Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x43dd972d171b6c77c829a32b5282c2b3b323857abfa3208a49bd7aefbdcdabf5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $170,887
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $107,411
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $170,887 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 158 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x215a…254cbacked Yes | 1c | 11,132$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.57 | 270 | 24.4%66 W · 204 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 12c | 10,763$1,300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,299.51 | 186 | 16.1%30 W · 156 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 13c | 6,987$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$896.58 | 630 | 21.7%137 W · 493 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8eab…a56dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,443$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.88 | 278 | 5%14 W · 264 L | -3.5wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -89.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 17c | 4,169$724 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$724.22 | 532 | 22.7%121 W · 411 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaca2…b9a1backed Yes | 15c | 4,000$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 541 | 22.7%123 W · 418 L | +16.6wins | +0.03per pick | 20cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes | 26c | 3,997$1,030 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,030 | 634 | 14.8%94 W · 540 L | -1.8wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -42.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x186c…1d32backed Yes | 6c | 3,500$210 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$210 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes | 16c | 3,279$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.68 | 119 | 26.9%32 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked Yes | 3c | 3,157$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.44 | 154 | 7.8%12 W · 142 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50a8…98edbacked Yes | 14c | 3,136$449 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448.66 | 334 | 22.2%74 W · 260 L | +7.5wins | +0.02per pick | 20cpaid | +27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 19c | 2,647$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.27 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 4c | 2,199$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.87 | 1,190 | 8.7%104 W · 1,086 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes | 21c | 2,062$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$429.92 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2127…37f2backed No | 77c | 2,000$1,545 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$454.72 | 108 | 66.7%72 W · 36 L | +4.8wins | +0.04per pick | 62cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 14c | 1,757$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.74 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 13c | 1,711$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.92 | 994 | 10.6%105 W · 889 L | -30.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4d5…66e1backed Yes | 3c | 1,490$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.78 | 826 | 14.9%123 W · 703 L | +1.9wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 12c | 1,381$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.46 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f00…487fbacked Yes | 8c | 1,378$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.18 | 280 | 16.4%46 W · 234 L | +8.8wins | +0.03per pick | 13cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 21c | 1,280$263 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.92 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…0985backed Yes | 14c | 1,154$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$166.5 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00dc…d521backed Yes | 20c | 1,151$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.71 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,109$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.83 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 16c | 1,098$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.69 | 405 | 19.8%80 W · 325 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 3c | 1,010$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.04 | 216 | 6%13 W · 203 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe559…1300backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 92 | 26.1%24 W · 68 L | -5.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked Yes | 8c | 999.92$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.99 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +10.0wins | +0.08per pick | 20cpaid | +55.1%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 7c | 974.28$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.25 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81cd…4882backed Yes | 12c | 954$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.16 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -24%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6864…294bbacked Yes | 7c | 849.95$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.66 | 324 | 15.7%51 W · 273 L | -10.1wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -62.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 19c | 809.67$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0368…c5febacked Yes | 28c | 713.35$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.74 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2f69…cf59backed Yes | 15c | 708.43$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.85 | 107 | 10.3%11 W · 96 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 7cpaid | +74.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 10c | 700.46$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.09 | 312 | 24.7%77 W · 235 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d8…06c4backed Yes | 2c | 699.97$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…1cf3backed Yes | 3c | 666.71$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.07 | 129 | 19.4%25 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e4…d1f7backed Yes | 5c | 660$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33 | 267 | 22.8%61 W · 206 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x467c…614dbacked Yes | 2c | 652.25$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 13c | 623.14$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.1 | 882 | 10.3%91 W · 791 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x81d4…3c9fbacked Yes | 17c | 598.5$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.78 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 13c | 579.49$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.34 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed Yes | 17c | 550$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.99 | 114 | 30.7%35 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…8eb0backed Yes | 20c | 550$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 11c | 514.67$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.99 | 1,036 | 11.1%115 W · 921 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3013…2cd8backed Yes | 20c | 500$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.84 | 261 | 13.8%36 W · 225 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -1.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 10c | 500$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 320 | 16.6%53 W · 267 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 80c | 500$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 542 | 74.9%406 W · 136 L | +34.0wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f4…2a00backed Yes | 11c | 472.73$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5a…1537backed Yes | 3c | 470.58$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.28 | 155 | 19.4%30 W · 125 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8c5…dd45backed Yes | 21c | 449.99$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…4c75backed Yes | 17c | 445.19$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5578backed Yes | 17c | 420.46$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 288 | 12.8%37 W · 251 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 20c | 419.4$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.81 | 197 | 31%61 W · 136 L | +13.8wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdb44…d480backed Yes | 19c | 400$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.15 | 20 | 15%3 W · 17 L | -1.0wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72be…67b8backed Yes | 18c | 400$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 97 | 24.7%24 W · 73 L | +4.3wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +21.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe207…9f79backed Yes | 27c | 395.08$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.58 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 79c | 388.73$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$81.63 | 73 | 71.2%52 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aed…5925backed Yes | 19c | 384.7$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.84 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 77c | 371.33$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$86.63 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 7c | 334.85$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.29 | 797 | 11.3%90 W · 707 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x18a0…dea8backed Yes | 16c | 324.01$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.51 | 574 | 20.9%120 W · 454 L | +9.4wins | +0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa562…6581backed Yes | 22c | 323.6$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +65.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 19c | 300$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57 | 781 | 8.7%68 W · 713 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 5c | 300$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7741…23e6backed Yes | 21c | 287.98$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.89 | 69 | 36.2%25 W · 44 L | +4.1wins | +0.06per pick | 30cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb9df…d830backed Yes | 19c | 287.15$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 160 | 17.5%28 W · 132 L | -2.4wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -32%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 79c | 280$222 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.4 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x55b4…a846backed Yes | 28c | 274.98$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.82 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 23c | 270.61$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.24 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 11c | 239.84$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.57 | 130 | 14.6%19 W · 111 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 12c | 229.99$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.8 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd376…231dbacked Yes | 9c | 222.22$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb353…bd7fbacked Yes | 8c | 221.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.75 | 117 | 4.3%5 W · 112 L | -1.7wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433e…6be1backed Yes | 23c | 217.39$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e1c…3106backed Yes | 24c | 216.89$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.7wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…bda1backed Yes | 13c | 200$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.73 | 145 | 13.8%20 W · 125 L | -8.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff6…4e36backed Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -5.1wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1c3…73fdbacked Yes | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 68 | 32.4%22 W · 46 L | -2.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9068…e0d2backed Yes | 18c | 200$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 160 | 24.4%39 W · 121 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c9…4394backed Yes | 20c | 193.81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.35 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -0.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x289a…f184backed Yes | 11c | 181.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 20cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 8c | 175$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes | 10c | 171.38$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.51 | 212 | 22.2%47 W · 165 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcedd…0dd4backed Yes | 21c | 170.45$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25f2…0822backed Yes | 19c | 156.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.81 | 74 | 13.5%10 W · 64 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x100f…d893backed Yes | 13c | 153.85$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb2b…cadfbacked Yes | 21c | 152.8$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 207 | 23.7%49 W · 158 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7172…b910backed Yes | 16c | 150$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 60 | 16.7%10 W · 50 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9901…5815backed Yes | 11c | 150$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 45 | 31.1%14 W · 31 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 29cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 80c | 149.22$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.84 | 378 | 30.7%116 W · 262 L | -17.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 77c | 143$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.41 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7c09…eea9backed Yes | 16c | 140$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.6 | 64 | 18.8%12 W · 52 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | +32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 11c | 135.59$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.91 | 879 | 17.2%151 W · 728 L | +2.2wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ebb…525fbacked No | 74c | 134.18$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.89 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 70cpaid | -12.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf53a…7970backed Yes | 14c | 128$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.92 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | +2.9wins | +0.19per pick | 21cpaid | +97%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x355f…1847backed Yes | 24c | 126.9$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 20cpaid | -46.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x160d…cefebacked Yes | 13c | 122.5$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 46 | 30.4%14 W · 32 L | +2.1wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2559…460bbacked Yes | 17c | 120$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 264 | 18.6%49 W · 215 L | +8.7wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +6.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.