TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$317,110
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$251,661

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $317,110 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 378 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xb476…6eacbacked Yes2c21,507$439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4393616.7%6 W · 30 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-39.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes34c20,514$6,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,984.419215.6%30 W · 162 L-4.3wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-53.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes6c8,000$511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.625718.2%47 W · 524 L+1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes9c7,690$672 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$672.4240719.7%80 W · 327 L-18.4wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa43e…ec90backed No73c7,241$5,273 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,968.373745.9%17 W · 20 L-0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes46c6,038$2,757 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,757.0211932.8%39 W · 80 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes30c6,014$1,825 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,825.0822325.1%56 W · 167 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick24cpaid-45.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes16c6,000$965 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$965.3470616.4%116 W · 590 L-13.6wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-29%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed No63c5,656$3,554 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,102.812227%33 W · 89 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-50.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x408a…ac7fbacked Yes1c5,179$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.096940.6%28 W · 41 L+2.3wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes38c4,376$1,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,648.2753522.6%121 W · 414 L-19.4wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6964…ef53backed Yes18c4,073$717 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$717.2466222.2%147 W · 515 L-34.7wins-0.05per pick27cpaid-58.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes36c4,040$1,460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,460.2131217.9%56 W · 256 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes9c3,985$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364.621,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes30c3,821$1,132 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,132.2939723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes39c3,698$1,429 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,429.1754122.7%123 W · 418 L+16.6wins+0.03per pick20cpaid+3.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x114a…f1d1backed Yes17c3,025$503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$503.324012.5%5 W · 35 L-2.4wins-0.06per pick19cpaid-29.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc4d5…87cfbacked No68c2,869$1,954 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$914.5856429.8%168 W · 396 L+2.2wins0.00per pick29cpaid-39.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No73c2,710$1,986 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$724.2820857.2%119 W · 89 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed No53c2,403$1,279 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,123.0816222.2%36 W · 126 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+1.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No69c2,167$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$666.9454675.1%410 W · 136 L+34.8wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x4827…7d38backed Yes37c2,136$800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$800128.3%1 W · 11 L-2.9wins-0.24per pick32cpaid-72%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x7505…2978backed Yes60c2,116$1,275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,275.3316941.4%70 W · 99 L+6.2wins+0.04per pick38cpaid-7.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc5f5…e714backed Yes31c2,000$620 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6208324.1%20 W · 63 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick23cpaid-17.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e6…e0bbbacked Yes30c1,976$592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$591.5318726.7%50 W · 137 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed No61c1,920$1,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$755.3534425.6%88 W · 256 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes25c1,835$462 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$461.891,00110.5%105 W · 896 L-30.9wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes20c1,656$330 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.5627417.5%48 W · 226 L+11.0wins+0.04per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes14c1,622$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.4488610.3%91 W · 795 L-4.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes17c1,611$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.1776821.7%167 W · 601 L-2.0wins0.00per pick22cpaid-49.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked Yes3c1,566$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.4127224.3%66 W · 206 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc36…8542backed Yes35c1,507$533 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53323222.4%52 W · 180 L+2.3wins+0.01per pick21cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes35c1,506$524 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$524.4232016.6%53 W · 267 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked No78c1,424$1,113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.6814037.1%52 W · 88 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-20.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes33c1,271$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.942,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes19c1,230$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$235.0557621.2%122 W · 454 L+9.9wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-27.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No61c1,184$727 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.8724873%181 W · 67 L+15.9wins+0.06per pick67cpaid+6.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa59c…bb62backed Yes14c1,166$158 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$158.3217419%33 W · 141 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick22cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x55c5…1710backed Yes28c1,162$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$321.76333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.12per pick21cpaid+29.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed No58c1,114$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$462.5842424.5%104 W · 320 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc44a…0f0ebacked Yes40c1,111$443 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$443.2717335.3%61 W · 112 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick34cpaid+1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf452…8ff9backed No62c1,102$687 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$415.6915128.5%43 W · 108 L+0.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid+21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6864…294bbacked No76c1,079$824 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.1832615.6%51 W · 275 L-10.1wins-0.03per pick19cpaid-62.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x913f…c676backed Yes30c1,067$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$323.2210043%43 W · 57 L-7.6wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-31.8%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x8f66…b986backed Yes8c1,042$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.9256817.4%99 W · 469 L+18.3wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-17.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No61c1,025$620 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.7318877.1%145 W · 43 L+12.3wins+0.07per pick71cpaid+7.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd1b0…3f04backed No78c999.99$780 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2206026.7%16 W · 44 L+1.9wins+0.03per pick23cpaid+22.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes15c999.51$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$148.8619930.7%61 W · 138 L+13.6wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+20.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked No61c931.37$568 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$363.122009%18 W · 182 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+173%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes26c907.93$238 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$238.2484616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfd5c…6d2abacked No68c900$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29062539.5%247 W · 378 L+48.1wins+0.08per pick32cpaid+19.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x70f8…513dbacked Yes12c899.99$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1087417.6%13 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick19cpaid+23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xac5f…d808backed Yes17c899.99$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.164623.9%11 W · 35 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes17c893.62$151 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.6388017.3%152 W · 728 L+2.4wins0.00per pick17cpaid-32.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No59c869.1$516 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$353.3413014.6%19 W · 111 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-50.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2b61…a7fabacked Yes61c832.02$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$505.251127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.07per pick34cpaid-51.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbb36…0d51backed Yes15c812.17$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.736921.7%15 W · 54 L-0.1wins0.00per pick22cpaid+26%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes16c799.99$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12650913.8%70 W · 439 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes31c799.52$248 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.144829.2%14 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes15c776.07$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.3873215.2%111 W · 621 L+11.7wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1aed…0b9dbacked Yes36c756.53$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2758332.5%27 W · 56 L-1.7wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-15%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x019f…1152backed Yes40c753$301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301.24131.7%13 W · 28 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick30cpaid-15.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7111…7c21backed Yes40c741.75$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.661844.4%8 W · 10 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick47cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7fb…8eb0backed Yes29c729.98$215 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$214.853215.6%5 W · 27 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-51.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes17c715.83$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.6288018.6%164 W · 716 L+10.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13d8…06c4backed Yes16c700$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1123912.8%5 W · 34 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick8cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9f20…12c3backed No57c660$376 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$284.4419053.7%102 W · 88 L-0.6wins0.00per pick54cpaid-8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7712…155abacked No55c638.62$348 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.1815844.9%71 W · 87 L+12.4wins+0.08per pick37cpaid-6.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xafef…a8b1backed Yes30c604.99$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$183.899628.1%27 W · 69 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick29cpaid-22.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe040…824fbacked No75c604.39$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.110151.5%52 W · 49 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid-0.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes10c600$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6043719.7%86 W · 351 L-10.8wins-0.02per pick22cpaid-44.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xad0c…df3cbacked No72c599.99$431 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16928034.3%96 W · 184 L+3.1wins+0.01per pick33cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x471a…0328backed No49c599.87$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.9331242.9%134 W · 178 L+20.0wins+0.06per pick37cpaid-29.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes21c595.88$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.21,04513.6%142 W · 903 L+37.8wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7ee9…7d37backed Yes19c591.37$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11010924.8%27 W · 82 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+38.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc2a…d0a4backed Yes38c591.2$225 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.891631.3%5 W · 11 L+1.1wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+28.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9068…e0d2backed Yes32c584.88$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.816024.4%39 W · 121 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick25cpaid-7.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes65c572.77$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.5841230.8%127 W · 285 L+7.9wins+0.02per pick29cpaid+0.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x29e1…29f8backed Yes17c568.31$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.854112.2%5 W · 36 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick18cpaid+1.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No78c538.1$418 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.2510556.2%59 W · 46 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked Yes44c500$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22015435.1%54 W · 100 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes16c499.99$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8079811.3%90 W · 708 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8233…df36backed Yes55c499.93$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276.373234.4%11 W · 21 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick35cpaid+11.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x28bf…4a4ebacked No78c461$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.7530955%170 W · 139 L+3.6wins+0.01per pick54cpaid+2.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x079a…d3dfbacked Yes23c460$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.8742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.11per pick54cpaid-37.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x8815…438dbacked Yes24c458.11$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.745619.6%11 W · 45 L+2.8wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+28.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes22c443.17$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.091,7827.4%132 W · 1,650 L-23.2wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb44…d480backed Yes15c442.74$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.842015%3 W · 17 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick20cpaid-30.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3bd1…d2f6backed Yes15c440.83$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick22cpaid+14.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf67b…1ac0backed Yes34c434.99$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.953321.2%7 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-37.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x699b…0296backed Yes16c419.63$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.3519314%27 W · 166 L+5.9wins+0.03per pick11cpaid+17.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x26dc…e03abacked Yes30c415.02$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.7120222.8%46 W · 156 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick22cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3de6…e560backed Yes17c409.92$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.0615221.1%32 W · 120 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick19cpaid-15.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes18c400.87$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7428912.8%37 W · 252 L+5.7wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-10.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe62e…cc81backed Yes25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10016741.3%69 W · 98 L-5.6wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-17.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2ca4…4d3bbacked Yes11c400$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.07per pick7cpaid+376.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes9c400$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357828.7%68 W · 714 L-1.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes22c395.96$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.1133527.8%93 W · 242 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb614…2a44backed Yes39c394.56$155 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.2911339.8%45 W · 68 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77d5…eacebacked Yes6c381.82$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$241008%8 W · 92 L+3.2wins+0.03per pick5cpaid+74.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.