Token Launches · resolved market
Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xeee99a3630d6b21e0e7e8fa39dd5d4b135f18912b81670296ad4781c220b3152
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $691,535
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $691,535 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 566 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 28,430$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.75 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a06…2613backed No | 0c | 23,600$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xad88…662dbacked No | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 2c | 13,296$286 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$285.55 | 57 | 3.5%2 W · 55 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked No | 2c | 11,864$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.65 | 51 | 11.8%6 W · 45 L | +3.4wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | -20%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3107…a26fbacked No | 1c | 11,847$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.48 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23cd…ea1bbacked No | 32c | 11,253$3,592 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,591.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7791…af80backed No | 30c | 10,068$3,020 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,020.43 | 30 | 36.7%11 W · 19 L | +1.8wins | +0.06per pick | 31cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x97eb…9fbebacked No | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 11cpaid | -73.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5cc6…f0f8backed No | 2c | 8,509$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9034…f7dfbacked No | 33c | 7,437$2,421 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,421.02 | 45 | 20%9 W · 36 L | -2.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…b6c6backed Yes | 67c | 6,267$4,204 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,063.07 | 39 | 33.3%13 W · 26 L | -4.5wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xedca…b3afbacked No | 3c | 6,000$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9963…1674backed Yes | 75c | 5,252$3,913 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,338.72 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.9wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23e…1461backed No | 1c | 5,184$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.47 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…a77abacked No | 20c | 5,124$1,014 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,013.68 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a61…af24backed No | 8c | 5,121$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390.27 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | +1.0wins | +0.03per pick | 19cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa33a…4114backed No | 30c | 4,989$1,481 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,481.2 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | -56.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed No | 1c | 4,314$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.34 | 166 | 2.4%4 W · 162 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5036…3aadbacked Yes | 78c | 4,219$3,276 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.07 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.21per pick | 71cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 1c | 3,986$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.37 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9de1…160ebacked Yes | 75c | 3,978$3,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$978.25 | 32 | 71.9%23 W · 9 L | +5.6wins | +0.17per pick | 54cpaid | +21.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x35ea…517fbacked No | 1c | 3,896$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf032…8e71backed No | 2c | 3,826$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7789…a2cebacked No | 14c | 3,531$501 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$501.08 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 26cpaid | +11.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff2…2be4backed No | 1c | 3,500$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 17 | 0%0 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd96b…46dfbacked Yes | 74c | 3,462$2,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$882.93 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 5c | 3,345$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$154.14 | 233 | 3.4%8 W · 225 L | -3.3wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -64.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…03c5backed Yes | 42c | 3,227$1,371 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,856.42 | 76 | 57.9%44 W · 32 L | +8.9wins | +0.12per pick | 46cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xde26…2de2backed No | 25c | 3,221$808 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$807.97 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbdb7…4ef3backed Yes | 60c | 3,181$1,911 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,269.59 | 26 | 34.6%9 W · 17 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked No | 2c | 3,107$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.25 | 76 | 6.6%5 W · 71 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbe88…d285backed Yes | 71c | 3,081$2,185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$896.39 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 56cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xaed9…36bcbacked Yes | 70c | 2,883$2,018 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$864.98 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f13…daaebacked No | 24c | 2,848$688 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$687.61 | 19 | 5.3%1 W · 18 L | -2.2wins | -0.11per pick | 17cpaid | -91.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3b46…233ebacked No | 25c | 2,675$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5571…f0a1backed No | 4c | 2,650$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.64 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 2,604$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.2 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd780…e5bdbacked No | 1c | 2,559$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a04…f447backed No | 4c | 2,518$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5464…af99backed No | 4c | 2,500$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.5 | 32 | 37.5%12 W · 20 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e66…41e7backed No | 1c | 2,494$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.84 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 1cpaid | +146.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xda0d…4ba9backed No | 21c | 2,429$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8854…5882backed No | 24c | 2,277$553 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$553.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +47.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc135…21b0backed No | 19c | 2,202$427 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$426.63 | 48 | 43.8%21 W · 27 L | +8.0wins | +0.17per pick | 27cpaid | +64.4%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x449a…68a4backed Yes | 68c | 2,177$1,486 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$691.35 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 49cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0bd8…a74abacked No | 4c | 2,150$81 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.01 | 75 | 14.7%11 W · 64 L | -2.0wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x748a…3c56backed No | 2c | 2,150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.85 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.20per pick | 31cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf1a4…1e57backed No | 3c | 2,064$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45b2…cbc1backed No | 11c | 2,000$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 20 | 20%4 W · 16 L | +1.0wins | +0.05per pick | 15cpaid | +47.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb807…99cbbacked No | 4c | 2,000$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73 | 103 | 20.4%21 W · 82 L | -2.4wins | -0.02per pick | 23cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 16c | 1,990$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$324.76 | 237 | 7.2%17 W · 220 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f31…80a1backed No | 4c | 1,945$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f7…4899backed Yes | 79c | 1,940$1,538 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.39 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 63cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3290…f4bdbacked No | 21c | 1,867$396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$396.19 | 28 | 21.4%6 W · 22 L | +2.2wins | +0.08per pick | 14cpaid | +63.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x822e…5febbacked No | 29c | 1,818$521 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$521.23 | 63 | 44.4%28 W · 35 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 43cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb519…addfbacked Yes | 71c | 1,780$1,272 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$508.16 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +5.5wins | +0.25per pick | 43cpaid | +147.4%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x5b63…11a4backed No | 8c | 1,748$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.42 | 80 | 32.5%26 W · 54 L | +1.5wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe92d…e158backed No | 9c | 1,745$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.35per pick | 46cpaid | -85.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2048…f572backed Yes | 63c | 1,638$1,038 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$599.83 | 90 | 46.7%42 W · 48 L | -1.8wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 41c | 1,585$642 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$943.28 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x699c…50fdbacked Yes | 76c | 1,564$1,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$376.65 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x84ed…a7c7backed No | 18c | 1,554$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.71 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +4.2wins | +0.24per pick | 46cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed No | 2c | 1,528$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.9 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -1.8wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1342…98bbbacked No | 13c | 1,498$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4b01…95a9backed No | 1c | 1,460$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 20 | 5%1 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -90%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…0268backed Yes | 56c | 1,460$818 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$642.1 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe79c…c715backed No | 36c | 1,377$493 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492.8 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 31c | 1,359$420 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$420.36 | 179 | 48%86 W · 93 L | +3.6wins | +0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2a2a…6c58backed No | 6c | 1,350$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0bf7…43a2backed No | 1c | 1,329$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x744c…e37fbacked No | 38c | 1,305$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 13 | 61.5%8 W · 5 L | +1.6wins | +0.13per pick | 49cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked No | 2c | 1,301$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 40 | 0%0 W · 40 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ca0…2aacbacked No | 36c | 1,300$471 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$471.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 27cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e36…3e78backed Yes | 70c | 1,300$910 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 67cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 5c | 1,295$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.72 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff70…fc79backed No | 6c | 1,288$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.71 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x331b…3169backed No | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f26…1f12backed No | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked No | 19c | 1,232$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$234.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 3c | 1,211$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.71 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 2c | 1,209$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.01 | 35 | 11.4%4 W · 31 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 8cpaid | +50%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8ab1…5ae4backed No | 25c | 1,201$303 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$302.6 | 29 | 27.6%8 W · 21 L | +3.4wins | +0.12per pick | 16cpaid | +62.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x714f…66d5backed No | 5c | 1,200$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.98 | 19 | 10.5%2 W · 17 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 19cpaid | -60%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x62f5…4b71backed No | 4c | 1,198$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.3 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae63…4391backed No | 10c | 1,191$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8232…5992backed No | 42c | 1,184$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 47cpaid | +10%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd744…526fbacked No | 39c | 1,174$458 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.81 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.21per pick | 24cpaid | +223.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0105…4f29backed No | 46c | 1,153$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$531.75 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -24.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe001…2fa6backed No | 18c | 1,091$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd2ba…b283backed No | 5c | 1,080$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.26 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 51cpaid | -39.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed Yes | 60c | 1,071$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$426.04 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x989c…69f4backed No | 38c | 1,055$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.79 | 75 | 46.7%35 W · 40 L | +1.7wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -21.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb64…3ffebacked Yes | 38c | 1,048$396 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$652.7 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd6a4…aa82backed Yes | 65c | 1,040$671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.15per pick | 25cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5dd9…0f53backed No | 9c | 1,030$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b05…6180backed Yes | 68c | 1,017$694 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$322.88 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.9wins | +0.05per pick | 39cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3a5…3249backed No | 6c | 1,004$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 30cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d20…6073backed No | 25c | 1,000$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.53 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -9.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…99e7backed No | 15c | 1,000$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 42 | 19%8 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.07per pick | 26cpaid | -4.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?this page
- Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026?Yes won
- Will Backpack launch a token by December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.