TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xde79…06ab

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
148
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: Music, grading 53 out of 100 (+0.03 per pick).

Best Category Music at 53 out of 100; worst Middle East at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jun 18, 2026, EDT4721.3%10 W · 37 L-2.4wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-7.7%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 47 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.32
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$600M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.07
MegaETH market cap (FDV) >$1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$102
EdgeX FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$128Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$128
EdgeX FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$102Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$102
Backpack FDV above $300M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$126Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$173.99
Katana FDV above $100M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$45Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$254.99
Monad market cap (FDV) >$6B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$41Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+418.7%+$170.74
Will Monad perform an airdrop by October 31? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$67.78
WLFI market cap (FDV) <$10B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$19
WLFI market cap (FDV) >$16B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 2, 2025, EDT-100%-$52.92
Pump.fun >$4B market cap (FDV) one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$424Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$423.82
Will Pump.fun launch a token by July 31? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$78.47
Opensea token market cap (FDV) $5-10b one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$34
MetaMask airdrop in Q1 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$83Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$83.22
Rabby airdrop in Q1 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$35
OpenSea airdrop before April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$120Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$120
Will DOGE hit 69¢ by Inauguration Day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$612Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+41.8%+$255.94
$PNUT listed on Coinbase in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$44.8
Will Pump.fun launch a token in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$52
Aleo airdrop in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$14.67
Jumper airdrop in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$34.74
Pump.fun airdrop in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$17.77
Farcaster airdrop in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$14.87
Rainbow airdrop in 2024?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2025, EST-100%-$60.66
Showing 25 of 47 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 10, 2025, EDT4330.2%13 W · 30 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-32.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 43 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$18.74
Will Elon Musk create a new political party before August?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT+222.6%+$138
Will Elon Musk create a new political party by July 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2025, EDT-100%-$12.84
Will Trump pardon Edward Snowden in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$240Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$240.28
Will Trump pardon Steve Bannon in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$30
Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$1,099Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$1,099.31
Will Ken Paxton be a member of the Trump administration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$27
Will Ivanka Trump be a member of the Trump administration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$25
Will Betsy DeVos be a member of the Trump administration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$26
Will Kari Lake be a member of the Trump administration?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2025, EDT+274.4%+$228.88
Will Ken Paxton be Trump's Attorney General?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2025, EST-100%-$48.09
Trump nominates Elon Musk to Cabinet?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$1,129Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2025, EST+25.4%+$286.87
Trump cryptocurrency executive order on Day 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$448Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2025, EST-100%-$448.1
Will Trump pardon Ross Ulbricht in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$2,133Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+37.9%+$808.45
Will Trump pardon a January 6 protestor in his first 100 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$611Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST+27.7%+$168.99
Will RFK be a member of the Trump administration? backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2025, EST-100%-$46
Will $TRUMP hit $50B FDV by noon on inauguration day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$116Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2025, EST-100%-$116
Will Bitcoin hit $100k in 2024?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$2,797Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2024, EST-100%-$2,797.38
Will Joe pardon Hunter Biden?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2024, EST+244.8%+$225.64
Will Trump nominate Howard Lutnick for Treasury Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST-100%-$40.67
Will Trump nominate Bill Hagerty for Treasury Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST-100%-$16.24
Will Trump nominate Jay Clayton for Treasury Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$96Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST-100%-$95.69
Will Trump nominate Marc Rowan for Treasury Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST-100%-$89.41
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh for Treasury Secretary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST-100%-$53.4
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent for Treasury Secretary?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 22, 2024, EST-100%-$61
Showing 25 of 43 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT3215.6%5 W · 27 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick15cpaid+16%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 32 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 70 by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.05
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 60 by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$91Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$90.88
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 50 by July 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$72Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$72.2
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 40 by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.95
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index hit 80 by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$79Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.64
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$127Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$127
Will Bitcoin reach $78,000 April 6-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.49
Will Bitcoin dip to $64,000 April 6-12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$29
Will the Bitcoin Volatility Index dip to 50 by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 3, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$23.5
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$57
Will Hyperliquid dip to $20 before 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$47.28
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$14.16
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$1,205Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+165.1%+$1,989.4
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$26Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$25.86
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$141Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$140.82
Will Solana dip to $110 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$34.4
Will XRP dip to $0.80 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$28
Will Ethereum dip to $2,200 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$47.65
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$41Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$40.77
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 in November?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$185Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST-100%-$185.4
Will Ethereum hit $4,000 by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$516Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 8, 2025, EDT-100%-$515.84
Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$189.69
Bitcoin all time high before October?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$31.07
Bitcoin above $105,000 on July 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$11
Showing 25 of 32 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2025, EDT50%0 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.23per pick43cpaid-73.4%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Dec 10, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.22per pick12cpaid+14.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 4, 2025, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick26cpaid-53.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Boxing Inactivelast resolved Nov 16, 2024, EST30%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Boxing — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MLB Inactivelast resolved Jul 17, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
MLB — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Boston Red Soxbacked Tampa Bay Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.74
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Toronto Blue Jaysbacked Tampa Bay Rays · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$28.38
All 2 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NBA — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Aug 21, 2025, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Kanye launch a coin in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 21, 2025, EDT+400%+$45.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Aug 11, 2024, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+34.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
USA wins the most gold medals in 2024 Paris Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$170Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 11, 2024, EDT+34.6%+$58.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Sep 1, 2024, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ukraine hold Kursk through Aug 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 1, 2024, EDT-100%-$12
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.