Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xced4460f12ac0e3422dcfd5425653fea0c8169507b6e619ff543f557852c98e7

Rebuilt 12 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 24, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $101,400
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $76,753

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $101,400 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 56 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	7c	9,251$606 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$606.39	192	15.6%30 W · 162 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	1c	5,326$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.12	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	12c	4,490$546 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$545.57	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	1c	2,268$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.34	200	9%18 W · 182 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+173%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	10c	1,817$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.22	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	16c	1,564$243 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.21	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9372…b267backed Yes	7c	1,450$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$101.5	71	8.5%6 W · 65 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes	5c	1,445$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.55	174	19%33 W · 141 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	11c	1,100$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.5	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe5c5…4c75backed Yes	18c	1,091$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-0.8wins	-0.10per pick	23cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x92f7…47dcbacked Yes	9c	1,013$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.05	23	39.1%9 W · 14 L	-1.0wins	-0.04per pick	43cpaid	-25%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	10c	983.42$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.84	316	24.7%78 W · 238 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	14c	956$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.46	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	9c	682.75$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.57	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	14c	600.5$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.78	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x14a3…076ebacked Yes	11c	541.81$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58	12	16.7%2 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-14.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	10c	515.91$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.98	126	14.3%18 W · 108 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x81d4…3c9fbacked Yes	15c	506.73$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.5	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-3.4wins	-0.16per pick	31cpaid	-44%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	5c	500$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.64	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x289a…f184backed Yes	17c	493.71$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.14	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	8c	459.98$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.33	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb65…8a30backed Yes	5c	400$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-50.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x539e…3ccebacked Yes	3c	399.61$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.16	125	14.4%18 W · 107 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc1f4…2a00backed Yes	13c	399.07$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb5a…1537backed Yes	4c	380.18$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.37	159	18.9%30 W · 129 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf22e…18f2backed Yes	5c	346.7$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.6	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf61f…1cf3backed Yes	5c	325.08$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.04	129	19.4%25 W · 104 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc7fb…8eb0backed Yes	15c	317.44$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.26	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-3.6wins	-0.11per pick	27cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa4dd…d2c0backed Yes	16c	312.5$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	11	27.3%3 W · 8 L	+1.0wins	+0.09per pick	18cpaid	+80.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x68ff…ec42backed Yes	7c	302.27$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	90	18.9%17 W · 73 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfe3f…abe7backed Yes	4c	302.18$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+1.0wins	+0.14per pick	14cpaid	+25.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x04f7…00f0backed Yes	5c	300$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x100f…d893backed Yes	14c	284.46$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	10c	280.52$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.19	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x193a…35c0backed Yes	5c	250$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.5	95	5.3%5 W · 90 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	-56.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0f28…124cbacked Yes	16c	244$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.98	1	0%0 W · 1 L	-0.2wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x339d…06dabacked Yes	7c	238.66$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.56	88	21.6%19 W · 69 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf52b…5bf3backed Yes	13c	229.44$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.83	76	7.9%6 W · 70 L	-3.5wins	-0.05per pick	12cpaid	-30.8%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes	9c	223.94$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.08	215	21.9%47 W · 168 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5e0f…c18cbacked Yes	7c	208.33$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	101	5%5 W · 96 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-67.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes	13c	200$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.72	149	13.4%20 W · 129 L	-9.6wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	16c	180$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.8	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	14c	166.05$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf512…0985backed Yes	10c	142$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.55	121	17.4%21 W · 100 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1239…f34cbacked Yes	14c	129.29$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.1	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-3.7wins	-0.14per pick	25cpaid	-64%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xd262…41e7backed Yes	16c	125$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	4	25%1 W · 3 L	+0.1wins	+0.03per pick	22cpaid	-25.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8e07…0439backed Yes	14c	123$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.32	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67bf…b296backed Yes	18c	114.7$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.65	360	18.9%68 W · 292 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x29e1…29f8backed Yes	14c	108.24$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.75	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-2.5wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x07f1…3b8ebacked Yes	18c	105.56$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	60	35%21 W · 39 L	-2.8wins	-0.05per pick	40cpaid	-19%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x028d…feccbacked Yes	17c	102.77$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	66	22.7%15 W · 51 L	-4.4wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	14c	102.13$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.48	193	14%27 W · 166 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe807…4d35backed Yes	18c	100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	-0.6wins	-0.04per pick	40cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6798…76a2backed Yes	16c	94.44$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	+0.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-5.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes	15c	70.15$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.6	99	47.5%47 W · 52 L	+1.4wins	+0.01per pick	46cpaid	-3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2923…77d5backed Yes	18c	55.6$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.01	57	17.5%10 W · 47 L	-2.5wins	-0.04per pick	22cpaid	-37.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event