Token Launches · resolved market
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xd638c61e552201ba3badd247a361aaa4a3440f15403483bff1e68eb0d6cdc7e3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $207,701
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $190,526
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $207,701 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 123 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x1635…5624backed No | 20c | 18,367$3,741 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,740.75 | 56 | 42.9%24 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7860…f985backed Yes | 75c | 12,580$9,450 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,129.93 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c90…5bacbacked No | 13c | 12,038$1,599 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,598.72 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac9b…d4c5backed No | 25c | 9,320$2,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,350.45 | 128 | 40.6%52 W · 76 L | +13.8wins | +0.11per pick | 30cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xfabe…8daabacked No | 0c | 8,685$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6138…97a0backed No | 17c | 5,560$956 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$955.52 | 159 | 41.5%66 W · 93 L | +9.4wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +7.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb82…4bf9backed No | 5c | 4,756$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.56 | 24 | 25%6 W · 18 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 23cpaid | +3.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc903…da58backed No | 15c | 4,544$673 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$672.95 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 2c | 4,480$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.94 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e8e…0cc4backed No | 26c | 3,825$983 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$983.22 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | +3.4wins | +0.16per pick | 16cpaid | +295.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0c55…9e26backed No | 15c | 3,553$522 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$522.01 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | -1.4wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -34%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf0f6…f699backed No | 14c | 2,998$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.31 | 238 | 41.2%98 W · 140 L | +25.1wins | +0.11per pick | 31cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf575…b53abacked No | 20c | 2,500$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -38.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 1c | 2,337$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.79 | 206 | 1.9%4 W · 202 L | +1.0wins | 0.00per pick | 1cpaid | +62.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 16c | 2,089$325 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$325.02 | 46 | 17.4%8 W · 38 L | -1.0wins | -0.02per pick | 20cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe182…b624backed No | 11c | 2,060$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.17 | 112 | 25.9%29 W · 83 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 24cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7bd2…f051backed No | 18c | 1,979$352 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15ce…b912backed No | 3c | 1,910$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.84 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +48.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x825e…f0d6backed No | 38c | 1,855$704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$704.07 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x772b…b16dbacked No | 29c | 1,836$534 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.15 | 69 | 27.5%19 W · 50 L | -3.3wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x14b0…8d0ebacked No | 25c | 1,781$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$436.84 | 141 | 41.8%59 W · 82 L | +8.8wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb3fe…4a24backed No | 13c | 1,499$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.54 | 125 | 28%35 W · 90 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 22cpaid | +22.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd18d…e7b4backed No | 18c | 1,333$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.4 | 54 | 25.9%14 W · 40 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -23%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8af6…bb84backed No | 18c | 1,100$193 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.99 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xafc3…6878backed No | 18c | 1,048$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.13 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.0wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4fca…f72ebacked No | 6c | 1,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 131 | 31.3%41 W · 90 L | +12.1wins | +0.09per pick | 22cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x10d4…69ebbacked No | 19c | 999.99$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe88b…f99fbacked No | 34c | 969.63$330 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.67 | 53 | 45.3%24 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -4.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x981d…ed7fbacked No | 39c | 945.13$366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$366.06 | 87 | 44.8%39 W · 48 L | +3.6wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +0.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa125…2761backed No | 18c | 845.96$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.57 | 31 | 48.4%15 W · 16 L | +1.9wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 3c | 800$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 154 | 1.9%3 W · 151 L | -5.3wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -86.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed No | 11c | 753.73$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.99 | 254 | 22%56 W · 198 L | -9.0wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 9c | 720.19$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.02 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 40cpaid | +12%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7cbf…6c43backed No | 37c | 697.7$258 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$257.53 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +93.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e53…6ba9backed No | 31c | 638.06$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.8 | 77 | 45.5%35 W · 42 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed No | 22c | 634.68$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.18 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8bb…f9c0backed No | 30c | 634$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.2 | 26 | 57.7%15 W · 11 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 54cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xea23…ae6fbacked No | 31c | 627.25$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.45 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46b2…eccabacked No | 13c | 545.6$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.09 | 31 | 32.3%10 W · 21 L | +1.7wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf524…8178backed No | 4c | 518.65$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.81 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +1.5wins | +0.12per pick | 19cpaid | +22.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9680…60babacked No | 30c | 503.64$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$151.09 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb99…4daebacked No | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 92 | 22.8%21 W · 71 L | +3.8wins | +0.04per pick | 19cpaid | +60.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x58a5…c4e3backed No | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 41 | 63.4%26 W · 15 L | +4.4wins | +0.11per pick | 53cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x250c…2774backed No | 4c | 493.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.86 | 142 | 4.2%6 W · 136 L | +3.2wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d78…ffa6backed No | 19c | 456.34$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.04 | 45 | 28.9%13 W · 32 L | +4.7wins | +0.10per pick | 19cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x661d…d35fbacked No | 21c | 450$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.5 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -2.9wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked No | 3c | 408$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 110 | 7.3%8 W · 102 L | +1.4wins | +0.01per pick | 6cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…06abbacked No | 8c | 404$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.32 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6539…f6cdbacked No | 35c | 400$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 99 | 20.2%20 W · 79 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed No | 6c | 387.5$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.4 | 167 | 40.7%68 W · 99 L | -10.7wins | -0.06per pick | 47cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdaf0…fd08backed No | 17c | 366.94$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.21 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -36.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 6c | 343$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.03 | 27 | 22.2%6 W · 21 L | -0.9wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…3ef7backed No | 40c | 342.92$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.03 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | +1.6wins | +0.10per pick | 21cpaid | +106.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 15c | 326.43$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.96 | 64 | 20.3%13 W · 51 L | -4.7wins | -0.07per pick | 28cpaid | -24.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b74…5935backed No | 31c | 310.81$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc3cd…816cbacked No | 19c | 300$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 92 | 28.3%26 W · 66 L | -2.2wins | -0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -9.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8262…eddebacked No | 21c | 300$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63 | 143 | 35.7%51 W · 92 L | +5.5wins | +0.04per pick | 32cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x726b…3d01backed No | 13c | 300$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x10ba…10b8backed No | 18c | 298$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e67…2b1fbacked Yes | 80c | 296.15$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 57cpaid | -5.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9495…468fbacked No | 8c | 295$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.99 | 43 | 30.2%13 W · 30 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 14c | 287.93$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.31 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -20.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x775b…4533backed No | 16c | 283.48$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.43 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xeaa9…1737backed No | 6c | 266$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.96 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.17per pick | 30cpaid | -82.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a2e…d3cabacked No | 12c | 249.75$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 9c | 201.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.54 | 54 | 27.8%15 W · 39 L | -4.1wins | -0.08per pick | 35cpaid | -48%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 77c | 201.22$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.69 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa09b…071ebacked No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 74 | 18.9%14 W · 60 L | -3.6wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf11f…5397backed No | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0cf…4b66backed No | 13c | 200$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 31cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03e1…e180backed No | 5c | 200$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…5026backed No | 8c | 200$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 62 | 46.8%29 W · 33 L | +4.9wins | +0.08per pick | 39cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb29…f510backed Yes | 78c | 200$156 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | -6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 78c | 198.65$155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.36 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked No | 10c | 192.72$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.82 | 33 | 15.2%5 W · 28 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f33…914ebacked No | 18c | 183.61$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.05 | 29 | 41.4%12 W · 17 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc9a7…320cbacked No | 24c | 166$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.84 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.11per pick | 20cpaid | -86.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 21c | 163.98$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1d91…c495backed No | 30c | 138.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 20c | 136.71$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 349 | 5.7%20 W · 329 L | -25.3wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf3ac…f23dbacked No | 20c | 122.4$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.83 | 44 | 34.1%15 W · 29 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | +9.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad26…da90backed No | 17c | 116.48$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 35 | 42.9%15 W · 20 L | +2.9wins | +0.08per pick | 35cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 17c | 116.47$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.8 | 71 | 26.8%19 W · 52 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -12.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5e…81ffbacked No | 36c | 112.93$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7248…8cb4backed Yes | 74c | 109.01$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.32 | 52 | 38.5%20 W · 32 L | -1.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb45c…9cf5backed No | 35c | 108.39$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +5.9wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +19.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc045…95b2backed No | 20c | 106$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdae8…8c95backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdc9e…3a30backed No | 20c | 100$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5149…acd1backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.05per pick | 58cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x616f…b241backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | -2.8wins | -0.13per pick | 67cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x6955…867abacked No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 328 | 3%10 W · 318 L | -3.0wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -45.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9c6…6b4dbacked No | 24c | 100$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1861…fa95backed No | 40c | 100$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 31 | 38.7%12 W · 19 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 38cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x72ae…1dbabacked Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 20 | 55%11 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e3e…522abacked No | 12c | 100$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ca2…1aa0backed Yes | 80c | 98.72$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.74 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd194…24b8backed Yes | 64c | 93.08$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.28 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.5wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 19c | 90.57$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.9 | 111 | 45.9%51 W · 60 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch?this page
- o1 FDV above $1B one day after launch?No won
- o1 FDV above $200M one day after launch?Yes won
- o1 FDV above $300M one day after launch?Yes won
- o1 FDV above $400M one day after launch?Yes won
- o1 FDV above $500M one day after launch?Yes won
- o1 FDV above $700M one day after launch?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.