Tweets · resolved market
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x50bf4abe860d24275f4e9bbb098186cafbee8267547468e0d62bac962919651e
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $260,767
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $196,506
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $260,767 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Tweets | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes | 0c | 21,520$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 553 | 5.6%31 W · 522 L | +15.5wins | +0.03per pick | 3cpaid | +41.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ea8…ffcfbacked Yes | 0c | 15,897$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.86 | 200 | 9%18 W · 182 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 8cpaid | +173%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x832d…6ec5backed Yes | 0c | 7,076$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.95 | 117 | 7.7%9 W · 108 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -66.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6be9…3493backed Yes | 0c | 7,053$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.04 | 1,067 | 8.3%89 W · 978 L | +28.9wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -28.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…4375backed Yes | 1c | 6,325$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.44 | 254 | 13.4%34 W · 220 L | -0.6wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7413…4b09backed Yes | 1c | 6,027$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.29 | 798 | 11.3%90 W · 708 L | +30.0wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5099…9554backed Yes | 0c | 5,941$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.43 | 14 | 7.1%1 W · 13 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2179…bedbbacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 78 | 0%0 W · 78 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xef0d…8733backed Yes | 1c | 4,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 571 | 8.2%47 W · 524 L | +1.2wins | 0.00per pick | 8cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x146d…17c7backed Yes | 0c | 3,989$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.72 | 1,196 | 8.7%104 W · 1,092 L | +31.0wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -1.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa002…e840backed Yes | 0c | 3,422$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 186 | 3.8%7 W · 179 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 4cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59a1…a8d1backed Yes | 1c | 2,857$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.68 | 416 | 10.6%44 W · 372 L | -0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa49b…7054backed Yes | 2c | 2,752$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.76 | 2,552 | 13.1%335 W · 2,217 L | +4.3wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7db5…cf18backed Yes | 1c | 2,619$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.91 | 886 | 10.3%91 W · 795 L | -4.2wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9d0…542cbacked Yes | 0c | 2,345$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.42 | 67 | 4.5%3 W · 64 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -77.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa50…3ed5backed Yes | 1c | 2,166$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.7 | 653 | 11%72 W · 581 L | +10.8wins | +0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -11%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes | 2c | 2,144$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37 | 384 | 4.7%18 W · 366 L | +4.0wins | +0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2cf3…ae6fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,000$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 111 | 6.3%7 W · 104 L | +2.6wins | +0.02per pick | 4cpaid | +53.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6845…c125backed Yes | 3c | 1,397$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.88 | 846 | 16.4%139 W · 707 L | +24.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3256…830cbacked Yes | 1c | 1,260$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.64 | 782 | 8.7%68 W · 714 L | -1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe089…ad3abacked Yes | 2c | 1,193$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 183 | 4.4%8 W · 175 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +235.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x666a…4bf0backed Yes | 2c | 1,119$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.86 | 181 | 7.7%14 W · 167 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -15.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac5f…d808backed Yes | 1c | 1,001$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 46 | 23.9%11 W · 35 L | +0.9wins | +0.02per pick | 22cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35e0…44e0backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 46 | 15.2%7 W · 39 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 15cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5ced…2c7ebacked Yes | 5c | 999.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 96 | 14.6%14 W · 82 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7c0…d656backed Yes | 5c | 977.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.55 | 880 | 17.3%152 W · 728 L | +2.4wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -32.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x580f…e755backed Yes | 1c | 898.99$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.79 | 55 | 18.2%10 W · 45 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 18cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13d8…06c4backed Yes | 4c | 699.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 39 | 12.8%5 W · 34 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 8cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbc13…5578backed Yes | 2c | 645.06$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 289 | 12.8%37 W · 252 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9696…0861backed Yes | 6c | 631.05$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.61 | 880 | 18.6%164 W · 716 L | +10.1wins | +0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x849c…4009backed Yes | 3c | 593.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.16 | 1,782 | 7.4%132 W · 1,650 L | -23.2wins | -0.01per pick | 9cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e0f…c18cbacked Yes | 2c | 571.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 101 | 5%5 W · 96 L | -3.0wins | -0.03per pick | 8cpaid | -67.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2eb6…3e31backed Yes | 2c | 571.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.43 | 122 | 27%33 W · 89 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x306d…7a38backed Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.2 | 580 | 11.4%66 W · 514 L | +19.7wins | +0.03per pick | 8cpaid | +21.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x67ef…990abacked Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 732 | 15.2%111 W · 621 L | +11.7wins | +0.02per pick | 14cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d88…1e28backed Yes | 3c | 369.04$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 130 | 14.6%19 W · 111 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 14cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 18 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?this page
- Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?Yes won
- Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 500+ tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
- Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.