TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$142,515
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$72,101

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $142,515 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 21 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes0c31,576$65 inLost-$65.082009%18 W · 182 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+173%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes0c5,500$18 inLost-$185535.6%31 W · 522 L+15.5wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+41.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes1c4,863$25 inLost-$25.181116.3%7 W · 104 L+2.6wins+0.02per pick4cpaid+53.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes1c4,000$20 inLost-$205718.2%47 W · 524 L+1.2wins0.00per pick8cpaid-8.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes0c3,905$16 inLost-$15.71,1968.7%104 W · 1,092 L+31.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes0c3,210$12 inLost-$11.722785%14 W · 264 L-3.5wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-89.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes1c2,694$26 inLost-$26.042,55213.1%335 W · 2,217 L+4.3wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes0c2,605$11 inLost-$11.1988610.3%91 W · 795 L-4.2wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49.2%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes1c2,505$37 inLost-$37.2784616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes1c2,100$11 inLost-$10.679811.3%90 W · 708 L+30.0wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+33.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3256…830cbacked Yes1c1,790$15 inLost-$15.387828.7%68 W · 714 L-1.0wins0.00per pick9cpaid-36.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4f8d…99c7backed Yes2c1,785$36 inLost-$35.725311.5%29 W · 224 L+4.9wins+0.02per pick10cpaid-17.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe089…ad3abacked Yes1c1,554$18 inLost-$17.781834.4%8 W · 175 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid+235.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x666a…4bf0backed Yes2c1,554$28 inLost-$27.651817.7%14 W · 167 L+1.3wins+0.01per pick7cpaid-15.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x35e0…44e0backed Yes2c1,000$15 inLost-$15.264615.2%7 W · 39 L0.0wins0.00per pick15cpaid-19.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xac5f…d808backed Yes1c1,000$13 inLost-$134623.9%11 W · 35 L+0.9wins+0.02per pick22cpaid+28.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes2c928.6$20 inLost-$2046521.3%99 W · 366 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick24cpaid-24%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c888.58$18 inLost-$17.682,1633.9%85 W · 2,078 L+5.8wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes1c800$11 inLost-$1158011.4%66 W · 514 L+19.7wins+0.03per pick8cpaid+21.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc837…550abacked Yes3c744.19$20 inLost-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x13d8…06c4backed Yes3c699.98$21 inLost-$213912.8%5 W · 34 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick8cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.