Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xadf84b3620704fef4136a0904a410688901f614c0e3f414d7d787494881f1334
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $319,595
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $231,323
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $319,595 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 326 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 19c | 30,151$5,655 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,655.48 | 186 | 16.1%30 W · 156 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 12c | 10,650$1,265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,264.97 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 21c | 8,119$1,727 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,726.99 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 28c | 8,106$2,242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,241.71 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…d0a4backed Yes | 14c | 6,705$917 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$916.65 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 18c | 5,615$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.04 | 630 | 21.7%137 W · 493 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4827…7d38backed Yes | 18c | 5,578$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 32cpaid | -72%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 23c | 4,725$1,109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,108.63 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 21c | 4,715$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 24c | 4,415$1,063 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,063.27 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x114a…f1d1backed Yes | 19c | 3,986$771 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$771.12 | 38 | 13.2%5 W · 33 L | -2.1wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd376…231dbacked Yes | 19c | 3,930$739 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$738.96 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 2c | 3,907$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.6 | 1,060 | 8.4%89 W · 971 L | +29.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xedc1…0a06backed Yes | 31c | 3,690$1,141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,140.95 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.07per pick | 39cpaid | +15%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 9c | 3,595$311 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.05 | 1,190 | 8.7%104 W · 1,086 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 0c | 3,300$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.18 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 18c | 3,259$572 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$571.52 | 161 | 22.4%36 W · 125 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 13c | 3,104$405 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$404.58 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 11c | 3,100$354 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$354.42 | 197 | 31%61 W · 136 L | +13.8wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 15c | 3,090$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.81 | 994 | 10.6%105 W · 889 L | -30.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 14c | 2,753$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$382.83 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 22c | 2,681$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 74c | 2,586$1,916 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$670.85 | 73 | 71.2%52 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 10c | 2,529$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.41 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes | 25c | 2,468$622 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$622.38 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…3e31backed No | 74c | 2,460$1,824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$635.97 | 119 | 26.9%32 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 13c | 2,415$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.78 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 23c | 2,402$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$562.55 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 15c | 2,264$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.66 | 324 | 15.7%51 W · 273 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 74c | 2,261$1,677 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.99 | 219 | 59.8%131 W · 88 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…1ad5backed Yes | 33c | 2,190$716 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$715.69 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdce0…2dafbacked Yes | 17c | 2,077$349 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.15 | 303 | 17.2%52 W · 251 L | +8.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 13c | 1,902$251 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.88 | 574 | 20.9%120 W · 454 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed No | 78c | 1,812$1,416 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$396.51 | 114 | 30.7%35 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 73c | 1,703$1,242 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$460.87 | 542 | 74.9%406 W · 136 L | +34.0wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 10c | 1,674$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.91 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7141…8345backed Yes | 16c | 1,575$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.4 | 151 | 36.4%55 W · 96 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…0985backed Yes | 17c | 1,561$267 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.34 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 18c | 1,419$259 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$258.86 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 17c | 1,398$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.6 | 882 | 10.3%91 W · 791 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81fb…25f3backed No | 77c | 1,289$994 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$295.47 | 34 | 79.4%27 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 77cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 9c | 1,227$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.42 | 552 | 5.6%31 W · 521 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…2cd8backed Yes | 17c | 1,223$213 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.13 | 261 | 13.8%36 W · 225 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 17c | 1,220$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210.49 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked Yes | 11c | 1,133$123 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.57 | 154 | 7.8%12 W · 142 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 15c | 1,102$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 21c | 1,100$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236 | 320 | 16.6%53 W · 267 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 10c | 1,095$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.41 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc8d3…8c21backed Yes | 10c | 1,088$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.95 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 16cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,086$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.49 | 405 | 19.8%80 W · 325 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8221…9207backed Yes | 23c | 1,058$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.33 | 50 | 28%14 W · 36 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -10%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 78c | 1,032$803 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$228.8 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 15c | 1,016$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.07 | 130 | 14.6%19 W · 111 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac5f…d808backed Yes | 7c | 999.99$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…0b6bbacked No | 72c | 999.98$716 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$283.99 | 246 | 72.8%179 W · 67 L | +15.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7354…430fbacked No | 78c | 900$699 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201 | 186 | 76.9%143 W · 43 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58a5…ec93backed No | 79c | 851$669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$182.14 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 80cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aed…5925backed Yes | 21c | 836.8$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$178.1 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 16c | 816.9$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.33 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 14c | 804.2$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.93 | 270 | 24.4%66 W · 204 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13fa…052abacked No | 78c | 764.02$597 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.92 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1aed…0b9dbacked Yes | 36c | 759.04$270 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 16c | 736.42$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.56 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x514b…6931backed No | 76c | 733.35$559 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$174.03 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…8eb0backed Yes | 21c | 709.98$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.9 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0df4…c7cbbacked No | 65c | 702.6$454 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.92 | 55 | 67.3%37 W · 18 L | +1.8wins | +0.03per pick | 64cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13d8…06c4backed Yes | 1c | 700$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 18c | 673.89$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.56 | 312 | 24.7%77 W · 235 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81d4…3c9fbacked Yes | 26c | 655.91$173 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$172.8 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x2673…5ac9backed Yes | 26c | 641.25$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 178 | 24.7%44 W · 134 L | +5.5wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | +10.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3b27…0b98backed No | 79c | 634.58$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.38 | 344 | 27%93 W · 251 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…ba69backed Yes | 10c | 631.32$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.4 | 158 | 17.7%28 W · 130 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 13c | 603.23$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.4 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf67b…1ac0backed Yes | 30c | 587.42$178 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.73 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…e560backed Yes | 10c | 585.34$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.79 | 152 | 21.1%32 W · 120 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 20c | 569.98$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.7 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbd70…d270backed Yes | 8c | 556.52$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.52 | 751 | 22.2%167 W · 584 L | +15.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -35.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfcbe…b37cbacked Yes | 22c | 542.16$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 74 | 32.4%24 W · 50 L | +1.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 18c | 535.76$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.58 | 781 | 8.7%68 W · 713 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…bda1backed Yes | 21c | 512.2$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.03 | 145 | 13.8%20 W · 125 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 15c | 507.98$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.86 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8233…df36backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…23fdbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 154 | 35.1%54 W · 100 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 16c | 499.99$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb614…2a44backed Yes | 22c | 498.86$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.75 | 113 | 39.8%45 W · 68 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfec7…ae1cbacked Yes | 21c | 480.42$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 132 | 15.9%21 W · 111 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c83…28d9backed Yes | 25c | 480$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed No | 77c | 470.15$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd1…d2f6backed Yes | 15c | 469.78$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.47 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x355f…1847backed Yes | 17c | 463.94$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.98 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3d77…7004backed Yes | 13c | 453.84$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.54 | 38 | 15.8%6 W · 32 L | -2.3wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -38%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5578backed Yes | 22c | 442.29$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 288 | 12.8%37 W · 251 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…4c75backed Yes | 25c | 440.85$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc4f8…97b3backed Yes | 18c | 414.16$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.53 | 221 | 42.5%94 W · 127 L | +3.4wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -10.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29e1…29f8backed Yes | 20c | 410$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.7 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…d3dfbacked Yes | 23c | 400$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.11 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcadc…4285backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 97 | 28.9%28 W · 69 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 26cpaid | +14.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes | 15c | 399$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.01 | 278 | 5%14 W · 264 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15c2…fba2backed Yes | 9c | 374.17$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 40 | 20%8 W · 32 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -24.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x699b…0296backed Yes | 17c | 370.65$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.23 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.