Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xc09ff99161aeb78f65907571f0d68888141f6bade830eb92f962142ef8bbcd26

Rebuilt 8 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 28, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $391,167
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $275,184

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $391,167 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 351 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	21c	25,157$5,209 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$5,209.1	186	16.1%30 W · 156 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc662…9e37backed Yes	0c	16,700$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.7	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.5wins	-0.27per pick	27cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xed32…df4abacked Yes	3c	12,197$396 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$396.45	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes	21c	9,929$2,121 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,121.26	161	22.4%36 W · 125 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x696e…1c38backed No	78c	8,747$6,796 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,951.05	92	33.7%31 W · 61 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4067…6ffabacked Yes	18c	8,337$1,469 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,468.97	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes	22c	5,531$1,229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,229.16	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	14c	5,446$766 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$766.24	405	19.8%80 W · 325 L	-18.3wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	10c	5,000$510 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$510	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	2c	4,464$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.86	552	5.6%31 W · 521 L	+15.6wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+42.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	4c	4,000$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$141.44	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed No	61c	3,679$2,229 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,449.58	169	41.4%70 W · 99 L	+6.2wins	+0.04per pick	38cpaid	-7.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	10c	3,636$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$349.75	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	16c	3,481$574 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$574.36	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No	68c	3,190$2,153 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,036.38	105	56.2%59 W · 46 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x114a…f1d1backed Yes	21c	3,025$621 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$620.51	38	13.2%5 W · 33 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes	23c	3,020$705 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$704.87	312	17.9%56 W · 256 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7741…23e6backed Yes	27c	2,895$792 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$791.52	69	36.2%25 W · 44 L	+4.1wins	+0.06per pick	30cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	5c	2,837$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.59	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	10c	2,729$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.92	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	30c	2,691$813 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$813.15	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes	19c	2,691$517 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$517.46	140	37.1%52 W · 88 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	10c	2,682$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.66	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	30c	2,668$808 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$808.34	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x913f…c676backed Yes	46c	2,610$1,198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,198.27	100	43%43 W · 57 L	-7.6wins	-0.08per pick	51cpaid	-31.8%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xc8d3…8c21backed Yes	16c	2,417$384 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$384.25	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	24c	2,374$562 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$561.59	630	21.7%137 W · 493 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	51c	2,304$1,183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,182.51	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked No	79c	2,204$1,739 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$464.52	324	15.7%51 W · 273 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca20…ae4ebacked Yes	1c	2,101$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.54	44	31.8%14 W · 30 L	+3.6wins	+0.08per pick	24cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	26c	2,096$541 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$540.61	994	10.6%105 W · 889 L	-30.0wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2d46…d383backed Yes	15c	2,036$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.11per pick	29cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	5c	2,000$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked No	67c	1,925$1,281 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$643.67	158	44.9%71 W · 87 L	+12.4wins	+0.08per pick	37cpaid	-6.9%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	70c	1,922$1,345 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$576.4	542	74.9%406 W · 136 L	+34.0wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed Yes	4c	1,838$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.77	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	10c	1,810$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.57	574	20.9%120 W · 454 L	+9.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	24c	1,778$435 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$435.25	826	14.9%123 W · 703 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes	18c	1,696$308 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$307.7	274	17.5%48 W · 226 L	+11.0wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	20c	1,650$323 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$322.79	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	13c	1,517$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.13	879	17.2%151 W · 728 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No	42c	1,499$636 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$863.43	101	51.5%52 W · 49 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes	9c	1,490$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.68	107	10.3%11 W · 96 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9372…b267backed Yes	3c	1,450$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.51	71	8.5%6 W · 65 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes	10c	1,400$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.38	197	31%61 W · 136 L	+13.8wins	+0.07per pick	24cpaid	+22%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes	28c	1,339$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$379.91	437	19.7%86 W · 351 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed Yes	3c	1,307$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.2	395	18.7%74 W · 321 L	-57.0wins	-0.14per pick	33cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0xd7f7…9ed6backed Yes	12c	1,306$155 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$155.12	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	17c	1,300$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$219.03	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No	79c	1,292$1,024 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$268.18	563	29.8%168 W · 395 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	34c	1,269$434 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$434.22	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	7c	1,251$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.42	1,040	13.7%142 W · 898 L	+38.1wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	13c	1,250$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$163.72	876	18.4%161 W · 715 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes	25c	1,228$313 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$313	232	22.4%52 W · 180 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	5c	1,203$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.09	797	11.3%90 W · 707 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	15c	1,201$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.33	882	10.3%91 W · 791 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed No	77c	1,185$912 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$272.91	119	26.9%32 W · 87 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7b1a…639dbacked Yes	18c	1,124$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.2	40	25%10 W · 30 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe676…5c84backed Yes	2c	1,114$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.43	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+0.4wins	+0.05per pick	33cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xed41…38afbacked Yes	12c	1,108$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.16	128	25.8%33 W · 95 L	+7.1wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes	22c	1,082$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.62	292	27.7%81 W · 211 L	+7.3wins	+0.03per pick	25cpaid	-12%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd376…231dbacked Yes	36c	1,071$389 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$388.87	33	21.2%7 W · 26 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…052abacked Yes	12c	1,061$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$127	107	30.8%33 W · 74 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes	20c	1,025$204 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$204	60	26.7%16 W · 44 L	-3.5wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes	19c	1,011$189 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$188.98	119	32.8%39 W · 80 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	5c	1,000$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x580f…e755backed Yes	3c	990$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.7	55	18.2%10 W · 45 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x86c8…a09dbacked Yes	20c	971.35$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.34	61	23%14 W · 47 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+34.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbf9…b9ccbacked Yes	13c	965.99$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.02	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	+3.0wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+102.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe559…1300backed Yes	22c	957.35$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	92	26.1%24 W · 68 L	-5.1wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No	75c	954.52$714 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$240.15	208	57.2%119 W · 89 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x019f…1152backed Yes	20c	945.89$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190.38	41	31.7%13 W · 28 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes	12c	936.78$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.76	211	22.3%47 W · 164 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No	79c	935.71$739 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$196.5	73	71.2%52 W · 21 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	73cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6ca2…6e06backed Yes	19c	907.93$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.72	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.03per pick	36cpaid	+84.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1aed…0b9dbacked Yes	41c	893.74$365 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$365.12	83	32.5%27 W · 56 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-15%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes	38c	865.1$332 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332.2	50	24%12 W · 38 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0b05…8983backed No	70c	848.01$590 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$258.21	124	21.8%27 W · 97 L	+11.8wins	+0.10per pick	12cpaid	+49.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x5f4f…c2f1backed No	65c	844.09$550 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$293.93	147	51%75 W · 72 L	+18.0wins	+0.12per pick	39cpaid	+29.4%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0x0186…40edbacked No	61c	823.89$502 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$322.09	97	33%32 W · 65 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-10.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd5be…6b28backed Yes	32c	823.48$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.66	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	8c	791.94$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.77	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7d0…1f8abacked No	78c	785.3$613 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$172.68	217	32.3%70 W · 147 L	-1.8wins	-0.01per pick	33cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	10c	722.84$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.19	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	34c	710.5$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$242.98	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe50e…45c5backed Yes	24c	700$171 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.01	69	39.1%27 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce2e…4257backed Yes	43c	700$303 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$302.96	18	72.2%13 W · 5 L	+3.1wins	+0.17per pick	55cpaid	+41.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	33c	693.12$231 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$230.8	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	12c	683.99$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.68	188	14.4%27 W · 161 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+21%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x391f…cf8dbacked Yes	16c	667.29$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.01	49	12.2%6 W · 43 L	-5.3wins	-0.11per pick	23cpaid	-54.9%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	77c	633.98$486 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$148.39	246	72.8%179 W · 67 L	+15.5wins	+0.06per pick	66cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes	26c	607.05$159 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.03	159	29.6%47 W · 112 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes	15c	606.13$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	132	15.9%21 W · 111 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	3c	600$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.6	731	15.2%111 W · 620 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ede…719abacked Yes	20c	593.39$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	40	25%10 W · 30 L	+1.3wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	6c	576.76$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.31	288	12.8%37 W · 251 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes	30c	571.05$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$173.93	230	19.1%44 W · 186 L	+3.4wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	25c	570.41$143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.98	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes	18c	556.17$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.83	140	22.1%31 W · 109 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No	61c	544.57$333 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$211.71	115	58.3%67 W · 48 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event