Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe8a070bc800badde21501e0e509b5cc2539440f1c1500b8aa41a1be43a91a75b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $431,445
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $278,591
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $431,445 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 172 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 9c | 27,145$2,417 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,416.52 | 186 | 16.1%30 W · 156 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 0c | 9,595$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.85 | 552 | 5.6%31 W · 521 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfd5c…6d2abacked Yes | 1c | 9,508$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.52 | 625 | 39.5%247 W · 378 L | +48.1wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +19.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7505…2978backed Yes | 3c | 9,392$247 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$247.23 | 169 | 41.4%70 W · 99 L | +6.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbcb…bb5dbacked Yes | 8c | 9,015$679 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$678.85 | 223 | 25.1%56 W · 167 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55c5…1710backed Yes | 9c | 7,669$719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$719.31 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +29.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 18c | 7,000$1,286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,286.05 | 706 | 16.4%116 W · 590 L | -13.6wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -29%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf8b…481ebacked Yes | 2c | 6,543$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.15 | 185 | 11.4%21 W · 164 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -18.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x206b…7d6abacked Yes | 1c | 6,162$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.29 | 524 | 9.9%52 W · 472 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +64%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…4375backed Yes | 1c | 6,082$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.13 | 254 | 13.4%34 W · 220 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4d5…87cfbacked Yes | 4c | 5,627$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.17 | 563 | 29.8%168 W · 395 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 5c | 5,373$275 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$275.02 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 2c | 5,000$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.2 | 797 | 11.3%90 W · 707 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 8c | 4,958$392 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$392.25 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 6c | 4,715$296 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$296.36 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 14c | 4,599$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.45 | 532 | 22.7%121 W · 411 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6964…ef53backed Yes | 5c | 4,518$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.57 | 662 | 22.2%147 W · 515 L | -34.7wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -58.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 7c | 4,517$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.79 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 13c | 4,483$577 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.49 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b1a…639dbacked Yes | 5c | 4,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 40 | 25%10 W · 30 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…8733backed Yes | 4c | 4,000$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.42 | 571 | 8.2%47 W · 524 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 14c | 3,930$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$541.08 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 5c | 3,780$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175.46 | 1,060 | 8.4%89 W · 971 L | +29.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa002…e840backed Yes | 0c | 3,500$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.6 | 186 | 3.8%7 W · 179 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,497$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.68 | 324 | 15.7%51 W · 273 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 4c | 3,347$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.13 | 1,190 | 8.7%104 W · 1,086 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 14c | 3,250$452 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$452 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 8c | 3,218$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.89 | 994 | 10.6%105 W · 889 L | -30.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8288…5519backed Yes | 5c | 3,011$144 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.05 | 159 | 29.6%47 W · 112 L | +0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 8c | 2,967$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.96 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,881$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.35 | 154 | 7.8%12 W · 142 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 7c | 2,819$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.57 | 574 | 20.9%120 W · 454 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4827…7d38backed Yes | 20c | 2,748$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.78 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 32cpaid | -72%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x13d8…06c4backed Yes | 2c | 2,700$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf452…8ff9backed Yes | 12c | 2,668$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.64 | 151 | 28.5%43 W · 108 L | +0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 5c | 2,575$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.81 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x828e…c21bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,477$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.55 | 274 | 17.5%48 W · 226 L | +11.0wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa59c…bb62backed Yes | 3c | 2,470$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.19 | 174 | 19%33 W · 141 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 5c | 2,455$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.65 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d0…542cbacked Yes | 0c | 2,450$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.92 | 67 | 4.5%3 W · 64 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 3c | 2,284$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79cb…331ebacked Yes | 1c | 2,279$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.51 | 456 | 8.3%38 W · 418 L | +1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 10c | 2,134$217 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.3 | 130 | 14.6%19 W · 111 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 6c | 2,126$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.03 | 161 | 22.4%36 W · 125 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xbb9c…072bbacked Yes | 6c | 2,082$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.24 | 134 | 30.6%41 W · 93 L | -4.5wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x765a…efb4backed Yes | 1c | 2,050$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.95 | 387 | 6.5%25 W · 362 L | +6.8wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 4c | 2,026$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.16 | 882 | 10.3%91 W · 791 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x90f1…72c6backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.6 | 624 | 12.3%77 W · 547 L | +16.2wins | +0.03per pick | 10cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49 | 111 | 6.3%7 W · 104 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes | 6c | 1,963$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.35 | 199 | 9%18 W · 181 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +174.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 7c | 1,881$124 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$123.75 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5099…9554backed Yes | 2c | 1,852$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed Yes | 9c | 1,758$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.99 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes | 10c | 1,751$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed Yes | 12c | 1,732$215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$215.05 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x881a…ccccbacked Yes | 5c | 1,652$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.09 | 132 | 35.6%47 W · 85 L | +10.5wins | +0.08per pick | 28cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 7c | 1,611$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.43 | 768 | 21.7%167 W · 601 L | -2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 22cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x355f…1847backed Yes | 16c | 1,552$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$245 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc36…8542backed Yes | 6c | 1,401$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86 | 232 | 22.4%52 W · 180 L | +2.3wins | +0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x504d…c5a4backed Yes | 4c | 1,383$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,365$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 80c | 1,357$1,086 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$271.5 | 542 | 74.9%406 W · 136 L | +34.0wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfa4a…fc9bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,326$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 90 | 35.6%32 W · 58 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35f3…cfd0backed Yes | 4c | 1,296$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.74 | 437 | 19.7%86 W · 351 L | -10.8wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -44.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0862…9a02backed Yes | 9c | 1,220$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.1 | 110 | 24.5%27 W · 83 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 11c | 1,200$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132.2 | 320 | 16.6%53 W · 267 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5578backed Yes | 3c | 1,134$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.75 | 288 | 12.8%37 W · 251 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…ba69backed Yes | 5c | 1,079$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.24 | 158 | 17.7%28 W · 130 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x47e4…7569backed Yes | 2c | 1,072$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.61 | 60 | 20%12 W · 48 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | +24.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,050$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.41 | 781 | 8.7%68 W · 713 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 7c | 1,020$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.72 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes | 10c | 1,011$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.78 | 119 | 26.9%32 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac5f…d808backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.02 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 216 | 6%13 W · 203 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x623f…53bcbacked Yes | 5c | 1,000$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.2 | 188 | 8%15 W · 173 L | +5.7wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +86%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99a6…6558backed Yes | 8c | 994.1$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes | 3c | 972.73$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.61 | 558 | 8.2%46 W · 512 L | +12.5wins | +0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc5e…4e9ebacked Yes | 8c | 875.93$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.41 | 60 | 26.7%16 W · 44 L | +3.5wins | +0.06per pick | 21cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 3c | 870.76$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x35e0…44e0backed Yes | 2c | 832.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.2 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x666a…4bf0backed Yes | 2c | 832.91$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.66 | 181 | 7.7%14 W · 167 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x652e…4a94backed Yes | 6c | 817.47$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.15 | 133 | 23.3%31 W · 102 L | +6.8wins | +0.05per pick | 18cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…cf59backed Yes | 6c | 766.78$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.56 | 107 | 10.3%11 W · 96 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf8e…2f94backed Yes | 7c | 761.85$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.9 | 113 | 20.4%23 W · 90 L | +1.2wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc622…e1a4backed Yes | 5c | 750.32$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.73 | 54 | 33.3%18 W · 36 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699b…0296backed Yes | 6c | 692.62$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.61 | 188 | 14.4%27 W · 161 L | +6.5wins | +0.03per pick | 11cpaid | +21%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes | 8c | 692.12$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.37 | 252 | 11.5%29 W · 223 L | +5.0wins | +0.02per pick | 10cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3423…fe57backed Yes | 9c | 687.13$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.52 | 508 | 28.3%144 W · 364 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x056d…3b69backed Yes | 5c | 679.36$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.19 | 57 | 15.8%9 W · 48 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd5a…2ff7backed Yes | 3c | 650.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.04 | 147 | 21.8%32 W · 115 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 7c | 650$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.95 | 731 | 15.2%111 W · 620 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd26a…732cbacked Yes | 16c | 636.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 124 | 35.5%44 W · 80 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee9…7d37backed Yes | 15c | 622.26$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 17c | 602.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 465 | 21.3%99 W · 366 L | +8.0wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x636b…615bbacked Yes | 5c | 588.32$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.05 | 167 | 29.9%50 W · 117 L | +5.0wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 5c | 580.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 826 | 14.9%123 W · 703 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd42f…e0aabacked Yes | 10c | 558.9$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 4c | 550$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.84 | 578 | 11.4%66 W · 512 L | +19.8wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6a97…4800backed Yes | 8c | 539.59$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.17 | 686 | 15.7%108 W · 578 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 18cpaid | -40%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1425…d60dbacked Yes | 8c | 520$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.45 | 107 | 42.1%45 W · 62 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.