Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a1630e34cc833ef5e2f1f98e480350ddcd153dda7ab8faf39622616b2e40aaa

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 28, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $226,688
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $120,890

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $226,688 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 62 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	2c	10,952$169 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.95	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	11c	6,667$766 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$766.4	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	6,228$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$73.83	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	1c	6,047$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.63	200	9%18 W · 182 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+173%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	1c	6,000$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes	1c	5,688$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60.05	253	11.5%29 W · 224 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	-17.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4067…6ffabacked Yes	3c	5,308$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$159.71	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	2c	4,800$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.55	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	0c	4,780$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.1	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	1c	4,712$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.69	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	7c	3,695$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$275.5	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes	1c	3,500$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	151	5.3%8 W · 143 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	+227.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	1c	3,345$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.13	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd9d0…542cbacked Yes	0c	3,167$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.28	67	4.5%3 W · 64 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-77.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdbf9…b9ccbacked Yes	0c	3,163$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.54	55	14.5%8 W · 47 L	+3.0wins	+0.06per pick	9cpaid	+102.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	5c	3,150$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.77	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	1c	2,750$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.14	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	2,567$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.03	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes	5c	2,361$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.97	128	10.9%14 W · 114 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	2,218$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.66	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	9c	2,187$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.23	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	3c	2,113$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	1c	2,030$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.71	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	1c	2,010$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.56	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	3c	1,894$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.07	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	1,775$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.49	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5cc1…480abacked Yes	8c	1,602$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.66	35	2.9%1 W · 34 L	-1.0wins	-0.03per pick	6cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86c8…a09dbacked Yes	7c	1,470$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.23	61	23%14 W · 47 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+34.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	1,332$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.25	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9611…e89ebacked Yes	4c	1,277$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.96	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	-1.3wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-27.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x832d…6ec5backed Yes	3c	1,250$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.23	117	7.7%9 W · 108 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	3c	1,150$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.9	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	14c	899.65$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.5	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x85f0…62ebbacked Yes	6c	865.12$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.54	101	14.9%15 W · 86 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+47.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	5c	788.52$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.67	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	3c	728.81$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.02	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	3c	587.42$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.47	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	5c	566.27$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.45	126	14.3%18 W · 108 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	2c	552.65$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.17	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes	11c	523.51$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.21	424	24.5%104 W · 320 L	-13.9wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	2c	517.95$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.03	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xaabb…daf3backed Yes	12c	500$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.5	71	33.8%24 W · 47 L	+7.9wins	+0.11per pick	23cpaid	+66.9%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0xcc13…c991backed Yes	6c	465.89$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.26	161	24.2%39 W · 122 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb3c…4a10backed Yes	9c	460.16$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.66	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	5c	457.32$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.52	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68ff…ec42backed Yes	6c	436.17$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.71	90	18.9%17 W · 73 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes	6c	430.36$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.76	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	+2.9wins	+0.07per pick	5cpaid	+102.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	5c	419.29$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.37	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	4c	417.56$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.84	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	6c	350.01$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.86	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xee50…11e6backed Yes	4c	340.51$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	64	20.3%13 W · 51 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe50e…45c5backed Yes	4c	300$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	69	39.1%27 W · 42 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	40cpaid	-16.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6db…cdd2backed Yes	4c	300$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.9	46	4.3%2 W · 44 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-93.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes	9c	282.24$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.41	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x927f…e7e7backed Yes	4c	264.39$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.37	78	25.6%20 W · 58 L	+4.7wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+39.4%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xa873…6b47backed Yes	5c	262.34$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	12c	237.05$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.38	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb603…58febacked Yes	8c	216.22$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.73	36	27.8%10 W · 26 L	+2.6wins	+0.07per pick	21cpaid	+5.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes	10c	200$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.9	412	20.6%85 W · 327 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	10c	156.86$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xca9c…dd9dbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	87	26.4%23 W · 64 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf5c9…83b5backed Yes	11c	100$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	48	20.8%10 W · 38 L	-1.6wins	-0.03per pick	24cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event