Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xcf4aaa65cf548f0bf28ec33b9a3e99dc2a9282047c8baad6cef9fb1ca9d35519

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Aug 20, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $440,366
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $295,290

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $440,366 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 241 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	1c	28,591$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$272.86	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes	22c	22,900$5,084 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,084.3	161	22.4%36 W · 125 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	21c	19,242$4,093 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,093.17	186	16.1%30 W · 156 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	0c	17,802$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.25	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	1c	14,604$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.6	324	15.7%51 W · 273 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc5e8…8354backed Yes	0c	11,191$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.55	15	26.7%4 W · 11 L	+1.9wins	+0.12per pick	14cpaid	+347%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes	3c	11,000$346 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$345.7	197	31%61 W · 136 L	+13.8wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	+22%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	8c	10,621$837 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$837.39	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9994…03ddbacked Yes	0c	10,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	112	4.5%5 W · 107 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	5cpaid	-67.9%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	15c	5,942$864 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$863.64	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	0c	5,381$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.38	552	5.6%31 W · 521 L	+15.6wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+42.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x02b6…8f5fbacked Yes	0c	5,063$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	105	42.9%45 W · 60 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	44cpaid	-4.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	5c	4,682$257 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$256.51	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	16c	4,677$763 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$762.63	532	22.7%121 W · 411 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	35c	4,312$1,509 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,509.3	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	19c	4,206$809 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$809.47	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b05…8983backed Yes	4c	4,107$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.67	124	21.8%27 W · 97 L	+11.8wins	+0.10per pick	12cpaid	+49.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	8c	3,978$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.61	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes	7c	3,798$273 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.18	119	32.8%39 W · 80 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes	0c	3,581$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.87	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	3c	3,204$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.32	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x21d3…8d3fbacked Yes	31c	3,143$968 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$968.02	65	40%26 W · 39 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	10c	3,000$296 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes	1c	2,654$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.96	292	27.7%81 W · 211 L	+7.3wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	20c	2,567$521 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$521.33	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xed41…38afbacked Yes	6c	2,400$134 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.86	128	25.8%33 W · 95 L	+7.1wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	14c	2,264$316 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$315.96	312	24.7%77 W · 235 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes	19c	2,250$421 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420.85	316	21.8%69 W · 247 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes	5c	2,223$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.03	128	10.9%14 W · 114 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	1c	2,204$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.08	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	2,180$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.3	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	10c	2,057$209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$208.5	876	18.4%161 W · 715 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	20c	2,016$412 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$412.01	630	21.7%137 W · 493 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x114a…f1d1backed Yes	24c	2,000$480 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$480	38	13.2%5 W · 33 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	10c	2,000$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$205.48	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	9c	1,974$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.76	1,040	13.7%142 W · 898 L	+38.1wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No	77c	1,947$1,507 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$439.96	219	59.8%131 W · 88 L	+4.2wins	+0.02per pick	58cpaid	+5.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4262…0ef2backed Yes	15c	1,932$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$297	51	19.6%10 W · 41 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	+69.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x3030…86aebacked Yes	11c	1,837$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.03	136	11.8%16 W · 120 L	-3.0wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-24.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	10c	1,821$188 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.28	574	20.9%120 W · 454 L	+9.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes	28c	1,700$478 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$478	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	10c	1,685$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.87	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes	8c	1,673$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130.06	174	19%33 W · 141 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5a77…f859backed Yes	5c	1,637$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.83	149	12.8%19 W · 130 L	+5.8wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	+30.5%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes	4c	1,589$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67	232	22.4%52 W · 180 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcbf3…aaa0backed Yes	28c	1,550$436 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$436.34	19	21.1%4 W · 15 L	-1.4wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes	31c	1,536$474 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$474.37	173	35.3%61 W · 112 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	6c	1,507$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.75	882	10.3%91 W · 791 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	18c	1,500$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.99	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	1c	1,450$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.04	558	8.2%46 W · 512 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb26f…aa5fbacked Yes	30c	1,415$430 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$430.28	47	19.1%9 W · 38 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	15c	1,361$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202.77	879	17.2%151 W · 728 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	74c	1,338$995 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$342.55	542	74.9%406 W · 136 L	+34.0wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes	23c	1,317$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$301.31	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes	25c	1,255$318 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$317.95	140	22.1%31 W · 109 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x84ee…64b4backed No	66c	1,245$826 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$419.01	6	33.3%2 W · 4 L	-0.9wins	-0.14per pick	48cpaid	-46.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x461e…dd77backed Yes	27c	1,222$330 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$330	6	16.7%1 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.13per pick	29cpaid	-74%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9bbe…91d6backed Yes	3c	1,209$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	227	18.5%42 W · 185 L	+3.0wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-12.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	18c	1,205$216 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215.91	994	10.6%105 W · 889 L	-30.0wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes	12c	1,187$147 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$147	212	22.2%47 W · 165 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	3c	1,161$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.08	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	7c	1,142$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.26	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc8d3…8c21backed Yes	16c	1,106$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$172.34	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	12c	1,081$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127.96	1,036	11.1%115 W · 921 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xb4d1…02d5backed Yes	2c	1,038$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.5wins	+0.13per pick	12cpaid	+454.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac91…97babacked No	77c	1,035$799 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$235.64	2	100%2 W · 0 L	+0.8wins	+0.42per pick	58cpaid	+96.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes	5c	1,011$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.55	125	28%35 W · 90 L	+10.0wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+55.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0x13d8…06c4backed Yes	16c	1,000$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.07	39	12.8%5 W · 34 L	+1.9wins	+0.05per pick	8cpaid	-0.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x31fb…edf2backed Yes	5c	1,000$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.14	73	34.2%25 W · 48 L	+4.8wins	+0.07per pick	28cpaid	-13%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed No	79c	972.63$769 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$204.02	119	26.9%32 W · 87 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7eeb…b6bdbacked Yes	10c	929.94$92 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$92.26	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.09per pick	44cpaid	-46%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	868$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.92	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x514b…6931backed Yes	27c	790.61$212 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.77	104	41.3%43 W · 61 L	+9.5wins	+0.09per pick	32cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	8c	782.07$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.5	288	12.8%37 W · 251 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	13c	777.88$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.01	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97cd…227dbacked No	79c	758.06$598 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$159.62	17	47.1%8 W · 9 L	+1.7wins	+0.10per pick	37cpaid	+233%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5364…c64dbacked No	65c	750$485 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$265.15	151	64.9%98 W · 53 L	+10.2wins	+0.07per pick	58cpaid	+13.2%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	2c	710$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.73	351	12.8%45 W · 306 L	+6.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a79…e2afbacked No	76c	701.99$532 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$169.78	46	39.1%18 W · 28 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	41cpaid	-26.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	4c	679$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.69	154	7.8%12 W · 142 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x77d5…eacebacked Yes	8c	626.13$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.44	100	8%8 W · 92 L	+3.2wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes	15c	624.96$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.62	424	24.5%104 W · 320 L	-13.9wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x08d9…80a4backed Yes	35c	609.27$215 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$215	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+1.5wins	+0.10per pick	23cpaid	+67.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	9c	603$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.99	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x504d…c5a4backed Yes	2c	600.06$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	10	0%0 W · 10 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb36…0d51backed Yes	2c	599.99$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.8	69	21.7%15 W · 54 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	+26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes	35c	582.51$205 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204.7	171	26.9%46 W · 125 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xed92…5c02backed Yes	2c	581.81$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	18	27.8%5 W · 13 L	+0.5wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7cd4…30aebacked Yes	17c	575.1$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	12	25%3 W · 9 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-12.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xeabe…d6edbacked Yes	27c	563.61$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.34	132	24.2%32 W · 100 L	+5.4wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	+26.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes	27c	524.4$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	68	32.4%22 W · 46 L	-2.2wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x544a…dbe1backed Yes	3c	500$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	118	31.4%37 W · 81 L	+6.3wins	+0.05per pick	26cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd928…23cabacked Yes	35c	499.97$177 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$177.07	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	-1.2wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x652e…4a94backed Yes	3c	468.74$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.8	133	23.3%31 W · 102 L	+6.8wins	+0.05per pick	18cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc959…c37fbacked Yes	11c	462.37$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	30	26.7%8 W · 22 L	-2.9wins	-0.10per pick	36cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	7c	456.79$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.42	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed No	75c	453.74$339 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$114.79	140	15.7%22 W · 118 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-56.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c44…8f73backed Yes	8c	450$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.5	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.8wins	-0.17per pick	17cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x633f…0e01backed Yes	24c	445.8$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	92	26.1%24 W · 68 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	28cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	8c	429.05$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.6	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event