Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3143454e474c199ec69abacc2a962885b1b82f9201837624ab0883be9e15436d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $201,092
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $124,366
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $201,092 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 210 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x590e…e43dbacked Yes | 15c | 12,391$1,842 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,841.97 | 186 | 16.1%30 W · 156 L | -4.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes | 1c | 10,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.77 | 199 | 9%18 W · 181 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +174.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 0c | 7,617$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.31 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x038b…afc4backed Yes | 38c | 6,513$2,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,500 | 335 | 27.8%93 W · 242 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 27cpaid | +0.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes | 15c | 5,686$850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$850.46 | 630 | 21.7%137 W · 493 L | +2.3wins | 0.00per pick | 21cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 0c | 4,804$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.21 | 552 | 5.6%31 W · 521 L | +15.6wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 5c | 3,253$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.15 | 1,190 | 8.7%104 W · 1,086 L | +31.1wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x524d…4495backed Yes | 4c | 3,031$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.37 | 161 | 22.4%36 W · 125 L | +8.4wins | +0.05per pick | 17cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83c…04cebacked Yes | 14c | 2,900$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.49 | 119 | 32.8%39 W · 80 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -17.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa002…e840backed Yes | 0c | 2,850$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 186 | 3.8%7 W · 179 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa76…897ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,800$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.36 | 154 | 7.8%12 W · 142 L | +2.0wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes | 13c | 2,769$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.18 | 994 | 10.6%105 W · 889 L | -30.0wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…35c0backed Yes | 1c | 2,750$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.75 | 95 | 5.3%5 W · 90 L | -1.6wins | -0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x732f…201ebacked Yes | 25c | 2,634$653 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$652.56 | 397 | 23.2%92 W · 305 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2d7…e3b7backed Yes | 8c | 2,605$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.57 | 312 | 24.7%77 W · 235 L | -0.5wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -19.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb5f…1ad5backed Yes | 28c | 2,326$649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$648.6 | 48 | 18.8%9 W · 39 L | -4.2wins | -0.09per pick | 27cpaid | -49.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2434…05eabacked Yes | 1c | 2,089$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.31 | 43 | 25.6%11 W · 32 L | +5.8wins | +0.14per pick | 12cpaid | +188.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfa02…f3d3backed Yes | 30c | 2,017$595 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$595.37 | 48 | 29.2%14 W · 34 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ceb…2bdfbacked Yes | 26c | 2,016$516 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$515.63 | 312 | 17.9%56 W · 256 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes | 25c | 1,888$478 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$477.97 | 532 | 22.7%121 W · 411 L | -19.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 20c | 1,805$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.91 | 2,545 | 13.2%335 W · 2,210 L | +4.9wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 19c | 1,704$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.88 | 731 | 15.2%111 W · 620 L | +11.9wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0cc…f09bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,625$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.61 | 140 | 37.1%52 W · 88 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -20.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…3e31backed No | 77c | 1,566$1,198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$367.8 | 119 | 26.9%32 W · 87 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -50.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 65c | 1,546$1,004 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$541.56 | 405 | 19.8%80 W · 325 L | -18.3wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcd0f…2154backed No | 76c | 1,470$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$359.27 | 344 | 25.6%88 W · 256 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb476…6eacbacked Yes | 28c | 1,408$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 36 | 16.7%6 W · 30 L | -2.9wins | -0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -39.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 10c | 1,375$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.15 | 882 | 10.3%91 W · 791 L | -4.0wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 1,337$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.87 | 2,160 | 3.9%85 W · 2,075 L | +5.9wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd68…0261backed Yes | 12c | 1,321$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.82 | 197 | 31%61 W · 136 L | +13.8wins | +0.07per pick | 24cpaid | +22%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x97ff…d095backed No | 70c | 1,241$874 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.95 | 542 | 74.9%406 W · 136 L | +34.0wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +3.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 75c | 1,236$931 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$305.82 | 219 | 59.8%131 W · 88 L | +4.2wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 1c | 1,211$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1,060 | 8.4%89 W · 971 L | +29.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb5a…1537backed Yes | 3c | 1,190$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.42 | 155 | 19.4%30 W · 125 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | -27.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0ee7…6fa6backed Yes | 9c | 1,181$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104.4 | 292 | 27.7%81 W · 211 L | +7.3wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -12%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7f4a…ff25backed Yes | 1c | 1,144$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x984f…ba69backed Yes | 4c | 1,091$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.47 | 158 | 17.7%28 W · 130 L | +1.7wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf61f…1cf3backed Yes | 3c | 1,079$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.8 | 129 | 19.4%25 W · 104 L | +1.5wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa623…384fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,036$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 421 | 10%42 W · 379 L | +1.5wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0800…ceb0backed No | 78c | 1,030$800 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$229.78 | 114 | 30.7%35 W · 79 L | -3.2wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe130…4006backed Yes | 14c | 1,007$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.58 | 1,040 | 13.7%142 W · 898 L | +38.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xde0f…57c1backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 216 | 6%13 W · 203 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 6cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd07…6bb7backed Yes | 17c | 999.99$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.87 | 128 | 10.9%14 W · 114 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 13cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7c83…28d9backed Yes | 33c | 880.81$290 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$290.39 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -62.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No | 73c | 871.13$639 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$231.7 | 73 | 71.2%52 W · 21 L | -1.5wins | -0.02per pick | 73cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc1f4…2a00backed Yes | 18c | 849.52$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.17 | 47 | 8.5%4 W · 43 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -35.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58a5…ec93backed No | 79c | 845.7$668 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.35 | 30 | 83.3%25 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 80cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 10c | 841.78$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.39 | 1,780 | 7.4%132 W · 1,648 L | -23.1wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d7…c453backed Yes | 24c | 810.32$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.77 | 461 | 37.5%173 W · 288 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x539e…3ccebacked Yes | 5c | 779.95$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.41 | 125 | 14.4%18 W · 107 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -39.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5578backed Yes | 13c | 768.65$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.25 | 288 | 12.8%37 W · 251 L | +5.8wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0619…d801backed Yes | 2c | 750.83$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.27 | 230 | 19.1%44 W · 186 L | +3.4wins | +0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x215a…254cbacked No | 59c | 731.7$432 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300 | 270 | 24.4%66 W · 204 L | +3.5wins | +0.01per pick | 23cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x13d8…06c4backed Yes | 5c | 700$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0368…c5febacked Yes | 38c | 698.23$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe343…23fdbacked Yes | 15c | 666.66$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 154 | 35.1%54 W · 100 L | +6.7wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x81d4…3c9fbacked Yes | 26c | 653.84$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170 | 21 | 14.3%3 W · 18 L | -3.4wins | -0.16per pick | 31cpaid | -44%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes | 32c | 630.52$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 244 | 23.8%58 W · 186 L | -7.1wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7fb…8eb0backed Yes | 24c | 600$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145.2 | 32 | 15.6%5 W · 27 L | -3.6wins | -0.11per pick | 27cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf67b…1ac0backed Yes | 32c | 585.39$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.89 | 33 | 21.2%7 W · 26 L | -2.3wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x508d…791abacked No | 74c | 578.32$426 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$152.03 | 74 | 58.1%43 W · 31 L | +3.9wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xee50…11e6backed Yes | 2c | 554.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.26 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 6c | 540$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.97 | 876 | 18.4%161 W · 715 L | +9.5wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2ca…58adbacked Yes | 20c | 536.41$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.9 | 18 | 22.2%4 W · 14 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b30…068abacked Yes | 13c | 516.3$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.64 | 329 | 17%56 W · 273 L | +13.7wins | +0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f55…d4b5backed Yes | 2c | 513.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.69 | 332 | 31%103 W · 229 L | +10.3wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x071d…07efbacked Yes | 13c | 513$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.11 | 1,036 | 11.1%115 W · 921 L | +4.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb26f…aa5fbacked Yes | 35c | 505.17$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177 | 47 | 19.1%9 W · 38 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 20cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x00dc…d521backed Yes | 26c | 500$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes | 20c | 500$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 509 | 13.8%70 W · 439 L | +5.6wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6ce…f073backed No | 79c | 499.97$395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.99 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 72cpaid | +21.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x36e7…0b6bbacked No | 67c | 499.97$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$166.99 | 246 | 72.8%179 W · 67 L | +15.5wins | +0.06per pick | 66cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa713…4485backed Yes | 12c | 479.99$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.8 | 342 | 15.8%54 W · 288 L | +20.9wins | +0.06per pick | 10cpaid | +32%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x98d6…51dcbacked Yes | 8c | 457.96$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.21 | 212 | 22.2%47 W · 165 L | -2.3wins | -0.01per pick | 23cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5c5…4c75backed Yes | 25c | 452$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed No | 68c | 416.04$282 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.92 | 130 | 14.6%19 W · 111 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd218…b5c9backed No | 68c | 411.33$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.11 | 208 | 57.2%119 W · 89 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes | 5c | 399.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 320 | 16.6%53 W · 267 L | -5.1wins | -0.02per pick | 18cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29e1…29f8backed Yes | 25c | 380.54$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.29 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -2.5wins | -0.06per pick | 18cpaid | +1.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd23f…94a1backed No | 78c | 355.3$276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$79.25 | 105 | 56.2%59 W · 46 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf512…0985backed Yes | 16c | 341.61$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.67 | 121 | 17.4%21 W · 100 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 18cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe207…9f79backed Yes | 37c | 324.03$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.89 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4cd7…5c92backed Yes | 31c | 322.58$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 38 | 28.9%11 W · 27 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6798…76a2backed Yes | 17c | 318.27$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.9 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee9…7d37backed Yes | 31c | 317.56$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 109 | 24.8%27 W · 82 L | +2.0wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +38.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3fc…484abacked Yes | 20c | 312.72$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.45 | 49 | 57.1%28 W · 21 L | +4.3wins | +0.09per pick | 48cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5364…c64dbacked No | 64c | 300$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 151 | 64.9%98 W · 53 L | +10.2wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7354…430fbacked No | 63c | 299.97$190 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$109.99 | 186 | 76.9%143 W · 43 L | +11.9wins | +0.06per pick | 70cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1aed…5925backed Yes | 31c | 297.9$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.5 | 117 | 21.4%25 W · 92 L | -1.2wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf257…1950backed No | 74c | 295.63$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.71 | 424 | 24.5%104 W · 320 L | -13.9wins | -0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 35c | 291.51$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.46 | 245 | 24.9%61 W · 184 L | -13.8wins | -0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -45%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb0c8…fe7fbacked No | 71c | 290$204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.52 | 189 | 49.2%93 W · 96 L | -2.0wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -13.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x514b…6931backed No | 68c | 267.34$181 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$85.87 | 104 | 41.3%43 W · 61 L | +9.5wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +14.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x70f8…513dbacked Yes | 32c | 260$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.71 | 74 | 17.6%13 W · 61 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 19cpaid | +23.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x433e…6be1backed Yes | 32c | 253.84$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 90 | 24.4%22 W · 68 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d5b…02c4backed Yes | 28c | 240.47$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa54c…8dc0backed Yes | 25c | 236.55$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.14 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 78c | 230$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 153 | 54.9%84 W · 69 L | -1.8wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c04…6587backed Yes | 26c | 205.98$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53 | 470 | 32.6%153 W · 317 L | +13.5wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x090a…0fa6backed No | 73c | 204.1$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.79 | 115 | 58.3%67 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.01per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.