119	32.8%39 W · 80 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe21e…4d48backed No	1c	1,647$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.58	30	10%3 W · 27 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	-73.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc518…2594backed No	29c	1,642$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$479.72	167	50.3%84 W · 83 L	+3.5wins	+0.02per pick	48cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	8c	1,600$124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,476.06	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc8d3…8c21backed Yes	16c	1,578$255 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,323.07	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	9c	1,553$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,410.04	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes	14c	1,533$220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,313.4	140	22.1%31 W · 109 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x99a6…6558backed Yes	26c	1,532$400 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,131.66	73	37%27 W · 46 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	38cpaid	-17.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x65ab…273dbacked Yes	78c	1,500$1,176 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$324.14	204	32.4%66 W · 138 L	-11.3wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No	21c	1,463$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$308.47	189	49.2%93 W · 96 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97cd…227dbacked No	51c	1,456$737 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$737.08	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+1.7wins	+0.10per pick	37cpaid	+233%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8eff…fb57backed Yes	69c	1,445$1,000 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$445.05	6	83.3%5 W · 1 L	+2.8wins	+0.47per pick	37cpaid	+179%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0x461e…dd77backed Yes	64c	1,402$900 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$502.01	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	29cpaid	-74%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	24c	1,337$320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,016.22	405	19.8%80 W · 325 L	-18.3wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5a21…9318backed No	54c	1,270$680 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$679.92	386	48.2%186 W · 200 L	+15.7wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfbd8…4027backed No	2c	1,267$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.76	197	56.9%112 W · 85 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	56cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	72c	1,257$904 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$903.94	542	74.9%406 W · 136 L	+34.0wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xbb19…e061backed Yes	65c	1,254$816 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$437.46	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	-0.2wins	-0.08per pick	41cpaid	-48.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	35c	1,251$435 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$816.13	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x08d9…80a4backed Yes	40c	1,241$500 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$741.66	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	+67.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes	50c	1,224$615 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$608.65	147	51%75 W · 72 L	+18.0wins	+0.12per pick	39cpaid	+29.4%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked No	47c	1,223$574 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$573.68	101	43.6%44 W · 57 L	+4.6wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb4d1…02d5backed Yes	5c	1,204$54 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,149.68	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.13per pick	12cpaid	+454.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa301…bcbdbacked No	67c	1,187$798 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$797.58	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes	44c	1,176$513 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$662.92	232	22.4%52 W · 180 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc959…c37fbacked Yes	19c	1,154$220 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$934.01	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	-2.9wins	-0.10per pick	36cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	26c	1,128$293 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$834.24	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x028d…feccbacked Yes	55c	1,075$587 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$488.39	66	22.7%15 W · 51 L	-4.4wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x44b7…2e99backed Yes	75c	1,027$768 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$259.64	15	40%6 W · 9 L	+1.6wins	+0.10per pick	30cpaid	-3.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked No	45c	999.97$453 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$453.49	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13d8…06c4backed Yes	11c	999.96$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$889.97	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0186…40edbacked Yes	39c	998.74$385 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$613.38	97	33%32 W · 65 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb36…0d51backed Yes	35c	996.49$347 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$649.85	69	21.7%15 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	+26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2692…38e2backed Yes	4c	993.67$40 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$953.67	191	18.8%36 W · 155 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	+24%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed92…5c02backed Yes	23c	971.03$223 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$748.48	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No	66c	966.17$641 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$640.57	563	29.8%168 W · 395 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes	26c	962.97$247 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$715.77	292	27.7%81 W · 211 L	+7.3wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd8aa…a2ccbacked Yes	22c	959.47$206 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$753.16	74	36.5%27 W · 47 L	+2.5wins	+0.03per pick	33cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	15c	959.18$143 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$816.06	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcbf3…aaa0backed Yes	42c	957.64$404 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$553.72	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	4c	915.49$33 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$881.99	288	12.8%37 W · 251 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	900$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$888.27	552	5.6%31 W · 521 L	+15.6wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+42.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes	22c	897.94$198 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$700.28	424	24.5%104 W · 320 L	-13.9wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x77d5…eacebacked Yes	12c	895.29$110 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$785.29	100	8%8 W · 92 L	+3.2wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8f71…719abacked Yes	80c	880.26$701 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$179.69	22	40.9%9 W · 13 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	47cpaid	-21%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event