Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xee550e55cc98977d4f1458fa7c2bba4b9da869d2ef11bf108b32663f8b6763d1

Rebuilt 10 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 25, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $175,669
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $109,416

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $175,669 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 90 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x524d…4495backed Yes	0c	35,538$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.54	162	22.2%36 W · 126 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+1.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4147…4aa9backed Yes	0c	12,020$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.02	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	14c	5,664$802 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$801.88	192	15.6%30 W · 162 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes	1c	5,500$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.5	151	5.3%8 W · 143 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	+227.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	11c	5,084$555 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$554.99	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	16c	4,670$751 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$751.06	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	10c	4,000$380 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$380.1	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4827…7d38backed Yes	19c	3,598$700 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$700	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-2.9wins	-0.24per pick	32cpaid	-72%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	3,300$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes	5c	2,968$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.17	174	19%33 W · 141 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed Yes	13c	2,341$306 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$306.31	114	30.7%35 W · 79 L	-3.2wins	-0.03per pick	34cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	12c	1,961$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.96	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9372…b267backed Yes	16c	1,450$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.99	71	8.5%6 W · 65 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	5c	1,300$65 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	6c	1,219$69 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.38	316	24.7%78 W · 238 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x186c…1d32backed Yes	8c	1,200$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	8c	1,137$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.42	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0xfb5f…1ad5backed Yes	19c	1,053$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	49	18.4%9 W · 40 L	-4.4wins	-0.09per pick	27cpaid	-50.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	11c	1,013$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.84	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc0d3…afadbacked Yes	3c	1,000$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.06per pick	6cpaid	+212.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d46…d383backed Yes	20c	915.48$180 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180	10	40%4 W · 6 L	+1.1wins	+0.11per pick	29cpaid	+10.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x332e…fd5dbacked Yes	15c	843.41$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.51	122	7.4%9 W · 113 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	+43.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58a5…ec93backed No	80c	836.2$669 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$167.49	32	84.4%27 W · 5 L	+1.5wins	+0.05per pick	80cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	7c	749.98$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.09	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfcbe…b37cbacked Yes	12c	687$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.44	74	32.4%24 W · 50 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	12c	684$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.16	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	80c	649.1$519 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$129.82	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes	16c	638.01$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.96	41	17.1%7 W · 34 L	-3.9wins	-0.10per pick	27cpaid	-50.6%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x548a…e37abacked Yes	7c	627.92$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	77	16.9%13 W · 64 L	-2.4wins	-0.03per pick	20cpaid	-32.8%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	2c	600$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes	6c	600$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36	107	10.3%11 W · 96 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x81d4…3c9fbacked Yes	19c	587.8$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-3.4wins	-0.16per pick	31cpaid	-44%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	2c	570$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.1	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x339d…06dabacked Yes	3c	561.18$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.63	88	21.6%19 W · 69 L	+2.2wins	+0.03per pick	19cpaid	-9.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb5a…1537backed Yes	3c	541.57$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.15	159	18.9%30 W · 129 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	10c	534.94$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.5	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7f7…9ed6backed Yes	8c	507.54$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41.7	35	20%7 W · 28 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	21cpaid	-51.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x68ff…ec42backed Yes	7c	481.1$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.79	90	18.9%17 W · 73 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	13c	479.65$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$64.38	126	14.3%18 W · 108 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	4c	459.1$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.8	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd33…f47ebacked Yes	5c	440.98$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	177	20.9%37 W · 140 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed No	80c	400$320 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$80	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2924…dcdebacked Yes	8c	398.08$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.68	212	22.2%47 W · 165 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	22cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc7fb…8eb0backed Yes	17c	369.99$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.74	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-3.6wins	-0.11per pick	27cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	14c	357.27$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.8	193	14%27 W · 166 L	+5.9wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+17.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa0d3…5b5ebacked Yes	15c	328$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.2	38	28.9%11 W · 27 L	+0.7wins	+0.02per pick	27cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	16c	317.85$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.5	289	12.8%37 W · 252 L	+5.7wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes	5c	312.44$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.28	215	21.9%47 W · 168 L	-2.7wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-19.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf512…0985backed Yes	12c	300.12$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.99	121	17.4%21 W · 100 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x544e…86dcbacked Yes	14c	300$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$41	50	12%6 W · 44 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf864…7fb5backed Yes	13c	300$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$38	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc94a…3975backed Yes	13c	300$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39	62	40.3%25 W · 37 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	17c	266.68$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.26	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29e1…29f8backed Yes	19c	261$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.37	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-2.5wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc1f4…2a00backed Yes	19c	256.67$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	47	8.5%4 W · 43 L	-2.4wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-35.6%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7172…b910backed Yes	16c	250$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	60	16.7%10 W · 50 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-16%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes	17c	249.97$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.49	303	17.2%52 W · 251 L	+8.6wins	+0.03per pick	14cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	7c	247.1$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.61	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x67bf…b296backed Yes	17c	233.66$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	360	18.9%68 W · 292 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf61f…1cf3backed Yes	5c	230.93$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.27	129	19.4%25 W · 104 L	+1.5wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb286…c016backed Yes	16c	220$35 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.2	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+66.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	8c	219.12$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.09	407	19.7%80 W · 327 L	-18.4wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4ff6…4e36backed Yes	15c	200$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xba75…837fbacked Yes	11c	200$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22	27	22.2%6 W · 21 L	+1.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+19.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x85f0…62ebbacked Yes	15c	199.99$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	101	14.9%15 W · 86 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+47.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes	19c	194.53$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37	149	13.4%20 W · 129 L	-9.6wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	44-0.06 edge/pick
0xf22e…18f2backed Yes	16c	181.02$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.44	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	16c	180$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.8	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No	79c	160.35$127 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$33.67	73	71.2%52 W · 21 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	73cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x289a…f184backed Yes	16c	156.25$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9484…a173backed Yes	14c	150$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	400	16.8%67 W · 333 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1239…f34cbacked Yes	21c	145.24$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-3.7wins	-0.14per pick	25cpaid	-64%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfe3f…abe7backed Yes	11c	127.27$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+1.0wins	+0.14per pick	14cpaid	+25.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6f67…102cbacked Yes	16c	125.78$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.12	378	30.7%116 W · 262 L	-17.9wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-22.6%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7581…2ca4backed Yes	20c	125$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-44.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x73b5…e8a3backed Yes	19c	107.79$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	92	18.5%17 W · 75 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ca…58adbacked Yes	16c	106.25$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	25cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e07…0439backed Yes	15c	106.01$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	27cpaid	-27.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe53d…146cbacked Yes	16c	103.19$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.51	117	23.1%27 W · 90 L	+1.7wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-10.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x028d…feccbacked Yes	16c	103.14$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	66	22.7%15 W · 51 L	-4.4wins	-0.07per pick	29cpaid	-27.9%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb411…8a7cbacked Yes	10c	100$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	26	11.5%3 W · 23 L	+0.7wins	+0.03per pick	9cpaid	-11.4%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x65ab…273dbacked Yes	20c	100$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	204	32.4%66 W · 138 L	-11.3wins	-0.06per pick	38cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf18c…18c1backed Yes	14c	100$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	49	51%25 W · 24 L	+1.6wins	+0.03per pick	48cpaid	+1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6933…0f16backed Yes	18c	100$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	475	10.5%50 W · 425 L	-6.3wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No	80c	100$80 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$20	188	77.1%145 W · 43 L	+12.3wins	+0.07per pick	71cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4e1a…947cbacked Yes	17c	99.99$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.6wins	-0.15per pick	15cpaid	-100%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7621…11aabacked Yes	17c	87.41$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.86	9	33.3%3 W · 6 L	-0.9wins	-0.10per pick	43cpaid	-52.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2b4…2d9bbacked Yes	16c	75$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	57	38.6%22 W · 35 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	35cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd71…0344backed Yes	18c	61.11$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11	5	20%1 W · 4 L	-0.7wins	-0.14per pick	34cpaid	-71.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x100f…d893backed Yes	18c	59.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.8	14	50%7 W · 7 L	+0.5wins	+0.04per pick	46cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event