Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8d8cfacfd90c29ddad706b5581527c5a052b6de324c0d0d4b95f3a388a0f3159

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 20, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $409,184
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $249,654

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $409,184 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 234 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	18c	20,991$3,812 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,811.96	186	16.1%30 W · 156 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2061…8ec9backed Yes	1c	18,575$163 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.33	136	16.2%22 W · 114 L	+3.4wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-59.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5e8…8354backed Yes	12c	11,869$1,403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,403.3	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+1.9wins	+0.12per pick	14cpaid	+347%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	9c	10,271$960 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$959.63	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	1c	10,212$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.79	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes	18c	9,901$1,750 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,750.02	161	22.4%36 W · 125 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	8,028$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.99	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeff9…05fdbacked Yes	6c	8,000$496 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$496	164	27.4%45 W · 119 L	+4.7wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	5c	7,638$389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$389.47	324	15.7%51 W · 273 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	4c	7,025$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$295.99	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	13c	6,627$876 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$876.23	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	29c	5,964$1,721 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,721.37	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf37b…4edabacked Yes	0c	5,804$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.32	62	6.5%4 W · 58 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	8cpaid	-40.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	5,790$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.71	552	5.6%31 W · 521 L	+15.6wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+42.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc21e…e6d3backed Yes	20c	4,860$951 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$950.87	144	27.1%39 W · 105 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	29cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes	21c	4,232$905 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$904.98	65	40%26 W · 39 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	10c	4,144$426 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$425.55	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	19c	3,810$716 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$715.65	532	22.7%121 W · 411 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	12c	3,683$451 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$451.11	876	18.4%161 W · 715 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	11c	3,512$387 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$386.88	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	2c	2,888$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.75	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	15c	2,804$418 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$418.23	879	17.2%151 W · 728 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	13c	2,609$334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$334.1	574	20.9%120 W · 454 L	+9.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes	37c	2,583$956 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$956.35	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes	8c	2,519$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.84	292	27.7%81 W · 211 L	+7.3wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	4c	2,500$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	26c	2,500$652 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$651.9	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	4c	2,481$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.3	154	7.8%12 W · 142 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	4c	2,476$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.27	413	10.7%44 W · 369 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	14c	2,421$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$339.88	994	10.6%105 W · 889 L	-30.0wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc8d3…8c21backed Yes	10c	2,394$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.43	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa67b…af43backed Yes	42c	2,384$1,000 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,000	159	22.6%36 W · 123 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes	11c	2,367$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.95	316	21.8%69 W · 247 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes	15c	2,315$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340.46	119	32.8%39 W · 80 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x114a…f1d1backed Yes	24c	2,281$540 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540.03	38	13.2%5 W · 33 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7cd4…30aebacked Yes	5c	2,196$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	0c	2,170$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.57	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x682d…4cd6backed Yes	2c	2,100$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.95	149	14.1%21 W · 128 L	+7.1wins	+0.05per pick	9cpaid	-33.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4262…0ef2backed Yes	4c	2,049$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.6	51	19.6%10 W · 41 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	+69.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	5c	2,037$93 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.96	797	11.3%90 W · 707 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf6e6…b86bbacked Yes	1c	2,010$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.58	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	-0.01per pick	1cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	3c	2,005$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.08	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4355…c5d4backed Yes	11c	2,000$218 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.19	50	14%7 W · 43 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-61.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	8c	1,997$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.14	312	24.7%77 W · 235 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes	8c	1,982$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.63	174	19%33 W · 141 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	1,713$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.01	882	10.3%91 W · 791 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	19c	1,683$321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320.53	405	19.8%80 W · 325 L	-18.3wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	6c	1,600$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.3	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x79cb…331ebacked Yes	1c	1,549$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.17	456	8.3%38 W · 418 L	+1.3wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	8c	1,500$123 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.01	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes	16c	1,480$238 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$237.84	140	22.1%31 W · 109 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	22c	1,455$321 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$320.51	119	26.9%32 W · 87 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	11c	1,454$166 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.75	1,040	13.7%142 W · 898 L	+38.1wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	13c	1,443$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.49	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2e7…1b5bbacked Yes	14c	1,359$195 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.76	149	28.2%42 W · 107 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	-19.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No	66c	1,326$872 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$454.28	219	59.8%131 W · 88 L	+4.2wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes	39c	1,323$516 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$516.01	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes	5c	1,276$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.51	274	17.5%48 W · 226 L	+11.0wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes	10c	1,200$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	197	31%61 W · 136 L	+13.8wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	+22%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	5c	1,182$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.57	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	2c	1,180$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.44	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5f5…e714backed Yes	37c	1,106$413 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$412.71	83	24.1%20 W · 63 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-17.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes	25c	1,106$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.29	173	35.3%61 W · 112 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	27c	1,000$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.96	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x31fb…edf2backed Yes	1c	1,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.08	73	34.2%25 W · 48 L	+4.8wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	-13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x13d8…06c4backed Yes	14c	999.98$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	10c	992.88$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.32	1,036	11.1%115 W · 921 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	2c	980$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.87	1,060	8.4%89 W · 971 L	+29.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed No	78c	976.69$757 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$219.65	176	31.8%56 W · 120 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed41…38afbacked Yes	17c	975.88$167 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.06	128	25.8%33 W · 95 L	+7.1wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x504d…c5a4backed Yes	2c	959.59$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	14c	953.4$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.43	630	21.7%137 W · 493 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb36…0d51backed Yes	21c	897.88$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$186	69	21.7%15 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	+26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x5734…06babacked Yes	30c	890$266 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$266.1	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	34cpaid	+64%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x708e…9bb1backed Yes	28c	873.28$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.01	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	-0.3wins	-0.01per pick	36cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	80c	873.2$699 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$174.64	542	74.9%406 W · 136 L	+34.0wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes	12c	846.9$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.74	212	22.2%47 W · 165 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	813.99$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.67	781	8.7%68 W · 713 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	10c	765.58$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.03	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x122c…fbedbacked Yes	10c	758.52$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.53	101	43.6%44 W · 57 L	+4.6wins	+0.05per pick	39cpaid	-13.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No	72c	755.99$542 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$213.55	186	76.9%143 W · 43 L	+11.9wins	+0.06per pick	70cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes	15c	705.44$107 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.42	424	24.5%104 W · 320 L	-13.9wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36c6…68d5backed Yes	36c	697.41$250 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$250	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-1.1wins	-0.57per pick	57cpaid	-100%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcbf3…aaa0backed Yes	33c	696.36$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$227.05	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes	15c	656.5$102 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.55	232	22.4%52 W · 180 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1855…f2a7backed Yes	9c	628.08$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.45	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	-46.5%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xaa98…90bbbacked No	69c	619.18$429 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$189.74	125	28%35 W · 90 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	29cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf06d…26f7backed Yes	2c	612.86$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.4	109	11.9%13 W · 96 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-23.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes	8c	600$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46	159	29.6%47 W · 112 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xed92…5c02backed Yes	2c	598.32$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes	17c	589.77$99 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.96	171	26.9%46 W · 125 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	8c	578.15$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	288	12.8%37 W · 251 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes	25c	552.39$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.63	68	32.4%22 W · 46 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2673…5ac9backed Yes	11c	545.58$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.88	178	24.7%44 W · 134 L	+5.5wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+10.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes	10c	531.42$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.48	136	11.8%16 W · 120 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1125…093ebacked Yes	19c	512.03$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.72	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+1.2wins	+0.09per pick	27cpaid	+23.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes	4c	500$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	230	19.1%44 W · 186 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1dc…09c2backed Yes	13c	500$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	129	14%18 W · 111 L	+3.1wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+6.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd928…23cabacked Yes	28c	499.76$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.53	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event