Token Launches · resolved market
MetaMask airdrop in Q1 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8ca679c9d97dc8d7b71bad3e87c9d21b8a3743b400bbf7c447d82f84afdf1252
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $174,864
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $167,856
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $174,864 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 55 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x6094…d1d0backed Yes | 5c | 13,647$636 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$636.39 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes | 0c | 11,611$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.84 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 4,330$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.46 | 57 | 1.8%1 W · 56 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 0cpaid | +116.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8cc…028abacked Yes | 1c | 2,866$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.35 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc390…28bdbacked Yes | 4c | 2,726$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.4 | 57 | 5.3%3 W · 54 L | -4.2wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | +48.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…326cbacked Yes | 2c | 2,619$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5b3c…8727backed Yes | 8c | 2,476$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.15 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -4.3wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x87bd…4c30backed Yes | 4c | 2,462$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.82 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1d7…0d61backed Yes | 3c | 1,795$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 3c | 1,672$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.17 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8f23…c7d0backed Yes | 5c | 1,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.99 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xde79…06abbacked Yes | 6c | 1,473$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.22 | 47 | 21.3%10 W · 37 L | -2.4wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf371…eb4fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,404$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 18cpaid | +77.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed Yes | 3c | 1,319$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.4 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…0764backed Yes | 1c | 1,286$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc5a6…6db3backed Yes | 13c | 1,266$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7292…101cbacked Yes | 8c | 1,201$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2cc0…2fcabacked Yes | 8c | 1,189$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb824…d7ebbacked Yes | 2c | 1,177$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa925…e1c8backed Yes | 9c | 1,156$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$104 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24c8…23e1backed Yes | 1c | 1,050$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.98 | 84 | 8.3%7 W · 77 L | -2.0wins | -0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.38 | 766 | 3.3%25 W · 741 L | -23.5wins | -0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -75.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc4…768fbacked Yes | 5c | 938.1$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.91 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x147e…59dabacked Yes | 10c | 893$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -61.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5b07…5de1backed Yes | 6c | 852.26$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd773…5214backed Yes | 6c | 839.63$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1e5a…d56ebacked Yes | 2c | 793.14$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.42 | 56 | 23.2%13 W · 43 L | +1.2wins | +0.02per pick | 21cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x18a7…d21abacked Yes | 3c | 785.88$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.52 | 45 | 8.9%4 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 7cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 6c | 734.08$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 44 | 4.5%2 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -92.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f99…9b59backed Yes | 21c | 711.65$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.1 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -25.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa963…65e6backed Yes | 6c | 665$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb482…fbc7backed Yes | 5c | 600$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.5wins | +0.09per pick | 30cpaid | +9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x29cb…b115backed Yes | 7c | 591.57$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9e…49b3backed Yes | 26c | 585.65$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.94 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfb27…4db3backed Yes | 4c | 499.99$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6a…a012backed Yes | 9c | 488.52$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.53 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3fcd…df2abacked Yes | 11c | 472.78$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.5wins | -0.08per pick | 36cpaid | -9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x70bd…a483backed Yes | 5c | 444.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa629…d5d2backed Yes | 5c | 430$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 6c | 386.69$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.72 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0533…b618backed Yes | 9c | 333.33$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4645…7101backed Yes | 6c | 307.7$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.46 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 22cpaid | -30.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x745a…64e8backed Yes | 8c | 302.66$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 23 | 8.7%2 W · 21 L | -3.7wins | -0.16per pick | 25cpaid | -61.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe3…dd60backed Yes | 6c | 300$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbcb7…fe03backed Yes | 8c | 289.5$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1702…b0e3backed Yes | 7c | 281.25$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe7b3…c4f2backed Yes | 9c | 277.78$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf240…2392backed Yes | 51c | 210$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.1 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x96f2…7effbacked Yes | 7c | 199.94$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.20per pick | 20cpaid | +88.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x72d6…1c32backed Yes | 6c | 192.27$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 6cpaid | +2,101.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ee…0991backed Yes | 9c | 190$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x86a2…be38backed Yes | 16c | 100$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe3fe…978fbacked Yes | 75c | 40$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 68cpaid | +16.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e7c…82d4backed Yes | 71c | 34$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.71per pick | 71cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x228c…823cbacked No | 76c | 20$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- MetaMask airdrop in Q1 2025?this page
- Berachain airdrop in Q1 2025?Yes won
- Aleo airdrop in Q1 2025?No won
- Astaria airdrop in Q1 2025?No won
- Avail airdrop in Q1 2025?No won
- Farcaster airdrop in Q1 2025?No won
- Jumper airdrop in Q1 2025?No won
- Linea airdrop in Q1 2025?No won
- PartyDAO airdrop in Q1 2025?No won
- Pump.fun airdrop in Q1 2025?No won
- Rabby airdrop in Q1 2025?No won
- Rainbow airdrop in Q1 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.