Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x724e198448f612097b59a8dd46ebf8b56adbb718864f0c5a195070bb7747029d

Rebuilt 2 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Yesof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 28, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $321,589
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $298,099

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $321,589 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 348 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No	0c	43,372$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.51	625	39.5%247 W · 378 L	+48.1wins	+0.08per pick	32cpaid	+19.5%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	30c	15,164$4,515 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$10,649.44	192	15.6%30 W · 162 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	28c	11,269$3,143 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$3,142.65	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa834…1c25backed No	1c	8,986$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.54	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.08per pick	25cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes	22c	7,917$1,779 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$6,138.21	541	22.7%123 W · 418 L	+16.6wins	+0.03per pick	20cpaid	+3.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4067…6ffabacked Yes	18c	6,988$1,288 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$5,699.2	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd376…231dbacked Yes	28c	5,208$1,439 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,769.29	33	21.2%7 W · 26 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-40.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc5ab…2bcfbacked Yes	25c	5,110$1,260 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,849.81	53	45.3%24 W · 29 L	+1.7wins	+0.03per pick	42cpaid	-3.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x832d…6ec5backed No	0c	4,987$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.55	117	7.7%9 W · 108 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes	51c	4,240$2,172 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,067.69	140	37.1%52 W · 88 L	+5.2wins	+0.04per pick	33cpaid	-20.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	2c	4,000$63 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$3,936.35	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No	42c	3,909$1,629 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,628.91	105	56.2%59 W · 46 L	+1.7wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	+0.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	37c	3,605$1,349 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,256.44	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x114a…f1d1backed Yes	24c	3,043$729 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,313.72	40	12.5%5 W · 35 L	-2.4wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	5c	3,000$150 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$2,849.99	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x90af…a42cbacked No	52c	2,826$1,479 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,478.62	9	77.8%7 W · 2 L	+0.8wins	+0.09per pick	69cpaid	+10.6%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes	40c	2,793$1,124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,669.44	312	17.9%56 W · 256 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No	15c	2,380$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$354.94	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	21c	2,200$453 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,746.75	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1cdd…e595backed No	0c	2,156$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.21	395	18.7%74 W · 321 L	-57.0wins	-0.14per pick	33cpaid	-60.5%equal weight	35-0.14 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	26c	1,868$493 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,374.89	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4265…851fbacked Yes	56c	1,679$943 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$735.99	37	29.7%11 W · 26 L	-0.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-13.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	23c	1,670$388 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,282.16	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed No	60c	1,622$974 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$974.15	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	2c	1,507$25 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,482	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x93fd…7e2fbacked Yes	29c	1,500$430 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,070.16	572	22%126 W · 446 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-42%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d3f…a942backed No	74c	1,484$1,100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,100	115	56.5%65 W · 50 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	56cpaid	-2.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	24c	1,483$354 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,128.88	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9372…b267backed Yes	2c	1,450$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,421.2	71	8.5%6 W · 65 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No	62c	1,437$894 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$893.97	101	51.5%52 W · 49 L	+2.9wins	+0.03per pick	49cpaid	-0.4%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes	31c	1,350$417 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$932.87	397	23.2%92 W · 305 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-31.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	43c	1,317$563 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$754.39	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	75c	1,317$982 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$981.92	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7111…7c21backed Yes	62c	1,236$768 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$467.79	18	44.4%8 W · 10 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	47cpaid	-33.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes	59c	1,204$712 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$491.62	768	21.7%167 W · 601 L	-2.0wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-49.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No	80c	1,196$951 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$951.15	73	71.2%52 W · 21 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	73cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	16c	1,184$192 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$992.35	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xed32…df4abacked Yes	38c	1,180$450 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$729.56	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No	52c	1,156$598 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$598	208	57.2%119 W · 89 L	+4.4wins	+0.02per pick	55cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes	28c	1,132$316 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$815.92	274	17.5%48 W · 226 L	+11.0wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	31c	1,115$342 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$772.3	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes	49c	1,086$533 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$552.54	173	35.3%61 W · 112 L	+3.0wins	+0.02per pick	34cpaid	+1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes	33c	1,082$352 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$730.49	424	24.5%104 W · 320 L	-13.9wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1aed…5925backed Yes	19c	1,025$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$825.73	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes	44c	1,017$446 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$571.43	162	22.2%36 W · 126 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No	63c	999.98$629 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$628.98	188	77.1%145 W · 43 L	+12.3wins	+0.07per pick	71cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	65c	999.78$648 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$351.45	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b61…a7fabacked Yes	52c	995.41$515 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$480.51	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	-0.8wins	-0.07per pick	34cpaid	-51.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7741…23e6backed Yes	30c	968.12$294 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$674.6	69	36.2%25 W · 44 L	+4.1wins	+0.06per pick	30cpaid	+3.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes	32c	951.02$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$651.02	132	15.9%21 W · 111 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	+15.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0472…fc04backed Yes	29c	950.71$276 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$674.6	38	23.7%9 W · 29 L	-0.8wins	-0.02per pick	26cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7374…38ffbacked No	73c	912.06$663 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$662.62	113	59.3%67 W · 46 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	60cpaid	-6.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18b2…24efbacked Yes	17c	903.69$151 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$752.34	156	19.2%30 W · 126 L	-2.6wins	-0.02per pick	21cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x13fa…052abacked Yes	7c	886.68$60 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$826.68	107	30.8%33 W · 74 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes	59c	844.46$501 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$343.46	232	22.4%52 W · 180 L	+2.3wins	+0.01per pick	21cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	39c	827.32$320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$507.44	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b1a…639dbacked Yes	25c	799.99$200 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$599.99	40	25%10 W · 30 L	+0.8wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes	36c	798.37$289 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$509.84	267	22.8%61 W · 206 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc13…c991backed Yes	25c	789.31$194 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$595.13	161	24.2%39 W · 122 L	+1.9wins	+0.01per pick	23cpaid	-14.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67bf…b296backed Yes	7c	773.21$57 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$716.21	360	18.9%68 W · 292 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed No	76c	758.37$579 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$579.32	114	30.7%35 W · 79 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2d46…d383backed Yes	48c	748.73$360 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$388.73	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.11per pick	29cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	29c	714.41$207 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$507.64	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes	2c	713$16 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$696.6	107	10.3%11 W · 96 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f4f…c2f1backed Yes	55c	701.43$382 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$318.93	147	51%75 W · 72 L	+18.0wins	+0.12per pick	39cpaid	+29.4%equal weight	62+0.10 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes	33c	700.77$234 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$466.48	662	22.2%147 W · 515 L	-34.7wins	-0.05per pick	27cpaid	-58.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	36c	700$251 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$448.62	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfee1…746fbacked Yes	24c	683.3$162 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$521.43	140	22.1%31 W · 109 L	+5.3wins	+0.04per pick	18cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	46c	673.95$309 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$365.04	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	11c	664.93$75 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$589.46	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe559…1300backed Yes	32c	652.5$212 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$440.5	92	26.1%24 W · 68 L	-5.1wins	-0.06per pick	32cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5be…6b28backed Yes	39c	641.23$253 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$388.36	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed No	70c	632.99$445 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$444.51	344	25.6%88 W · 256 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	26cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed Yes	51c	610.61$312 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$298.2	151	28.5%43 W · 108 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	28cpaid	+21.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd317…025abacked Yes	60c	606$364 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$242.34	220	23.6%52 W · 168 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	23cpaid	-22.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes	60c	583.82$348 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$235.8	437	19.7%86 W · 351 L	-10.8wins	-0.02per pick	22cpaid	-44.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xed41…38afbacked Yes	22c	582.34$130 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$451.9	128	25.8%33 W · 95 L	+7.1wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x30d7…59c1backed Yes	22c	568.14$124 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$444.59	89	22.5%20 W · 69 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-12.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	29c	565.71$162 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$403.36	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x510f…a43cbacked Yes	38c	565.64$213 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$352.69	276	47.8%132 W · 144 L	+10.1wins	+0.04per pick	44cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c48…6b72backed Yes	18c	560.7$100 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$460.7	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	-0.4wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2bc5…8a35backed Yes	5c	560.51$29 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$531.51	29	6.9%2 W · 27 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	7cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x514b…6931backed Yes	54c	559.31$300 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$259.6	104	41.3%43 W · 61 L	+9.5wins	+0.09per pick	32cpaid	+14.3%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	9c	549.68$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$502.77	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50f3…c137backed Yes	24c	544.32$131 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$413.14	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	26cpaid	+40.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x696e…1c38backed No	77c	530.25$407 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$406.55	92	33.7%31 W · 61 L	-4.7wins	-0.05per pick	39cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	28c	528.12$149 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$379.2	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No	70c	527.8$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$367.91	189	49.2%93 W · 96 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	50cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No	66c	524.04$345 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$345.33	115	58.3%67 W · 48 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	57cpaid	-1.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ee9…7d37backed Yes	34c	503.63$170 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$333.63	109	24.8%27 W · 82 L	+2.0wins	+0.02per pick	23cpaid	+38.7%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes	2c	500$12 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$488.5	111	6.3%7 W · 104 L	+2.6wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+53.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked No	62c	489.02$305 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$305.38	126	14.3%18 W · 108 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac43…3a33backed Yes	52c	486.11$251 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$234.81	65	44.6%29 W · 36 L	+1.5wins	+0.02per pick	42cpaid	+15%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	19c	473.67$91 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$382.8	193	14%27 W · 166 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	37c	466.08$172 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$294.5	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	10c	465.24$47 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$418.24	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes	59c	459.69$271 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$188.93	412	30.8%127 W · 285 L	+7.9wins	+0.02per pick	29cpaid	+0.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	31c	454.67$139 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$315.44	245	24.9%61 W · 184 L	-13.8wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-45%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x881a…ccccbacked Yes	34c	450$155 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$295	132	35.6%47 W · 85 L	+10.5wins	+0.08per pick	28cpaid	+13.1%equal weight	57+0.07 edge/pick
0xd32c…a4c2backed No	60c	449$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270.36	82	53.7%44 W · 38 L	+0.9wins	+0.01per pick	53cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event