Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xbc1c829df80f49cf6a7036f44c96d15615e1d80f1ca7e49f155a88992e7fcd33

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 28, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $395,386
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $213,593

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $395,386 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 241 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	11c	28,224$3,154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,154.39	186	16.1%30 W · 156 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	24,146$227 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.96	1,060	8.4%89 W · 971 L	+29.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	0c	18,400$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	552	5.6%31 W · 521 L	+15.6wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+42.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes	1c	13,009$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.06	161	22.4%36 W · 125 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd376…231dbacked Yes	16c	9,968$1,603 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,603.4	33	21.2%7 W · 26 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes	5c	8,670$406 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$405.54	312	17.9%56 W · 256 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4067…6ffabacked Yes	18c	7,175$1,274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,274.29	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b05…8983backed Yes	2c	6,821$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.54	124	21.8%27 W · 97 L	+11.8wins	+0.10per pick	12cpaid	+49.6%equal weight	59+0.08 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	6c	6,742$415 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$415.07	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	20c	6,520$1,315 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,315.15	532	22.7%121 W · 411 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	9c	5,704$538 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$537.53	994	10.6%105 W · 889 L	-30.0wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3eed…2050backed Yes	20c	5,090$1,017 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,017.4	106	29.2%31 W · 75 L	-5.1wins	-0.05per pick	34cpaid	-29.4%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes	0c	5,000$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	128	10.9%14 W · 114 L	-2.4wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-61.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	2c	4,872$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.45	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9372…b267backed Yes	0c	4,450$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.5	71	8.5%6 W · 65 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	7c	4,180$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.11	876	18.4%161 W · 715 L	+9.5wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x206b…7d6abacked Yes	0c	4,103$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	524	9.9%52 W · 472 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+64%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	1c	4,000$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	10c	3,964$392 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$391.86	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	5c	3,731$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.7	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	12c	3,605$415 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$414.9	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	6c	3,244$187 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$187.04	879	17.2%151 W · 728 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2379…178ebacked Yes	3c	3,167$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.34	58	27.6%16 W · 42 L	+4.6wins	+0.08per pick	20cpaid	+20.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x9263…1999backed Yes	0c	3,017$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.29	98	1%1 W · 97 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-24.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe243…af59backed Yes	1c	3,000$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	364	11%40 W · 324 L	+10.0wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+6.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4d86…1cb2backed Yes	1c	2,987$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.7	22	4.5%1 W · 21 L	+0.8wins	+0.04per pick	1cpaid	+354.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfdaa…fec8backed Yes	3c	2,841$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.59	55	29.1%16 W · 39 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	25cpaid	-42.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1aed…5925backed Yes	17c	2,602$441 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$441.48	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	3c	2,352$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.26	797	11.3%90 W · 707 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes	6c	2,267$139 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.77	274	17.5%48 W · 226 L	+11.0wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x12f7…4ae3backed Yes	3c	2,231$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.78	44	45.5%20 W · 24 L	+6.1wins	+0.14per pick	32cpaid	+152.8%equal weight	60+0.09 edge/pick
0xc78b…2ca5backed Yes	29c	2,103$600 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$600	101	25.7%26 W · 75 L	-3.1wins	-0.03per pick	29cpaid	+0.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes	3c	1,933$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.68	2,160	3.9%85 W · 2,075 L	+5.9wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-35.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfa5a…edf2backed Yes	11c	1,894$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202	60	26.7%16 W · 44 L	-3.5wins	-0.06per pick	33cpaid	-19.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes	6c	1,856$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.15	223	25.1%56 W · 167 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	24cpaid	-45.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	7c	1,840$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.47	405	19.8%80 W · 325 L	-18.3wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	19c	1,727$334 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$333.57	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	13c	1,725$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.3	413	10.7%44 W · 369 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+12.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd5a…2ff7backed Yes	3c	1,548$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.64	147	21.8%32 W · 115 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5099…9554backed Yes	2c	1,513$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.07	14	7.1%1 W · 13 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-40.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb5f…1ad5backed Yes	16c	1,479$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$232	48	18.8%9 W · 39 L	-4.2wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-49.9%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	7c	1,460$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$104.7	826	14.9%123 W · 703 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	11c	1,457$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$161.04	119	26.9%32 W · 87 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ab…2bcfbacked No	75c	1,447$1,087 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$360.25	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes	14c	1,445$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	140	37.1%52 W · 88 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes	20c	1,434$293 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$292.87	437	19.7%86 W · 351 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	7c	1,395$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.51	574	20.9%120 W · 454 L	+9.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes	5c	1,329$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.25	121	14%17 W · 104 L	+4.9wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-7.6%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7111…7c21backed Yes	26c	1,265$324 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$324.14	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	11c	1,256$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.11	882	10.3%91 W · 791 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	7c	1,256$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.8	1,040	13.7%142 W · 898 L	+38.1wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes	9c	1,217$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105.65	563	29.8%168 W · 395 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-39.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8288…5519backed Yes	1c	1,200$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.6	159	29.6%47 W · 112 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-11.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	20c	1,200$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.41	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes	15c	1,130$172 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$171.87	424	24.5%104 W · 320 L	-13.9wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes	32c	1,110$350 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$350	132	15.9%21 W · 111 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	1,108$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.48	781	8.7%68 W · 713 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	2c	1,100$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.2	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x623f…53bcbacked Yes	2c	1,080$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.24	188	8%15 W · 173 L	+5.7wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+86%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	6c	1,050$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.2	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No	80c	1,044$832 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$212.3	208	57.2%119 W · 89 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2ef2…7f72backed Yes	19c	1,037$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$193.89	50	24%12 W · 38 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	24cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes	4c	1,021$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.97	216	6%13 W · 203 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd1f…cc26backed Yes	22c	1,018$219 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$218.83	499	19%95 W · 404 L	-1.7wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-11.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90f1…72c6backed Yes	1c	1,008$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.11	624	12.3%77 W · 547 L	+16.2wins	+0.03per pick	10cpaid	+8.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	20c	999.99$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.74	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	7c	962.01$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.98	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe559…1300backed Yes	22c	918.08$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	92	26.1%24 W · 68 L	-5.1wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	8c	889.44$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.29	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	3c	884.69$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.1	288	12.8%37 W · 251 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcc13…c991backed Yes	14c	878.76$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.1	159	24.5%39 W · 120 L	+2.2wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	19c	866.44$160 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.44	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes	22c	859.08$186 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.88	267	22.8%61 W · 206 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…052abacked Yes	4c	846.93$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	107	30.8%33 W · 74 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	76c	831.27$632 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$199.38	542	74.9%406 W · 136 L	+34.0wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	9c	799.99$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$70.93	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe23d…3c72backed Yes	3c	789.19$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.94	202	26.7%54 W · 148 L	+8.0wins	+0.04per pick	23cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	2c	788$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.28	558	8.2%46 W · 512 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No	80c	776.8$618 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$159.22	73	71.2%52 W · 21 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	73cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x86d5…d80abacked Yes	17c	685.81$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.46	8	37.5%3 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.18per pick	19cpaid	+23.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	20c	684.56$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.81	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	2c	678.6$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.66	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	20c	623.72$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.24	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x26dc…e03abacked Yes	18c	618.28$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113	202	22.8%46 W · 156 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	29c	610.84$176 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$175.65	731	15.2%111 W · 620 L	+11.9wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x86c8…a09dbacked Yes	13c	605.1$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81	61	23%14 W · 47 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+34.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No	75c	599.98$447 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$152.6	186	76.9%143 W · 43 L	+11.9wins	+0.06per pick	70cpaid	+6.9%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	11c	579.98$67 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.54	578	11.4%66 W · 512 L	+19.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes	18c	569$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	171	26.9%46 W · 125 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	16c	562.44$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.88	188	14.4%27 W · 161 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+21%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	18c	551.25$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x514b…6931backed Yes	19c	539.62$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.05	104	41.3%43 W · 61 L	+9.5wins	+0.09per pick	32cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0xc99e…3853backed Yes	26c	538.01$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.82	197	22.8%45 W · 152 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed Yes	17c	519.84$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.51	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes	2c	500$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.9	207	23.7%49 W · 158 L	-2.2wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	-8.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes	17c	498.61$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.76	846	16.4%139 W · 707 L	+24.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-1.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	12c	471.4$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.15	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa67b…af43backed Yes	26c	467.26$120 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$120	159	22.6%36 W · 123 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	13c	466.24$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.58	126	14.3%18 W · 108 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	24c	454.16$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.2	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event