TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xbb36…0d51

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
101
Categories scored
5
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: Fifa International, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Fifa International at 56 out of 100; worst World Politics at 48.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweetslast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT6921.7%15 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid+26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Tweets — the 69 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$91.01
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$347Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT+187.5%+$649.85
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$71.86
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$186
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.8
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$36
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$125Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$125.02
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.1
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from August 17 to August 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.6
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$311Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT+48%+$149.22
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$68.07
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$265Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$264.69
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT+886.5%+$416.22
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$57.71
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$105Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+506.6%+$533.5
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.8
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.83
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.39
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$176Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$243.37
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT+314.9%+$157.47
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.6
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.76
Showing 25 of 69 picks, newest first.
Valorantlast resolved Aug 23, 2026, EDT2142.9%9 W · 12 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick38cpaid-6.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Valorant — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: Evil Geniuses vs KRÜ Esports (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Play-Inbacked Evil Geniuses · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 23, 2026, EDT+185.7%+$33.43
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Eintracht Frankfurt (BO3) - VCT EMEA Playoffsbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 22, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$11.67
Valorant: MIBR vs Team Envy (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Play-Inbacked Team Envy · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Valorant: KRÜ Esports vs BESTIA (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Play-Inbacked BESTIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Valorant: Eternal Fire vs Joblife (BO3) - VCT EMEA Play-Insbacked Joblife · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$18.87
Valorant: Cloud9 vs LOUD - Map 2 Winnerbacked Cloud9 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.5
Valorant: BBL Esports vs Gentle Mates (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alphabacked BBL Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$22Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$58.4
Valorant: BBL Esports vs Gentle Mates - Map 2 Winnerbacked Gentle Mates · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$16
Valorant: G2 Esports vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Omegabacked Cloud9 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Valorant: Pcific Esports vs Team Vitality (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Alphabacked Pcific Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.67
Valorant: FURIA Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Alphabacked FURIA Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.02
Valorant: Sentinels vs Cloud9 (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Omegabacked Sentinels · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+42.7%+$32.99
Valorant: Team Liquid vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - VCT EMEA Group Omegabacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.14
Valorant: XLG Gaming vs TEC Esports - Map 1 Winnerbacked XLG Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.56
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stagebacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+178%+$19.3
Valorant: FUT Esports vs NRG - Map 1 Winnerbacked NRG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 10, 2026, EDT+41.6%+$14.91
Valorant: Dragon Ranger Gaming vs XLG Gaming (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stagebacked XLG Gaming · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT+100%+$33.09
Valorant: NRG vs Leviatán Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stagebacked NRG · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.64
Valorant: Team Vitality vs FUT Esports (BO3) - VCT Masters London Group Stagebacked FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.5
Valorant: Team Vitality vs Team Heretics (BO5) - VCT EMEA Playoffsbacked Team Heretics · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 17, 2026, EDT+107.6%+$11.83
All 21 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 19, 2026, EDT966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick47cpaid+21.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 19, 2026, EDT+62.6%+$25.62
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$25
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 24, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$7.04
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 5.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$9.26
France vs. Iraq: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+158.7%+$19.87
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.8
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$14.4
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Uruguay O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.97
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$10.72
All 9 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved May 28, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$27
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.