TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe267…86e4

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
121
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
6

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 52 out of 100; worst Tweets at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2026, EDT5149%25 W · 26 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick46cpaid-6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 51 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
o1 FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$96
o1 FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$104Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$104.2
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$198Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$198.41
Over $15M committed to the Printr public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+163.2%+$163.16
Over $20M committed to the Printr public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+100%+$100
Over $40M committed to the Printr public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,200Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+33.6%+$403.32
Over $30M committed to the Printr public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$51.52
Octra FDV above $30M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT+53.7%+$66.69
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$1,033Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,033
Backpack FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$558Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$558.4
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$22
Backpack FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Backpack FDV above $700M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$210Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$210
Will Backpack launch a token by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Opinion FDV above $400M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+28.8%+$34.56
Bitway FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,994Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+28.6%+$570.99
Espresso FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$800Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+36.1%+$289.05
Superform FDV above $50M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$900Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+96.2%+$865.94
Over $3M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$414Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$413.98
Over $1M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST-100%-$44.73
Over $2M committed to the Hurupay public sale?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$370Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 7, 2026, EST+27%+$99.84
Tria FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+116.7%+$116.7
Infinex FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$471Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+71.9%+$338.68
Moonbirds FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST+30%+$59.94
Showing 25 of 51 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 19, 2026, EDT2817.9%5 W · 23 L-0.8wins-0.03per pick21cpaid-31.1%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 28 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$51.08
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$50
Will Israel's Ben Gurion Airport reopen by March 15?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$15
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Will Iran announce a new supreme leader on March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$150Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$150
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$160Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$160
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 2?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$48
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$120Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+234.7%+$281.6
US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST+632.3%+$192.23
Khamenei public appearance by February 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+170.3%+$170.73
US x Iran meeting by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST-100%-$105
Iran Strike on Israel by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 3, 2026, EST-100%-$44.3
Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$115Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$115
Iran strike on US military by January 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$100
Will Israel strike ≥4 countries in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Will Israel strike 3 countries in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Israel or the US target an Iranian oil or gas facility?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$44.97
Iran strike on Qatar by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25
US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST-100%-$36
Will Israel strike Lebanon on January 19, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST-100%-$40
Israel strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$120
Showing 25 of 28 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jan 13, 2026, EST2128.6%6 W · 15 L-1.8wins-0.09per pick37cpaid-41.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 21 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 6 to January 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from January 10 to January 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 240+ tweets from January 8 to January 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 10, 2026, EST-100%-$10
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from January 2 to January 9, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 9, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 140+ tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST+400%+$80
Will Elon Musk post 130-139 tweets from January 5 to January 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 7, 2026, EST-100%-$30
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$26
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 500-519 tweets from December 30 to January 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$11
Will Elon Musk post 140+ tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST+64.7%+$40.75
Will Elon Musk post 120-129 tweets from January 3 to January 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 5, 2026, EST-100%-$15
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$20.37
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$27.5
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from December 26 to January 2, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 2, 2026, EST-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from December 23 to December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$50
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+25.9%+$18.14
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from December 19 to December 26, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 26, 2025, EST+43.8%+$6.14
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 16 to December 23, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST+28.2%+$14.1
Will Elon Musk post 480-499 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$12
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 5 to December 12, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 12, 2025, EST-100%-$24
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from December 2 to December 9, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+62%+$12.39
All 21 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST137.7%1 W · 12 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick9cpaid-89.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will A Minecraft Movie be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$51Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$51
Will Avatar 3 be the second highest grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$14
Will Lilo and Stitch be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$152
Will Avatar 3 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$28
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$534Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$534
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Second Weekend Box Office be greater than 67m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 29, 2025, EST-100%-$11
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 90m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$200Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST+36.9%+$73.72
Will 'Avatar: Fire and Ash' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$85
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 112m and 123m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 123m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$478Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$478.5
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 90m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$71Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$71
Will "Avatar: Fire and Ash" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$25
Wicked vs Avatar: Bigger Domestic Opening Weekend?backed Avatar · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$16
All 13 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Feb 1, 2026, EST425%1 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.05per pick20cpaid-60.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zelenskyy attend the World Economic Forum?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$10.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 23, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 23, 2025, EST-100%-$26
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.