Token Launches · resolved market
o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xf000e6e58568fc7670e15d1baa7dabe7052b52886472e7825330a908beea1de2
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,318
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $42,953
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,318 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 42 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1635…5624backed No | 61c | 4,369$2,652 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,651.67 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57f9…bcd9backed Yes | 26c | 2,505$653 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,851.9 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x78c5…f623backed No | 1c | 2,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.76 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked Yes | 45c | 1,820$821 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$999.2 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb1b…efb5backed Yes | 77c | 1,611$1,236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.1 | 56 | 57.1%32 W · 24 L | +11.4wins | +0.20per pick | 37cpaid | +74.3%equal weight | 66+0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2879…1776backed No | 58c | 1,603$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x733b…0268backed Yes | 40c | 1,300$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$780 | 84 | 40.5%34 W · 50 L | +9.4wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +38%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x6fbb…a41abacked No | 72c | 1,300$938 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$938 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 52cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7411…086abacked No | 8c | 1,205$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 7c | 1,199$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.78 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 1c | 1,126$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.87 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb948…f0cdbacked Yes | 39c | 1,025$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$625.15 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +28.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 73c | 1,000$730 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$730 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xea9a…65d8backed No | 2c | 996.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cb2…94dcbacked Yes | 26c | 897.05$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$666.41 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.33per pick | 42cpaid | +77.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 7c | 886$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.11 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c0a…a2c3backed No | 7c | 747.16$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.55 | 32 | 46.9%15 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed Yes | 30c | 663.88$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$465.38 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 8c | 605$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.4 | 30 | 33.3%10 W · 20 L | -1.2wins | -0.04per pick | 37cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 75c | 600$448 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$448 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 5c | 594.66$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 244 | 2%5 W · 239 L | -5.7wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…5026backed Yes | 40c | 505.01$202 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$303.25 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe267…86e4backed No | 45c | 439.07$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.41 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 7c | 400$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28 | 254 | 1.6%4 W · 250 L | -7.7wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5316…0906backed Yes | 49c | 335.77$165 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$171.1 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +12.8wins | +0.22per pick | 53cpaid | +32.8%equal weight | 67+0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x764f…64a1backed No | 72c | 261$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.13 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 74cpaid | -54.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x321d…ed56backed Yes | 39c | 208.33$82 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$126.24 | 73 | 46.6%34 W · 39 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a6…aed7backed Yes | 58c | 171$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.93 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.07per pick | 56cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x173a…eb85backed No | 61c | 100$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -2.5wins | -0.21per pick | 46cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa36c…968ebacked No | 54c | 100$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.79 | 19 | 21.1%4 W · 15 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 29cpaid | -43.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcd10…fc0bbacked Yes | 47c | 100$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53 | 32 | 62.5%20 W · 12 L | +2.8wins | +0.09per pick | 54cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 71c | 60.75$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.85 | 463 | 20.5%95 W · 368 L | -68.1wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 75c | 55$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.25 | 81 | 34.6%28 W · 53 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -43.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xdc6e…e44cbacked No | 74c | 54.05$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.3wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18dc…5e90backed No | 56c | 53$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.68 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73c1…28f3backed Yes | 29c | 52$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.92 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +72.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb46…3692backed No | 74c | 51$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.74per pick | 74cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0c47…37e8backed No | 37c | 40.52$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.99 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -52.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf5bc…2c49backed Yes | 25c | 40$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2698…2941backed No | 56c | 35.9$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.28 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf2cf…464bbacked No | 79c | 35.19$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.84 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.5wins | -0.36per pick | 50cpaid | -81.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3484…a9fcbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 34 | 47.1%16 W · 18 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +11%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch?this page
- o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch?Yes won
- o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- o1 FDV above $400M one day after launch?Yes won
- o1 FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes won
- o1 FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.