Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5fb3ff3fbe2e82aeb91228cccc1f42c9f4b9edae6ca5a7827e9ea0a494c333f5

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 25, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $101,799
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $68,842

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,799 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 64 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	8c	6,787$553 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$553.18	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	1c	6,219$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.46	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	10c	6,148$587 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$587.33	192	15.6%30 W · 162 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	2c	2,900$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	14c	1,784$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.18	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	5c	1,696$84 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.17	316	24.7%78 W · 238 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed Yes	11c	1,524$164 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.01	114	30.7%35 W · 79 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9372…b267backed Yes	14c	1,450$203 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$203.01	71	8.5%6 W · 65 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	3c	1,093$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.56	245	24.9%61 W · 184 L	-13.8wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-45%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	17c	1,078$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.32	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x92f7…47dcbacked Yes	7c	999$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.93	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-25%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	9c	708.71$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.31	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes	20c	605.4$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.51	149	13.4%20 W · 129 L	-9.6wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	16c	599.99$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81d4…3c9fbacked Yes	18c	585.56$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.8	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-3.4wins	-0.16per pick	31cpaid	-44%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	8c	581.01$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.02	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb5a…1537backed Yes	2c	524.86$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.05	159	18.9%30 W · 129 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	16c	463.53$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.11	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	11c	438.99$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.7	126	14.3%18 W · 108 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1f4…2a00backed Yes	19c	415.31$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x289a…f184backed Yes	19c	396.08$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.36	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	12c	386.42$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf22e…18f2backed Yes	12c	369.42$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.7	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x68ff…ec42backed Yes	9c	366.24$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.54	90	18.9%17 W · 73 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	16c	364.19$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.37	378	30.7%116 W · 262 L	-17.9wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xba75…837fbacked Yes	15c	350$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54	27	22.2%6 W · 21 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x58a5…ec93backed No	80c	344.7$274 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$70.24	32	84.4%27 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	80cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc7fb…8eb0backed Yes	18c	329.98$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.4	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-3.6wins	-0.11per pick	27cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x29e1…29f8backed Yes	17c	325.47$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.62	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-2.5wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes	13c	312$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.56	38	28.9%11 W · 27 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes	6c	305.94$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.05	215	21.9%47 W · 168 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59b4…8c04backed Yes	17c	301.76$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.3	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb831…892bbacked Yes	16c	300.01$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	179	17.9%32 W · 147 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-40%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67bf…b296backed Yes	17c	292.06$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.8	360	18.9%68 W · 292 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	8c	281.42$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.92	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x339d…06dabacked Yes	7c	269.73$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.62	88	21.6%19 W · 69 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1239…f34cbacked Yes	19c	262.14$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-3.7wins	-0.14per pick	25cpaid	-64%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x3bd1…d2f6backed Yes	16c	250$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	22cpaid	+14.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	80c	248.47$199 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$49.69	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	13c	222.57$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.34	193	14%27 W · 166 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x580f…e755backed Yes	14c	220$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.8	55	18.2%10 W · 45 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x79d6…d2e2backed Yes	6c	185$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.82	20	10%2 W · 18 L	-1.8wins	-0.09per pick	19cpaid	-62.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e07…0439backed Yes	16c	185$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.3	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x14a3…076ebacked Yes	11c	181.25$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0862…9a02backed Yes	16c	174.99$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.5	111	24.3%27 W · 84 L	-1.4wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-21.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf512…0985backed Yes	13c	151$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.2	121	17.4%21 W · 100 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d6c…e3f5backed Yes	17c	137.3$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.47	36	58.3%21 W · 15 L	+2.4wins	+0.07per pick	52cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x100f…d893backed Yes	19c	134.67$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4965…5bc0backed Yes	18c	130$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.1	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.1wins	-0.12per pick	12cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6798…76a2backed Yes	17c	110.47$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.78	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf2ca…58adbacked Yes	12c	108.33$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x73b5…e8a3backed Yes	15c	106.67$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	92	18.5%17 W · 75 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9f5e…343cbacked Yes	19c	105.26$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	18cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x028d…feccbacked Yes	17c	103.74$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	66	22.7%15 W · 51 L	-4.4wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe53d…146cbacked Yes	13c	103.19$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.41	117	23.1%27 W · 90 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4f69…f07ebacked Yes	12c	100$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	52	9.6%5 W · 47 L	-3.6wins	-0.07per pick	17cpaid	-56%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xc94a…3975backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	62	40.3%25 W · 37 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	15c	100$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf67b…1ac0backed Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	33	21.2%7 W · 26 L	-2.3wins	-0.07per pick	28cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x544e…86dcbacked Yes	17c	99.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	50	12%6 W · 44 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4e1a…947cbacked Yes	17c	99.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes	15c	78.05$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.63	99	47.5%47 W · 52 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdf0e…c02bbacked No	79c	57$45 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$11.97	23	52.2%12 W · 11 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	51cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No	79c	48.9$39 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10.27	74	58.1%43 W · 31 L	+3.9wins	+0.05per pick	53cpaid	+5.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event