TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Will Backpack launch a token by March 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$691,535

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $691,535 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 566 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xee67…67a6backed No1c28,430$249 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$248.752061.9%4 W · 202 L+1.0wins0.00per pick1cpaid+62.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7a06…2613backed No0c23,600$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad88…662dbacked No0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15210%0 W · 21 L-0.7wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed No2c13,296$286 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$285.55573.5%2 W · 55 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-74.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked No2c11,864$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.655111.8%6 W · 45 L+3.4wins+0.07per pick5cpaid-20%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3107…a26fbacked No1c11,847$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.4880%0 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23cd…ea1bbacked No32c11,253$3,592 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,591.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-40.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7791…af80backed No30c10,068$3,020 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,020.433036.7%11 W · 19 L+1.8wins+0.06per pick31cpaid-20.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x97eb…9fbebacked No0c10,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10616.7%1 W · 5 L+0.3wins+0.06per pick11cpaid-73.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5cc6…f0f8backed No2c8,509$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20130%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9034…f7dfbacked No33c7,437$2,421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,421.024520%9 W · 36 L-2.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-37.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfd72…b6c6backed Yes67c6,267$4,204 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,063.073933.3%13 W · 26 L-4.5wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-38.9%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xedca…b3afbacked No3c6,000$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9963…1674backed Yes75c5,252$3,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,338.723100%3 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc23e…1461backed No1c5,184$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.47933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-45.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5f45…a77abacked No20c5,124$1,014 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,013.684847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-4.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No8c5,121$390 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$390.273721.6%8 W · 29 L+1.0wins+0.03per pick19cpaid+128.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa33a…4114backed No30c4,989$1,481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,481.2520%1 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick29cpaid-56.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed No1c4,314$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.341662.4%4 W · 162 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick2cpaid-14.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5036…3aadbacked Yes78c4,219$3,276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.07450%2 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.21per pick71cpaid-34.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed No1c3,986$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.373283%10 W · 318 L-3.0wins-0.01per pick4cpaid-45.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9de1…160ebacked Yes75c3,978$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$978.253271.9%23 W · 9 L+5.6wins+0.17per pick54cpaid+21.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x35ea…517fbacked No1c3,896$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.0630%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf032…8e71backed No2c3,826$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7789…a2cebacked No14c3,531$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.081827.8%5 W · 13 L+0.4wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+11.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ff2…2be4backed No1c3,500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35170%0 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xd96b…46dfbacked Yes74c3,462$2,579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$882.932133.3%7 W · 14 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-15.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8765…ed81backed No5c3,345$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.142333.4%8 W · 225 L-3.3wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-64.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x15ce…03c5backed Yes42c3,227$1,371 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,856.427657.9%44 W · 32 L+8.9wins+0.12per pick46cpaid+20.5%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xde26…2de2backed No25c3,221$808 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$807.971741.2%7 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick41cpaid-16.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbdb7…4ef3backed Yes60c3,181$1,911 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,269.592634.6%9 W · 17 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick41cpaid-40.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x70b6…aa2fbacked No2c3,107$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.25766.6%5 W · 71 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe88…d285backed Yes71c3,081$2,185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$896.391764.7%11 W · 6 L+1.5wins+0.09per pick56cpaid+3.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xaed9…36bcbacked Yes70c2,883$2,018 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$864.98250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-28.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f13…daaebacked No24c2,848$688 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$687.61195.3%1 W · 18 L-2.2wins-0.11per pick17cpaid-91.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x3b46…233ebacked No25c2,675$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.4710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5571…f0a1backed No4c2,650$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.64333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick25cpaid-51.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed No6c2,604$161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$161.27663.3%25 W · 741 L-23.5wins-0.03per pick6cpaid-75.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd780…e5bdbacked No1c2,559$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.5910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3a04…f447backed No4c2,518$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5464…af99backed No4c2,500$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.53237.5%12 W · 20 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-16.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e66…41e7backed No1c2,494$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.84214.8%1 W · 20 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick1cpaid+146.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xda0d…4ba9backed No21c2,429$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$499.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8854…5882backed No24c2,277$553 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$553.26333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick36cpaid+47.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc135…21b0backed No19c2,202$427 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$426.634843.8%21 W · 27 L+8.0wins+0.17per pick27cpaid+64.4%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x449a…68a4backed Yes68c2,177$1,486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$691.351136.4%4 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick49cpaid-48.2%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0bd8…a74abacked No4c2,150$81 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.017514.7%11 W · 64 L-2.0wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-26.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x748a…3c56backed No2c2,150$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.85911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick31cpaid-83.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1a4…1e57backed No3c2,064$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$66.0610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x45b2…cbc1backed No11c2,000$220 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2202020%4 W · 16 L+1.0wins+0.05per pick15cpaid+47.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb807…99cbbacked No4c2,000$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7310320.4%21 W · 82 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick23cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No16c1,990$325 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$324.762377.2%17 W · 220 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick9cpaid-38.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f31…80a1backed No4c1,945$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa2f7…4899backed Yes79c1,940$1,538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$402.39966.7%6 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-12%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3290…f4bdbacked No21c1,867$396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$396.192821.4%6 W · 22 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick14cpaid+63.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x822e…5febbacked No29c1,818$521 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$521.236344.4%28 W · 35 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick43cpaid-5.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb519…addfbacked Yes71c1,780$1,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$508.162268.2%15 W · 7 L+5.5wins+0.25per pick43cpaid+147.4%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0x5b63…11a4backed No8c1,748$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.428032.5%26 W · 54 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-36.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe92d…e158backed No9c1,745$165 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165911.1%1 W · 8 L-3.1wins-0.35per pick46cpaid-85.6%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x2048…f572backed Yes63c1,638$1,038 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.839046.7%42 W · 48 L-1.8wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x99bc…4f35backed Yes41c1,585$642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$943.2825422%56 W · 198 L-9.0wins-0.04per pick26cpaid-34.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x699c…50fdbacked Yes76c1,564$1,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$376.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x84ed…a7c7backed No18c1,554$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$279.711770.6%12 W · 5 L+4.2wins+0.24per pick46cpaid+62.9%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x7ac4…4f44backed No2c1,528$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.9510%0 W · 51 L-1.8wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1342…98bbbacked No13c1,498$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x4b01…95a9backed No1c1,460$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.34205%1 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-90%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x733b…0268backed Yes56c1,460$818 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$642.18440.5%34 W · 50 L+9.4wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+38%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xe79c…c715backed No36c1,377$493 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$492.84131.7%13 W · 28 L+2.8wins+0.07per pick25cpaid+15.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd6ee…37a2backed No31c1,359$420 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$420.3617948%86 W · 93 L+3.6wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-16.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2a2a…6c58backed No6c1,350$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.6510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0bf7…43a2backed No1c1,329$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.7710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x744c…e37fbacked No38c1,305$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5001361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.13per pick49cpaid+7.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6c37…d40fbacked No2c1,301$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.99400%0 W · 40 L-1.5wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ca0…2aacbacked No36c1,300$471 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$471.26425%1 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick27cpaid-56.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6e36…3e78backed Yes70c1,300$910 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.17per pick67cpaid-28.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9868…907ebacked No5c1,295$66 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.723315.2%5 W · 28 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-25.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xff70…fc79backed No6c1,288$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.7130%0 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x331b…3169backed No1c1,250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.14per pick36cpaid-29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0f26…1f12backed No1c1,250$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x83d7…317fbacked No19c1,232$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.8510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xec82…6eaabacked No3c1,211$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.712442%5 W · 239 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick4cpaid-56.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed No2c1,209$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.013511.4%4 W · 31 L+1.3wins+0.04per pick8cpaid+50%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8ab1…5ae4backed No25c1,201$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.62927.6%8 W · 21 L+3.4wins+0.12per pick16cpaid+62.3%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x714f…66d5backed No5c1,200$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.981910.5%2 W · 17 L-1.5wins-0.08per pick19cpaid-60%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x62f5…4b71backed No4c1,198$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.3333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick27cpaid-51.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xae63…4391backed No10c1,191$121 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8232…5992backed No42c1,184$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick47cpaid+10%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd744…526fbacked No39c1,174$458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$457.81944.4%4 W · 5 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick24cpaid+223.8%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x0105…4f29backed No46c1,153$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.75250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe001…2fa6backed No18c1,091$202 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$201.6810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2ba…b283backed No5c1,080$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.26742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-39.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe95e…61f2backed Yes60c1,071$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$426.0415041.3%62 W · 88 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x989c…69f4backed No38c1,055$400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$399.797546.7%35 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick44cpaid-21.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb64…3ffebacked Yes38c1,048$396 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$652.7933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.6wins-0.07per pick40cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd6a4…aa82backed Yes65c1,040$671 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.14540%2 W · 3 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick25cpaid-22.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5dd9…0f53backed No9c1,030$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.4333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick16cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b05…6180backed Yes68c1,017$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.881844.4%8 W · 10 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick39cpaid-10.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb3a5…3249backed No6c1,004$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.13per pick30cpaid+4.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1d20…6073backed No25c1,000$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$249.53540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-9.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc934…99e7backed No15c1,000$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1504219%8 W · 34 L-3.1wins-0.07per pick26cpaid-4.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.