Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7f69b98e53adb40c565c572a06f8e7e2c42c7e69f8de8e8e4c0b31e4e10728a5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $317,110
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $251,661
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $317,110 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 378 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 2c | 21,507$439 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$439 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 34c | 20,514$6,984 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,984.4 | 192 | 15.6%30 W · 162 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -53.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…8733backed Yes | 6c | 8,000$511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$510.62 | 571 | 8.2%47 W · 524 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 9c | 7,690$672 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.42 | 407 | 19.7%80 W · 327 L | -18.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa43e…ec90backed No | 73c | 7,241$5,273 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,968.37 | 37 | 45.9%17 W · 20 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 46c | 6,038$2,757 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,757.02 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 30c | 6,014$1,825 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,825.08 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 16c | 6,000$965 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$965.34 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…3e31backed No | 63c | 5,656$3,554 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,102.8 | 122 | 27%33 W · 89 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x408a…ac7fbacked Yes | 1c | 5,179$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.09 | 69 | 40.6%28 W · 41 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 38c | 4,376$1,648 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,648.27 | 535 | 22.6%121 W · 414 L | -19.4wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 18c | 4,073$717 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.24 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 36c | 4,040$1,460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,460.21 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 9c | 3,985$365 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$364.62 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 30c | 3,821$1,132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,132.29 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 39c | 3,698$1,429 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,429.17 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x114a…f1d1backed Yes | 17c | 3,025$503 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$503.32 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -2.4wins | -0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked No | 68c | 2,869$1,954 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$914.58 | 564 | 29.8%168 W · 396 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 73c | 2,710$1,986 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$724.28 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed No | 53c | 2,403$1,279 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,123.08 | 162 | 22.2%36 W · 126 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 69c | 2,167$1,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.94 | 546 | 75.1%410 W · 136 L | +34.8wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4827…7d38backed Yes | 37c | 2,136$800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$800 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 32cpaid | -72%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed Yes | 60c | 2,116$1,275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,275.33 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc5f5…e714backed Yes | 31c | 2,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 83 | 24.1%20 W · 63 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes | 30c | 1,976$592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$591.53 | 187 | 26.7%50 W · 137 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed No | 61c | 1,920$1,164 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$755.35 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 25c | 1,835$462 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$461.89 | 1,001 | 10.5%105 W · 896 L | -30.9wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 20c | 1,656$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.56 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 14c | 1,622$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.44 | 886 | 10.3%91 W · 795 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 17c | 1,611$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.17 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,566$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.41 | 272 | 24.3%66 W · 206 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 35c | 1,507$533 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$533 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 35c | 1,506$524 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$524.42 | 320 | 16.6%53 W · 267 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked No | 78c | 1,424$1,113 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$310.68 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 33c | 1,271$421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.94 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 19c | 1,230$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.05 | 576 | 21.2%122 W · 454 L | +9.9wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…0b6bbacked No | 61c | 1,184$727 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$456.87 | 248 | 73%181 W · 67 L | +15.9wins | +0.06per pick | 67cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 14c | 1,166$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$158.32 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x55c5…1710backed Yes | 28c | 1,162$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.76 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 58c | 1,114$652 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.58 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes | 40c | 1,111$443 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$443.27 | 173 | 35.3%61 W · 112 L | +3.0wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed No | 62c | 1,102$687 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$415.69 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked No | 76c | 1,079$824 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$255.18 | 326 | 15.6%51 W · 275 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x913f…c676backed Yes | 30c | 1,067$323 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$323.22 | 100 | 43%43 W · 57 L | -7.6wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8f66…b986backed Yes | 8c | 1,042$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.92 | 568 | 17.4%99 W · 469 L | +18.3wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -17.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7354…430fbacked No | 61c | 1,025$620 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.73 | 188 | 77.1%145 W · 43 L | +12.3wins | +0.07per pick | 71cpaid | +7.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b0…3f04backed No | 78c | 999.99$780 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 23cpaid | +22.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 15c | 999.51$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.86 | 199 | 30.7%61 W · 138 L | +13.6wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +20.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…ffcfbacked No | 61c | 931.37$568 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.12 | 200 | 9%18 W · 182 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +173%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 26c | 907.93$238 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$238.24 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked No | 68c | 900$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…513dbacked Yes | 12c | 899.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac5f…d808backed Yes | 17c | 899.99$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.16 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 17c | 893.62$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.63 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 59c | 869.1$516 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$353.34 | 130 | 14.6%19 W · 111 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b61…a7fabacked Yes | 61c | 832.02$505 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$505.25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.07per pick | 34cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb36…0d51backed Yes | 15c | 812.17$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.73 | 69 | 21.7%15 W · 54 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | +26%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 16c | 799.99$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes | 31c | 799.52$248 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.14 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 15c | 776.07$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.38 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aed…0b9dbacked Yes | 36c | 756.53$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275 | 83 | 32.5%27 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x019f…1152backed Yes | 40c | 753$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301.2 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 30cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7111…7c21backed Yes | 40c | 741.75$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.66 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -33.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…8eb0backed Yes | 29c | 729.98$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$214.85 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 17c | 715.83$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.62 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d8…06c4backed Yes | 16c | 700$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 57c | 660$376 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$284.44 | 190 | 53.7%102 W · 88 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 54cpaid | -8.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7712…155abacked No | 55c | 638.62$348 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$290.18 | 158 | 44.9%71 W · 87 L | +12.4wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xafef…a8b1backed Yes | 30c | 604.99$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.89 | 96 | 28.1%27 W · 69 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -22.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe040…824fbacked No | 75c | 604.39$450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.1 | 101 | 51.5%52 W · 49 L | +2.9wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -0.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 10c | 600$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad0c…df3cbacked No | 72c | 599.99$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$169 | 280 | 34.3%96 W · 184 L | +3.1wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471a…0328backed No | 49c | 599.87$292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.93 | 312 | 42.9%134 W · 178 L | +20.0wins | +0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -29.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 21c | 595.88$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.2 | 1,045 | 13.6%142 W · 903 L | +37.8wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee9…7d37backed Yes | 19c | 591.37$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…d0a4backed Yes | 38c | 591.2$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224.89 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9068…e0d2backed Yes | 32c | 584.88$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.8 | 160 | 24.4%39 W · 121 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 65c | 572.77$373 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$372.58 | 412 | 30.8%127 W · 285 L | +7.9wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29e1…29f8backed Yes | 17c | 568.31$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.85 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 538.1$418 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$120.25 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…23fdbacked Yes | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 154 | 35.1%54 W · 100 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 16c | 499.99$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8233…df36backed Yes | 55c | 499.93$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.37 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 78c | 461$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.75 | 309 | 55%170 W · 139 L | +3.6wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x079a…d3dfbacked Yes | 23c | 460$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8815…438dbacked Yes | 24c | 458.11$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.74 | 56 | 19.6%11 W · 45 L | +2.8wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 22c | 443.17$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.09 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb44…d480backed Yes | 15c | 442.74$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.84 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bd1…d2f6backed Yes | 15c | 440.83$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 22cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf67b…1ac0backed Yes | 34c | 434.99$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.95 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x699b…0296backed Yes | 16c | 419.63$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.35 | 193 | 14%27 W · 166 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +17.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x26dc…e03abacked Yes | 30c | 415.02$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.71 | 202 | 22.8%46 W · 156 L | +2.4wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3de6…e560backed Yes | 17c | 409.92$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.06 | 152 | 21.1%32 W · 120 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -15.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5578backed Yes | 18c | 400.87$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74 | 289 | 12.8%37 W · 252 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe62e…cc81backed Yes | 25c | 400$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 167 | 41.3%69 W · 98 L | -5.6wins | -0.03per pick | 45cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ca4…4d3bbacked Yes | 11c | 400$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 7cpaid | +376.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 9c | 400$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 22c | 395.96$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.11 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb614…2a44backed Yes | 39c | 394.56$155 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.29 | 113 | 39.8%45 W · 68 L | +3.9wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77d5…eacebacked Yes | 6c | 381.82$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 100 | 8%8 W · 92 L | +3.2wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.