Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4b71b7d8bd5e7d4e8efd3e3ff70cbc7a41061e374d902ebb9139326286b0006a

Rebuilt 7 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Jul 25, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $220,247
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $154,719

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $220,247 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 125 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x524d…4495backed Yes	0c	22,631$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$79.75	161	22.4%36 W · 125 L	+8.4wins	+0.05per pick	17cpaid	+2.5%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes	1c	21,144$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$180.98	183	4.4%8 W · 175 L	+3.8wins	+0.02per pick	2cpaid	+235.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4827…7d38backed Yes	14c	7,894$1,105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,105.06	12	8.3%1 W · 11 L	-2.9wins	-0.24per pick	32cpaid	-72%equal weight	41-0.08 edge/pick
0x6c60…a15fbacked Yes	4c	4,666$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	2	0%0 W · 2 L	0.0wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes	14c	4,209$608 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$607.74	186	16.1%30 W · 156 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-52.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	9c	4,000$340 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$340	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes	0c	4,000$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.2	186	3.8%7 W · 179 L	-0.4wins	0.00per pick	4cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes	1c	3,997$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.67	185	11.4%21 W · 164 L	+5.8wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	-18.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x114a…f1d1backed Yes	16c	3,968$625 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$624.82	38	13.2%5 W · 33 L	-2.1wins	-0.06per pick	19cpaid	-25.4%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf22e…18f2backed Yes	1c	3,539$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.12	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.8wins	-0.04per pick	24cpaid	-43.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes	1c	3,256$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.4	174	19%33 W · 141 L	-5.0wins	-0.03per pick	22cpaid	-36.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	14c	3,099$434 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$434.35	630	21.7%137 W · 493 L	+2.3wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-24.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xd1b0…3f04backed Yes	7c	3,000$210 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$210	60	26.7%16 W · 44 L	+1.9wins	+0.03per pick	23cpaid	+22.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x666a…4bf0backed Yes	3c	3,000$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$83.24	181	7.7%14 W · 167 L	+1.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-15.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x539e…3ccebacked Yes	1c	2,996$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.77	125	14.4%18 W · 107 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed Yes	10c	2,396$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$235.84	424	24.5%104 W · 320 L	-13.9wins	-0.03per pick	28cpaid	-25.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa7e…0332backed Yes	1c	2,300$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31	151	5.3%8 W · 143 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	+227.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	2,122$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.61	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xed41…38afbacked Yes	2c	2,000$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42	128	25.8%33 W · 95 L	+7.1wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x50a8…98edbacked Yes	15c	1,700$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$248.87	334	22.2%74 W · 260 L	+7.5wins	+0.02per pick	20cpaid	+27.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	15c	1,669$244 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$243.63	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf512…0985backed Yes	14c	1,589$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220.39	121	17.4%21 W · 100 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-24.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9372…b267backed Yes	12c	1,450$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174	71	8.5%6 W · 65 L	+1.3wins	+0.02per pick	7cpaid	+19.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x70f8…513dbacked Yes	3c	1,423$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.61	74	17.6%13 W · 61 L	-1.1wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	+23.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	9c	1,400$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes	10c	1,274$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$125.73	405	19.8%80 W · 325 L	-18.3wins	-0.05per pick	24cpaid	-51.7%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa301…bcbdbacked Yes	17c	1,174$200 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200	36	19.4%7 W · 29 L	-3.0wins	-0.08per pick	28cpaid	-43.8%equal weight	45-0.05 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	10c	1,155$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.31	994	10.6%105 W · 889 L	-30.0wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes	1c	1,098$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.47	278	5%14 W · 264 L	-3.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-89.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes	3c	996.96$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.4	216	6%13 W · 203 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	6cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked Yes	3c	973.5$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.5	324	15.7%51 W · 273 L	-10.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-62.3%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	5c	914.98$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43.3	1,040	13.7%142 W · 898 L	+38.1wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	6c	902.96$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.1	882	10.3%91 W · 791 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	5c	783.44$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.03	574	20.9%120 W · 454 L	+9.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes	6c	756.61$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.33	312	24.7%77 W · 235 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	25cpaid	-19.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x35e0…44e0backed Yes	3c	700$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.7	46	15.2%7 W · 39 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-19.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	11c	653.62$71 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.29	126	14.3%18 W · 108 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes	3c	653.26$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.12	781	8.7%68 W · 713 L	-1.0wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x81d4…3c9fbacked Yes	15c	584.94$89 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.69	21	14.3%3 W · 18 L	-3.4wins	-0.16per pick	31cpaid	-44%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0x13fa…052abacked Yes	17c	520.06$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88.41	107	30.8%33 W · 74 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	31cpaid	-9.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb84c…e169backed Yes	9c	515.87$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.91	93	52.7%49 W · 44 L	+5.7wins	+0.06per pick	47cpaid	+21.6%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	80c	511.44$409 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$102.29	542	74.9%406 W · 136 L	+34.0wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x186c…1d32backed Yes	16c	500$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	15	33.3%5 W · 10 L	+0.3wins	+0.02per pick	32cpaid	-30.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x68ff…ec42backed Yes	7c	496.99$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.34	90	18.9%17 W · 73 L	+3.9wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	+26.7%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	13c	493.45$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$66.01	532	22.7%121 W · 411 L	-19.0wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.5%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x580f…e755backed Yes	16c	491.5$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.64	55	18.2%10 W · 45 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	-2.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	6c	486.77$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.17	1,036	11.1%115 W · 921 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes	12c	477.39$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.01	188	14.4%27 W · 161 L	+6.5wins	+0.03per pick	11cpaid	+21%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes	14c	440$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.3	119	32.8%39 W · 80 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	32cpaid	-17.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	7c	430$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.1	351	12.8%45 W · 306 L	+6.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x85f0…62ebbacked Yes	15c	400$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	101	14.9%15 W · 86 L	+2.7wins	+0.03per pick	12cpaid	+47.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x433e…6be1backed Yes	10c	400$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	90	24.4%22 W · 68 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	25cpaid	+14.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb26f…aa5fbacked Yes	17c	374.65$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.69	47	19.1%9 W · 38 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-1.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7fb…8eb0backed Yes	15c	360$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.4	32	15.6%5 W · 27 L	-3.6wins	-0.11per pick	27cpaid	-51.9%equal weight	43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes	14c	358.41$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.5	288	12.8%37 W · 251 L	+5.8wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes	10c	344.98$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.48	329	17%56 W · 273 L	+13.7wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	+5.9%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes	17c	339.56$57 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.13	245	24.9%61 W · 184 L	-13.8wins	-0.06per pick	31cpaid	-45%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x84d4…77a9backed Yes	10c	325.33$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32.06	17	41.2%7 W · 10 L	-0.3wins	-0.02per pick	43cpaid	-15.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8d3…8c21backed Yes	17c	312.98$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.21	38	18.4%7 W · 31 L	+1.0wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-11.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77d5…eacebacked Yes	9c	302.88$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26	100	8%8 W · 92 L	+3.2wins	+0.03per pick	5cpaid	+74.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2ca4…4d3bbacked Yes	11c	300$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33	7	14.3%1 W · 6 L	+0.5wins	+0.07per pick	7cpaid	+376.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x0086…1b8cbacked Yes	18c	284.44$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	31	35.5%11 W · 20 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	35cpaid	+145.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x8164…0813backed Yes	11c	280$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.8	277	7.9%22 W · 255 L	+0.6wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	+35.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x339d…06dabacked Yes	5c	262.65$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.75	81	23.5%19 W · 62 L	+3.0wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	-1.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa54c…8dc0backed Yes	20c	250$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50	16	31.3%5 W · 11 L	+0.2wins	+0.02per pick	30cpaid	-7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x056d…3b69backed Yes	17c	239.55$41 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.72	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-24.2%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	9c	223.78$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.08	879	17.2%151 W · 728 L	+2.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb286…c016backed Yes	12c	220$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.4	15	20%3 W · 12 L	+1.0wins	+0.06per pick	14cpaid	+66.7%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x0862…9a02backed Yes	12c	209.87$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.25	110	24.5%27 W · 83 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-20.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9996…bda1backed Yes	14c	200$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28	145	13.8%20 W · 125 L	-8.8wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-34.5%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x4ff6…4e36backed Yes	16c	200$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-5.1wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-18.2%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe457…5ab3backed Yes	13c	200$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	96	47.9%46 W · 50 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	46cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc94a…3975backed Yes	16c	200$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$32	62	40.3%25 W · 37 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	37cpaid	-10.1%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3db2…0f2ebacked Yes	9c	200$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18	76	31.6%24 W · 52 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	27cpaid	+1.3%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x544e…86dcbacked Yes	12c	199.99$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	49	12.2%6 W · 43 L	+2.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+7.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3013…2cd8backed Yes	12c	198$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.76	261	13.8%36 W · 225 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x0670…09c7backed Yes	17c	197.3$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.54	27	22.2%6 W · 21 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x38e8…0121backed Yes	20c	196.76$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.35	17	17.6%3 W · 14 L	+0.7wins	+0.04per pick	14cpaid	+8.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x67bf…b296backed Yes	13c	192.31$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	360	18.9%68 W · 292 L	-1.3wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-8.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdd33…f47ebacked Yes	16c	190.49$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	177	20.9%37 W · 140 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	23cpaid	-0.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes	16c	189.81$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.37	312	17.9%56 W · 256 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-22.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7c09…eea9backed Yes	16c	180.45$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.7	64	18.8%12 W · 52 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	18cpaid	+32.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x289a…f184backed Yes	15c	177.07$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.56	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.8wins	-0.06per pick	20cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes	6c	174.27$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.67	212	22.2%47 W · 165 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-18.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed Yes	6c	167.87$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.88	350	24%84 W · 266 L	-10.5wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	14c	163.2$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.44	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x29e1…29f8backed Yes	17c	150.99$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.93	41	12.2%5 W · 36 L	-2.5wins	-0.06per pick	18cpaid	+1.7%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xf864…7fb5backed Yes	14c	150$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.4wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	13c	150$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x9484…a173backed Yes	17c	150$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.5	400	16.8%67 W · 333 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50f3…c137backed Yes	16c	150$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24	23	34.8%8 W · 15 L	+2.0wins	+0.09per pick	26cpaid	+40.3%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x355f…1847backed Yes	18c	133.11$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.9	13	15.4%2 W · 11 L	-0.6wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xfe3f…abe7backed Yes	16c	131.25$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21	7	28.6%2 W · 5 L	+1.0wins	+0.14per pick	14cpaid	+25.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x795d…7ba7backed Yes	9c	130$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.3	10	30%3 W · 7 L	+0.6wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	+24.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x57b4…aae2backed Yes	13c	125.42$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.93	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-1.2wins	-0.13per pick	13cpaid	-100%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7581…2ca4backed Yes	20c	125$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	11	18.2%2 W · 9 L	-0.7wins	-0.06per pick	25cpaid	-44.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x59b4…8c04backed Yes	18c	119.44$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.5	3	0%0 W · 3 L	-0.9wins	-0.29per pick	29cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1239…f34cbacked Yes	20c	115.8$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.16	27	11.1%3 W · 24 L	-3.7wins	-0.14per pick	25cpaid	-64%equal weight	42-0.07 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes	16c	115.39$18 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.46	154	7.8%12 W · 142 L	+2.0wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-30.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe608…f6e8backed Yes	15c	113.38$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.01	72	52.8%38 W · 34 L	+5.5wins	+0.08per pick	45cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 23 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event