Token Launches · resolved market
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x5b62c742d5d16577acd70c09e07f3b3e97dd0a51559bc7b1582eb425fefc8b83
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $777,176
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $777,176 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 61 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd498…80aebacked No | 0c | 158,968$169 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.97 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…662dbacked No | 0c | 150,035$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.49 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x042a…b153backed No | 0c | 100,580$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x409f…543abacked No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7371…cadebacked No | 0c | 14,937$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.3wins | +0.04per pick | 53cpaid | 0%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca0…2aacbacked No | 3c | 13,219$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd8…a74abacked No | 1c | 10,000$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 75 | 14.7%11 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked No | 0c | 9,426$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.66 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked No | 1c | 5,882$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.36 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | -20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 4,131$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.72 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbbaf…2833backed No | 6c | 3,769$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$224 | 25 | 12%3 W · 22 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 1c | 3,183$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.18 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 2c | 2,845$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.79 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x26d1…05eebacked No | 7c | 2,575$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.64 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +2.0wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +108.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…99e7backed No | 1c | 2,550$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.65 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1b04…97d0backed No | 5c | 2,214$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d62…0a41backed No | 2c | 2,196$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.95 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 2c | 1,879$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.42 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked No | 1c | 1,790$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.17 | 145 | 48.3%70 W · 75 L | +5.8wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbf5e…612abacked No | 7c | 1,573$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.65 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -33.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbce4…60e7backed No | 6c | 1,570$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe005…14fdbacked No | 1c | 1,529$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.76 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87e3…d0debacked No | 1c | 1,500$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb6c3…b94dbacked No | 1c | 1,361$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed No | 1c | 1,309$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.36 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -90%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf29e…841dbacked No | 1c | 1,160$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.08 | 32 | 25%8 W · 24 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84c0…52a2backed No | 2c | 1,152$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.85 | 36 | 5.6%2 W · 34 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 2c | 1,135$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.04 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa954…1189backed No | 2c | 1,037$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 2c | 1,030$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.89 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc694…1171backed No | 2c | 1,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 71 | 23.9%17 W · 54 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 20cpaid | +17.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e55…e3e2backed No | 4c | 999.99$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -41.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 1c | 976.25$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xceba…bcdebacked No | 2c | 936.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x79d6…d2e2backed No | 2c | 571.26$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.02 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 2c | 568.63$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.89 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6d03…7ebebacked No | 2c | 492.79$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 7c | 429.16$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.84 | 76 | 21.1%16 W · 60 L | -1.0wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -46.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe267…86e4backed No | 7c | 423.27$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7509…1cd2backed No | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 43 | 32.6%14 W · 29 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | +17.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed No | 5c | 353$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.95 | 47 | 42.6%20 W · 27 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 42cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f35…d4efbacked No | 3c | 343.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 8c | 331.11$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.56 | 119 | 0.8%1 W · 118 L | -4.7wins | -0.04per pick | 5cpaid | -85.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x712f…20e9backed No | 4c | 325.13$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe11d…d935backed No | 3c | 320.05$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 5c | 313.69$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.46 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x41f3…4415backed No | 4c | 305.75$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0cc3…6863backed No | 4c | 293.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xce2f…d648backed No | 5c | 290$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.5 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2372…0292backed No | 4c | 287.14$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb55a…2290backed No | 4c | 274.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24cf…9be6backed No | 6c | 260.72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb178…706bbacked No | 4c | 256.73$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 7c | 255.43$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 110 | 7.3%8 W · 102 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44aa…d1d5backed No | 6c | 250.68$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.3 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -3.0wins | -0.10per pick | 45cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x5c24…9a7ebacked No | 27c | 223.87$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.59 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x92e5…efeebacked No | 8c | 222$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.87 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.34per pick | 41cpaid | +58.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 19c | 200.72$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.45 | 357 | 12.9%46 W · 311 L | -29.9wins | -0.08per pick | 21cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked No | 9c | 174$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.66 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.06per pick | 50cpaid | -29.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b4…3c5abacked Yes | 80c | 122.5$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.98 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | +168.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a85…8740backed Yes | 80c | 84.76$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.11 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026?this page
- Will Backpack launch a token by December 31?No won
- Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.