Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7fe72ba294ac5061de14d3b10000103f65144c76e7698084325acbf3b41a8385

Rebuilt 1 hour ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 19, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $210,546
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $77,141

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $210,546 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 25 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	26,555$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.82	1,096	8.2%90 W · 1,006 L	+28.7wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	1c	19,359$233 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.39	227	15%34 W · 193 L	-4.5wins	-0.02per pick	17cpaid	-56.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	2c	8,800$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.05	350	16%56 W · 294 L	-8.7wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-58.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	3c	7,723$222 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$222.1	556	22.5%125 W · 431 L	-19.8wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	6,059$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.83	577	5.5%32 W · 545 L	+15.8wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+37.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	1c	5,728$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.19	1,809	7.4%133 W · 1,676 L	-24.7wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	0c	5,532$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.44	857	16.5%141 W · 716 L	+25.0wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeb50…f025backed Yes	1c	5,493$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	11	0%0 W · 11 L	-1.4wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	5,014$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.4	813	11.1%90 W · 723 L	+29.7wins	+0.04per pick	7cpaid	+30.7%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes	1c	4,786$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.32	123	10.6%13 W · 110 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+68.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	0c	4,393$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.43	197	4.1%8 W · 189 L	+3.3wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+211.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	1c	3,530$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.48	659	21.5%142 W · 517 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes	3c	3,196$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	138	16.7%23 W · 115 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	16cpaid	+21.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f7f…6450backed Yes	3c	2,672$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.9	232	17.7%41 W · 191 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	1c	2,505$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.11	1,061	10.7%113 W · 948 L	-34.2wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-59%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	1c	2,237$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.58	136	26.5%36 W · 100 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	25cpaid	-49.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	1c	1,784$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	285	11.2%32 W · 253 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-22.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb466…4953backed Yes	1c	1,767$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.59	23	30.4%7 W · 16 L	+0.8wins	+0.03per pick	27cpaid	+144.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe559…1300backed Yes	1c	1,680$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	94	26.6%25 W · 69 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	32cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	1c	1,640$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.34	175	7.4%13 W · 162 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-37.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x99a4…d89fbacked Yes	1c	1,401$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	11	63.6%7 W · 4 L	+1.8wins	+0.16per pick	48cpaid	-0.7%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	1,163$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.18	2,589	13.1%340 W · 2,249 L	+4.5wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3821…bde6backed Yes	2c	1,107$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.96	33	6.1%2 W · 31 L	-1.2wins	-0.04per pick	10cpaid	-42%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c70…f5e1backed Yes	2c	1,054$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	+0.4wins	+0.04per pick	29cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee50…11e6backed Yes	3c	350.31$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	65	20%13 W · 52 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-9.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event