TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$201,092
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$124,366

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $201,092 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 210 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Tweets
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x590e…e43dbacked Yes15c12,391$1,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,841.9718616.1%30 W · 156 L-4.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-52.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes1c10,000$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.771999%18 W · 181 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick8cpaid+174.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6845…c125backed Yes0c7,617$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.3184616.4%139 W · 707 L+24.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x038b…afc4backed Yes38c6,513$2,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,50033527.8%93 W · 242 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick27cpaid+0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes15c5,686$850 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$850.4663021.7%137 W · 493 L+2.3wins0.00per pick21cpaid-24.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes0c4,804$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.215525.6%31 W · 521 L+15.6wins+0.03per pick3cpaid+42.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes5c3,253$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.151,1908.7%104 W · 1,086 L+31.1wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-0.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x524d…4495backed Yes4c3,031$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.3716122.4%36 W · 125 L+8.4wins+0.05per pick17cpaid+2.5%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xe83c…04cebacked Yes14c2,900$393 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$393.4911932.8%39 W · 80 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-17.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa002…e840backed Yes0c2,850$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.51863.8%7 W · 179 L-0.4wins0.00per pick4cpaid-14.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfa76…897ebacked Yes2c2,800$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.361547.8%12 W · 142 L+2.0wins+0.01per pick6cpaid-30.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes13c2,769$357 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$357.1899410.6%105 W · 889 L-30.0wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-58.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x193a…35c0backed Yes1c2,750$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.75955.3%5 W · 90 L-1.6wins-0.02per pick7cpaid-56.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x732f…201ebacked Yes25c2,634$653 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$652.5639723.2%92 W · 305 L-0.4wins0.00per pick23cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes8c2,605$198 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.5731224.7%77 W · 235 L-0.5wins0.00per pick25cpaid-19.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb5f…1ad5backed Yes28c2,326$649 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$648.64818.8%9 W · 39 L-4.2wins-0.09per pick27cpaid-49.9%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x2434…05eabacked Yes1c2,089$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.314325.6%11 W · 32 L+5.8wins+0.14per pick12cpaid+188.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes30c2,017$595 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$595.374829.2%14 W · 34 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick31cpaid+9.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes26c2,016$516 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$515.6331217.9%56 W · 256 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick19cpaid-22.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes25c1,888$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.9753222.7%121 W · 411 L-19.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-36.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes20c1,805$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$368.912,54513.2%335 W · 2,210 L+4.9wins0.00per pick13cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes19c1,704$319 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$318.8873115.2%111 W · 620 L+11.9wins+0.02per pick14cpaid+7.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes10c1,625$163 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.6114037.1%52 W · 88 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick33cpaid-20.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2eb6…3e31backed No77c1,566$1,198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.811926.9%32 W · 87 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-50.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xac4a…bf1ebacked No65c1,546$1,004 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$541.5640519.8%80 W · 325 L-18.3wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-51.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2154backed No76c1,470$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$359.2734425.6%88 W · 256 L+0.2wins0.00per pick26cpaid-29.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb476…6eacbacked Yes28c1,408$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4003616.7%6 W · 30 L-2.9wins-0.08per pick25cpaid-39.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes10c1,375$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$143.1588210.3%91 W · 791 L-4.0wins0.00per pick11cpaid-49%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes2c1,337$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.872,1603.9%85 W · 2,075 L+5.9wins0.00per pick4cpaid-35.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd68…0261backed Yes12c1,321$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$160.8219731%61 W · 136 L+13.8wins+0.07per pick24cpaid+22%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No70c1,241$874 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$366.9554274.9%406 W · 136 L+34.0wins+0.06per pick69cpaid+3.1%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x511f…cbe1backed No75c1,236$931 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$305.8221959.8%131 W · 88 L+4.2wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+5.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes1c1,211$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121,0608.4%89 W · 971 L+29.0wins+0.03per pick6cpaid-28.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbb5a…1537backed Yes3c1,190$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.4215519.4%30 W · 125 L-0.4wins0.00per pick20cpaid-27.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes9c1,181$104 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.429227.7%81 W · 211 L+7.3wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-12%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7f4a…ff25backed Yes1c1,144$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x984f…ba69backed Yes4c1,091$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.4715817.7%28 W · 130 L+1.7wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf61f…1cf3backed Yes3c1,079$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.812919.4%25 W · 104 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-25.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa623…384fbacked Yes3c1,036$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2742110%42 W · 379 L+1.5wins0.00per pick10cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0800…ceb0backed No78c1,030$800 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.7811430.7%35 W · 79 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-24.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes14c1,007$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.581,04013.7%142 W · 898 L+38.1wins+0.04per pick10cpaid-14.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xde0f…57c1backed Yes2c1,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152166%13 W · 203 L0.0wins0.00per pick6cpaid-39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes17c999.99$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.8712810.9%14 W · 114 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick13cpaid-61.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c83…28d9backed Yes33c880.81$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$290.391225%3 W · 9 L-2.9wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-62.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No73c871.13$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.77371.2%52 W · 21 L-1.5wins-0.02per pick73cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc1f4…2a00backed Yes18c849.52$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.17478.5%4 W · 43 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick14cpaid-35.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x58a5…ec93backed No79c845.7$668 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.353083.3%25 W · 5 L+1.1wins+0.04per pick80cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes10c841.78$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.391,7807.4%132 W · 1,648 L-23.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-66.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes24c810.32$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$192.7746137.5%173 W · 288 L+4.0wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-11.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x539e…3ccebacked Yes5c779.95$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.4112514.4%18 W · 107 L+0.1wins0.00per pick14cpaid-39.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbc13…5578backed Yes13c768.65$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.2528812.8%37 W · 251 L+5.8wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0619…d801backed Yes2c750.83$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.2723019.1%44 W · 186 L+3.4wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x215a…254cbacked No59c731.7$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30027024.4%66 W · 204 L+3.5wins+0.01per pick23cpaid+31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x13d8…06c4backed Yes5c700$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353912.8%5 W · 34 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick8cpaid-0.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0368…c5febacked Yes38c698.23$268 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$267.6830%0 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe343…23fdbacked Yes15c666.66$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10115435.1%54 W · 100 L+6.7wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x81d4…3c9fbacked Yes26c653.84$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1702114.3%3 W · 18 L-3.4wins-0.16per pick31cpaid-44%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes32c630.52$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20024423.8%58 W · 186 L-7.1wins-0.03per pick27cpaid-27.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc7fb…8eb0backed Yes24c600$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.23215.6%5 W · 27 L-3.6wins-0.11per pick27cpaid-51.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf67b…1ac0backed Yes32c585.39$188 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.893321.2%7 W · 26 L-2.3wins-0.07per pick28cpaid-37.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x508d…791abacked No74c578.32$426 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$152.037458.1%43 W · 31 L+3.9wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+5.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee50…11e6backed Yes2c554.52$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.266420.3%13 W · 51 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick21cpaid-8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes6c540$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30.9787618.4%161 W · 715 L+9.5wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-24.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2ca…58adbacked Yes20c536.41$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.91822.2%4 W · 14 L-0.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-38.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b30…068abacked Yes13c516.3$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6432917%56 W · 273 L+13.7wins+0.04per pick13cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes2c513.71$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6933231%103 W · 229 L+10.3wins+0.03per pick28cpaid-14.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes13c513$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.111,03611.1%115 W · 921 L+4.8wins0.00per pick11cpaid-36.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xb26f…aa5fbacked Yes35c505.17$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1774719.1%9 W · 38 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-1.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x00dc…d521backed Yes26c500$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1304330.2%13 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick30cpaid+12.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes20c500$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10050913.8%70 W · 439 L+5.6wins+0.01per pick13cpaid-9.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf6ce…f073backed No79c499.97$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$104.991782.4%14 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick72cpaid+21.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No67c499.97$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.9924672.8%179 W · 67 L+15.5wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+5.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xa713…4485backed Yes12c479.99$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.834215.8%54 W · 288 L+20.9wins+0.06per pick10cpaid+32%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes8c457.96$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.2121222.2%47 W · 165 L-2.3wins-0.01per pick23cpaid-18.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe5c5…4c75backed Yes25c452$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.10per pick23cpaid-66.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8d88…1e28backed No68c416.04$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.9213014.6%19 W · 111 L+1.4wins+0.01per pick14cpaid-50.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed No68c411.33$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$133.1120857.2%119 W · 89 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid-1.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes5c399.99$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.232016.6%53 W · 267 L-5.1wins-0.02per pick18cpaid-15.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x29e1…29f8backed Yes25c380.54$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.294112.2%5 W · 36 L-2.5wins-0.06per pick18cpaid+1.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd23f…94a1backed No78c355.3$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.2510556.2%59 W · 46 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf512…0985backed Yes16c341.61$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.6712117.4%21 W · 100 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick18cpaid-24.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe207…9f79backed Yes37c324.03$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.891936.8%7 W · 12 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick38cpaid-17.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4cd7…5c92backed Yes31c322.58$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003828.9%11 W · 27 L-1.9wins-0.05per pick34cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6798…76a2backed Yes17c318.27$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52.91118.2%2 W · 9 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick17cpaid-5.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7ee9…7d37backed Yes31c317.56$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010924.8%27 W · 82 L+2.0wins+0.02per pick23cpaid+38.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc3fc…484abacked Yes20c312.72$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.454957.1%28 W · 21 L+4.3wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+40.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5364…c64dbacked No64c300$192 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10815164.9%98 W · 53 L+10.2wins+0.07per pick58cpaid+13.2%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No63c299.97$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.9918676.9%143 W · 43 L+11.9wins+0.06per pick70cpaid+6.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1aed…5925backed Yes31c297.9$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.511721.4%25 W · 92 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick22cpaid-5.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf257…1950backed No74c295.63$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.7142424.5%104 W · 320 L-13.9wins-0.03per pick28cpaid-25.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Yes35c291.51$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.4624524.9%61 W · 184 L-13.8wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-45%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No71c290$204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.5218949.2%93 W · 96 L-2.0wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-13.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x514b…6931backed No68c267.34$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.8710441.3%43 W · 61 L+9.5wins+0.09per pick32cpaid+14.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x70f8…513dbacked Yes32c260$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.717417.6%13 W · 61 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick19cpaid+23.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x433e…6be1backed Yes32c253.84$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$809024.4%22 W · 68 L-0.7wins-0.01per pick25cpaid+14.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9d5b…02c4backed Yes28c240.47$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+40.9%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa54c…8dc0backed Yes25c236.55$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.141631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick30cpaid-7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x942e…be27backed No78c230$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.3115354.9%84 W · 69 L-1.8wins-0.01per pick56cpaid-3.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5c04…6587backed Yes26c205.98$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5347032.6%153 W · 317 L+13.5wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-6.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x090a…0fa6backed No73c204.1$148 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.7911558.3%67 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.01per pick57cpaid-1.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.