TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x79d6…d2e2

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
119
Categories scored
22
Categories below 50
16

Best Category: Middle East, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Middle East at 55 out of 100; worst AI at 40.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2356.5%13 W · 10 L+2.3wins+0.10per pick47cpaid+10.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+27.7%+$3.25
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+81.8%+$12.27
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+135.9%+$14.98
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$140.68
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.4
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.56
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+107.4%+$26.41
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.8
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 14, 2026, EDT+80.2%+$8.9
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+165.3%+$63.01
Iran closes its airspace by June 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+264.2%+$63.97
Iran closes its airspace by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT+137.1%+$38.56
Iran closes its airspace by June 8?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$25.3
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.2
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.67
Iran closes its airspace by May 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+73%+$92.15
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$174Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+43.6%+$75.67
Iran closes its airspace by May 27?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 31, 2026, EDT+37.7%+$10.95
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$181Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+32.8%+$59.3
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$15.3
Iran closes its airspace by May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.68
US forces enter Iran by April 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.5
US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$16
All 23 picks, newest first.
Tweetslast resolved Aug 20, 2026, EDT2010%2 W · 18 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick19cpaid-62.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.85
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 14 to August 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.96
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 11 to August 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.3
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 31 to August 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$41.65
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$37.23
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.23
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$49.46
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 24 to July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.04
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.7
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.07
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.82
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.8
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.82
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT+275.1%+$41.07
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 10 to July 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.18
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.95
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.18
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.51
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.65
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from February 10 to February 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$11.36
All 20 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT1421.4%3 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-59.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gensyn FDV above $600M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.36
Gensyn FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+100.3%+$24.05
Will MegaETH launch a token by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.67
EdgeX FDV above $600M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.5
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.18
Based FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+61.3%+$8.36
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.02
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.75
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.02
Will Opinion launch a token on March 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$20.61
Hyperlend FDV above $20M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+102.7%+$15.2
Espresso FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$20.6
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$13
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$28.98
All 14 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT1010%1 W · 9 L-3.0wins-0.30per pick40cpaid-85.1%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
AI — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.6
Will Elon Musk win his case against Sam Altman?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT+48.6%+$12.33
Will Claude 5 be released by September 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.11
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$64Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.42
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$126.2
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.53
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$37Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$36.91
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.98
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.12
Tesla launches unsupervised full self driving (FSD) by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 28, 2026, EST-100%-$11
All 10 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.06per pick48cpaid-18%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NBA — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.1wins-0.19per pick35cpaid-66%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
CS2 — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 7, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-62.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Commodities — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Lol Inactivelast resolved Mar 16, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-25.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Lol — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jun 6, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.32per pick35cpaid+174.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 22, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick36cpaid+109.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick50cpaid+5.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Dota2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 5, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-54.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Dota2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Dota2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Jan 4, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-38.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
NHL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Bruins vs. Canucksbacked Bruins · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+85.7%+$12.86
Avalanche vs. Predatorsbacked Avalanche · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$13.2
Sabres vs. Oilersbacked Oilers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST-100%-$13.2
All 3 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 5, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
NFL — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Falcons (-3.5)backed Falcons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$16.4
Chiefs vs. Raidersbacked Chiefs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$14.95
Browns vs. Bengalsbacked Bengals · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$10.64
All 3 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-5.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Long Beach State Beach vs. Bakersfield Roadrunnersbacked Long Beach State Beach · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST+88.7%+$9.38
Nevada Wolf Pack vs. UNLV Runnin' Rebelsbacked Nevada Wolf Pack · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$11.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick59cpaid-15.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Juventus FC vs. Páfos FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 10, 2025, EST+69.5%+$8.61
Spread: FC Bayern München (-1.5)backed Sporting CP · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$17.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Tennis Inactivelast resolved Jan 9, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Tennis — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tennis, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

UFC Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+244.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
UFC Fight Night: Sean Strickland vs. Anthony Hernandez (Middleweight, Main Card)backed Strickland · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+244.8%+$24.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 15, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.70per pick30cpaid+228.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT+228.8%+$25.05
All 1 picks, newest first.
Valorant Inactivelast resolved Jan 20, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Valorant — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Valorant, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Valorant: FUT Esports vs Gentle Mates (BO3)backed FUT Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 20, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will France win on 2026-06-04?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.97
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.