Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe150dd12ae793666041b643190e5f38eabd6be67fb5a0ac8d1dfc67e618328e8

Rebuilt 1 day ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 28, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $218,753
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $108,888

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $218,753 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 45 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x02b4…7092backed Yes	0c	22,278$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.33	83	8.4%7 W · 76 L	-1.0wins	-0.01per pick	10cpaid	-69.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	3c	11,155$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$297.19	192	15.6%30 W · 162 L	-4.3wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-53.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	10,107$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.5	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes	0c	8,977$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.87	200	9%18 W · 182 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+173%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	0c	5,555$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.11	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	5,185$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.99	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4067…6ffabacked Yes	1c	5,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	44	18.2%8 W · 36 L	-0.9wins	-0.02per pick	20cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	1c	5,000$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	0c	4,834$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.33	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	4,739$86 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.14	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes	1c	4,500$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.5	151	5.3%8 W · 143 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	+227.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	4c	4,189$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.16	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	0c	3,750$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.25	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	3c	3,121$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes	3c	2,940$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.74	335	27.8%93 W · 242 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	27cpaid	+0.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	1c	2,803$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.88	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x832d…6ec5backed Yes	2c	2,543$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.26	117	7.7%9 W · 108 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2f69…cf59backed Yes	3c	2,486$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.44	107	10.3%11 W · 96 L	+3.5wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	2c	2,157$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.99	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	1c	2,087$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.23	782	8.7%68 W · 714 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes	2c	2,032$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.14	122	27%33 W · 89 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	26cpaid	-50.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86c8…a09dbacked Yes	3c	1,934$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.46	61	23%14 W · 47 L	+2.7wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+34.5%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	3c	1,895$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.42	326	15.6%51 W · 275 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	3c	1,722$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$46.14	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	1c	1,627$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.31	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	1,385$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.93	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes	4c	1,265$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	653	11%72 W · 581 L	+10.8wins	+0.02per pick	9cpaid	-11%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes	5c	1,245$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.67	416	10.6%44 W · 372 L	-0.3wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	+11.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes	2c	1,013$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.56	217	6%13 W · 204 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-39.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes	2c	1,001$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.96	174	19%33 W · 141 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb3c…4a10backed Yes	5c	825.45$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.92	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12e0…d6f8backed Yes	4c	824.56$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.53	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	+3.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa873…6b47backed Yes	2c	775.87$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	+0.3wins	+0.04per pick	19cpaid	+7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	712.41$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.28	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes	5c	707.82$38 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$37.54	827	14.9%123 W · 704 L	+1.9wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-38.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes	6c	613.29$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.02	424	24.5%104 W · 320 L	-13.9wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x36cb…63d0backed Yes	2c	613.24$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14	282	11%31 W · 251 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-21.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x85f0…62ebbacked Yes	4c	538.83$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.61	101	14.9%15 W · 86 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+47.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x539e…3ccebacked Yes	2c	450$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.13	125	14.4%18 W · 107 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd5be…6b28backed Yes	5c	416.67$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	29cpaid	-26.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0d6e…54cfbacked Yes	4c	400$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.65	412	20.6%85 W · 327 L	+7.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	+3.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	4c	392.08$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.61	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb1e2…666dbacked Yes	4c	329.44$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.91	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	+2.9wins	+0.07per pick	5cpaid	+102.7%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x544e…86dcbacked Yes	4c	300$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.05	50	12%6 W · 44 L	+1.9wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+5.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3821…bde6backed Yes	7c	150$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	27	7.4%2 W · 25 L	-0.7wins	-0.03per pick	10cpaid	-29.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event