TailMyPicks
Market

Us Politics · resolved market

Will Trump create Bitcoin reserve in first 100 days?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Us Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$23,324,353
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$25,214,081

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $23,324,353 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 5,828 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Us Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Us Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x1d04…ed05backed Yes8c1,828,137$141,771 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141,771.43616.7%1 W · 5 L0.0wins0.00per pick17cpaid-66.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x10b3…40d4backed Yes36c1,015,121$364,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$364,721.554833.3%16 W · 32 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick31cpaid-2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e05…e2fdbacked Yes16c698,976$111,096 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111,096.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-34.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7855…5c68backed Yes3c473,972$13,747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13,747.2120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdb75…0252backed No80c424,643$339,282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85,361.5250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-37.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x60b2…3ccebacked No74c379,794$280,729 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99,064.848143.2%35 W · 46 L-2.5wins-0.03per pick46cpaid+3.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc658…b784backed No78c340,011$265,605 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74,405.567041.4%29 W · 41 L+2.9wins+0.04per pick37cpaid-3.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x42a6…1b64backed No63c325,672$205,964 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119,708.6611940.3%48 W · 71 L+8.8wins+0.07per pick33cpaid+4.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x0ad1…5d7cbacked Yes4c273,981$9,944 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,944170%0 W · 17 L-2.8wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xbaa2…2c73backed No73c218,768$160,755 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58,012.844259.5%25 W · 17 L+4.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+28.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xa1da…8f6abacked Yes35c188,633$65,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65,959.761145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.12per pick34cpaid+17.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8a4c…532bbacked No50c172,602$87,083 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85,518.92040%8 W · 12 L+2.2wins+0.11per pick29cpaid+12.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6130…144abacked No46c145,728$67,102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78,626.48540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-29.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0d9…e4eebacked Yes70c144,721$101,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101,787.491747.1%8 W · 9 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-21.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9c3c…c276backed Yes16c141,927$22,480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,479.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x02f2…2cd0backed Yes31c140,328$44,042 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44,041.851020%2 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick25cpaid-24.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x119f…e464backed Yes26c140,005$36,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,720.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe7d5…89b2backed Yes39c130,961$50,586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50,585.9910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x218f…7ef2backed No75c130,000$97,300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,699.982254.5%12 W · 10 L+3.5wins+0.16per pick39cpaid+19.6%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed No64c129,884$83,096 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$46,788.226145.9%28 W · 33 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-13%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4558…a2b3backed No77c127,414$97,670 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29,744.354052.5%21 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick49cpaid-17%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc781…59d7backed Yes25c126,163$31,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,040.73240.6%13 W · 19 L+0.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid+38.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bab…1292backed No74c116,792$86,013 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,779.266546.2%30 W · 35 L+4.3wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+29.1%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x889e…09e0backed No57c115,317$65,520 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,796.8210749.5%53 W · 54 L+10.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+61.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2f2b…28cabacked Yes36c114,652$40,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40,792.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x31bc…8021backed Yes28c112,456$31,722 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31,722.3930%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed No79c107,652$85,576 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,075.969634.9%243 W · 453 L-48.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2e4d…f703backed No77c106,969$82,202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,766.85850%4 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-21.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x20ea…a8dcbacked Yes6c105,593$5,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,964.4460%0 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked No70c104,612$73,209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31,402.462365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.6wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+7.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8a71…5cbfbacked No66c96,618$63,949 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,668.951100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bb2…682cbacked No53c95,852$50,482 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45,370.595756.1%32 W · 25 L+4.9wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+35.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x614d…1546backed No72c95,645$68,503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$27,141.718453.6%45 W · 39 L+0.2wins0.00per pick53cpaid-5.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e10…9b8bbacked No54c92,832$50,222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42,609.69250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick30cpaid-7.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x332a…33babacked Yes32c92,520$29,835 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,835.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc7aa…d0f0backed Yes40c88,652$35,548 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,547.533228.1%9 W · 23 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick27cpaid-33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5095…c97cbacked No63c81,615$51,059 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30,556.337354.8%40 W · 33 L+5.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+7.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x7327…151abacked Yes15c81,594$11,836 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,836.43212.5%4 W · 28 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick11cpaid-20.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcb13…a9c0backed Yes2c78,185$1,432 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,431.5410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4bbe…2cf3backed No79c77,780$61,469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,310.818450%42 W · 42 L-9.4wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-26.8%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x53e5…6177backed Yes47c76,703$36,290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,289.762334.8%8 W · 15 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick36cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc822…c185backed No46c76,631$35,041 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$41,589.221968.4%13 W · 6 L+3.9wins+0.21per pick48cpaid+14.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x444a…1913backed Yes46c76,353$35,011 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35,011.3740%0 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7da5…1025backed Yes19c74,106$14,080 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,080.1440%0 W · 4 L-1.2wins-0.29per pick29cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc95c…21c6backed Yes32c70,275$22,142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,142.3310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfffa…864bbacked No67c68,380$45,893 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22,487.04785.7%6 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick70cpaid+30.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xaec0…5a19backed Yes7c67,800$4,681 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,681.42626.5%4 W · 58 L-3.1wins-0.05per pick12cpaid-60.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xfcb0…c865backed No70c65,252$45,614 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,638.7515646.8%73 W · 83 L+4.7wins+0.03per pick44cpaid-9.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf9b6…61cebacked No61c64,321$39,491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,829.211546.7%7 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.13per pick33cpaid-4.5%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6b3d…76ddbacked No64c61,286$39,293 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$21,992.976028.3%17 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick28cpaid-41.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8d98…3199backed No72c61,226$44,129 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,097.17250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.19per pick69cpaid-30.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0df2…b7cebacked Yes34c60,647$20,498 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,497.7250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-31.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfe4a…ac42backed Yes50c58,746$29,581 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29,581.241942.1%8 W · 11 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick44cpaid+6.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x863f…8775backed No55c58,155$32,067 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26,088.59450%2 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+47%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1e9…59a8backed Yes35c57,285$19,938 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,937.55250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-27.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb2ee…752bbacked Yes39c55,432$21,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,723.34250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick23cpaid+571.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa975…f137backed No73c52,617$38,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,132.24633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-53.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8258…f208backed No68c52,071$35,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,897.613268.8%22 W · 10 L+5.9wins+0.18per pick50cpaid+34.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0x5a88…5530backed Yes19c51,810$9,966 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,965.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e13…33b7backed Yes19c51,244$9,964 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,963.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a73…2cc5backed Yes54c50,969$27,638 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27,638.15450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x33ac…9334backed Yes40c50,426$20,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,000250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce95…034dbacked Yes30c50,165$14,984 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,983.720%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x58af…162fbacked Yes42c49,764$20,889 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,888.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2b40…3564backed Yes47c45,841$21,739 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,739.1510%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x90ee…7182backed Yes11c45,463$4,946 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,945.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb669…dc8fbacked Yes23c44,248$9,983 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,982.7110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd52…0001backed Yes49c43,736$21,371 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,371.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8ff6…72aebacked Yes11c43,606$5,013 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,012.851010%1 W · 9 L0.0wins0.00per pick10cpaid-43.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xada5…a69ebacked Yes12c43,600$5,240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,24010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xe275…f1eebacked No70c42,498$29,849 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12,649.19560%3 W · 2 L+1.6wins+0.32per pick28cpaid+73.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xffde…c665backed No59c42,348$25,087 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17,261.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+68.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa5c5…a736backed Yes26c41,867$10,811 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,810.59540%2 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-37.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8224…94f2backed Yes24c40,700$9,805 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,80510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed No73c40,652$29,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,816.523639.4%93 W · 143 L+4.4wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x08c8…1da2backed No72c40,360$28,946 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,414.375158.8%30 W · 21 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe0…6387backed Yes29c40,211$11,731 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,730.771442.9%6 W · 8 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick36cpaid-19.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x96c6…34a2backed No70c39,517$27,716 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,800.610055%55 W · 45 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick57cpaid-5.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd039…2532backed No73c39,203$28,562 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,640.9611538.3%44 W · 71 L+5.9wins+0.05per pick33cpaid+44.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x8890…79bdbacked Yes20c39,005$7,842 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,841.943727%10 W · 27 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick25cpaid-28.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd352…4ad6backed No56c38,286$21,561 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16,724.521631.3%5 W · 11 L-0.9wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-48.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb67c…a2c3backed Yes27c38,172$10,265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,264.68933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-30.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb100…6461backed No73c38,043$27,929 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,113.7917850%89 W · 89 L+8.7wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+16.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd27c…c081backed Yes57c37,269$21,064 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21,064.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x241f…3143backed No71c37,050$26,452 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,597.931752.9%9 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick55cpaid-18.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8650…4623backed Yes24c37,000$8,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,88010%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked No67c36,504$24,574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,929.875442.6%23 W · 31 L-3.0wins-0.06per pick48cpaid+6.8%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x58ad…2f0dbacked Yes25c36,490$9,234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,233.5310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8be…830cbacked Yes33c35,440$11,529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,528.56728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-34.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x44c1…5f7bbacked Yes28c35,000$9,658 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,657.590%0 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x4960…7a11backed Yes57c33,710$19,128 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19,128.330%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5b09…bca8backed Yes45c32,683$14,844 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,844.4830%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6913…c6b0backed Yes35c31,855$10,996 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,995.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30e4…5102backed No63c31,839$20,159 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,680.2413540%54 W · 81 L+5.1wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x54d0…168bbacked No66c30,322$19,979 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,343.291100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaf41…1587backed No70c30,075$21,162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,913.314938.8%19 W · 30 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-31.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x84ea…17ebbacked No75c30,046$22,657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,389.168739.1%34 W · 53 L+0.7wins+0.01per pick38cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c68…8c44backed Yes2c29,608$728 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$727.5210%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x96b5…f5e7backed No74c29,038$21,631 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,407.3116943.2%73 W · 96 L-7.6wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-26.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xc331…1d71backed Yes7c28,840$1,890 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,8902814.3%4 W · 24 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-46.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Us Politics and say nothing about this market.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.