TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Jumper airdrop in Q1 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$323,900
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$325,550

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $323,900 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 108 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xd126…267bbacked Yes45c143,661$64,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64,647.610%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2273…7656backed No55c143,661$79,014 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64,647.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No66c1,225$808 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.437919%15 W · 64 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-63.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7441…233cbacked Yes17c1,087$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c85…9c78backed Yes34c952$322 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cfb…0dfabacked Yes1c900.24$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes7c899.94$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.99510%0 W · 51 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x43f9…fce1backed Yes17c807$137 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd06f…d4a6backed No58c766.62$444 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$322.792450%12 W · 12 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-27.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb482…fbc7backed Yes34c663.24$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$224.112839.3%11 W · 17 L+2.5wins+0.09per pick30cpaid+9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes24c619.41$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.5433329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7bca…71cdbacked Yes17c565$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.05250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x85e3…202cbacked Yes24c558.68$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.3728.6%2 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick25cpaid+109%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe95e…61f2backed No63c549.68$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$204.2415041.3%62 W · 88 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed No75c529.81$395 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.4611833.9%40 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc900…4faebacked Yes34c493.15$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.57333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.13per pick47cpaid-50.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes36c438.54$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.18966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+39%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x4645…7101backed Yes37c348.68$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.01119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick22cpaid-30.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x55b4…80eabacked Yes39c340.65$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.341346.2%6 W · 7 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick36cpaid-10.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea55…379fbacked Yes17c337$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes10c331.79$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.56575.3%3 W · 54 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid+48.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x20af…efadbacked No46c306$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+21.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x076d…4a67backed Yes35c300$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10510%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4202…be6dbacked Yes17c265$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6e0…c096backed Yes34c253.55$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.4820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xce05…97abbacked No71c238.48$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.03250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.20per pick70cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes46c233.78$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.121240.6%86 W · 126 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8ce1…5f46backed No61c231.5$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$90.293100%3 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.64per pick36cpaid+265.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x7514…49bebacked No64c208.81$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.021163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.10per pick54cpaid+42.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7cc4…768fbacked Yes54c200$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1081118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick35cpaid-70.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes14c182.95$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.523013.3%4 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+42.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x6530…2a1abacked Yes17c172$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes17c163.32$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.41714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick41cpaid-82%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8111…489dbacked No66c159.77$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54.752560%15 W · 10 L+4.7wins+0.19per pick41cpaid+46.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xdaae…21dabacked Yes33c151.52$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50616.7%1 W · 5 L-2.0wins-0.34per pick51cpaid-78.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x84b1…c7ccbacked No50c149.06$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.53250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid0%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x63a1…b435backed No69c144.48$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.48366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x147e…59dabacked Yes35c144.16$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50825%2 W · 6 L-1.6wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-61.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x03b6…2f9dbacked Yes58c132$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.0620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x400b…1b03backed Yes17c131$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.2710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd39b…9343backed No66c125.72$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$42.841681.3%13 W · 3 L+5.3wins+0.33per pick48cpaid+97.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x1fd5…7891backed Yes17c123$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcb8…9dd9backed Yes17c117$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.8910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6e8…7a29backed Yes17c107$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.1910%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0c69…766ebacked Yes38c105.26$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4030%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xfa7f…7ab2backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34850%4 W · 4 L+0.3wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3242…3f25backed Yes34c100$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+150%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2eb0…c62cbacked No66c99.98$66 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$33.991100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42b2…e1f0backed No76c98.68$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.68771.4%5 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.27per pick44cpaid+78.8%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x7853…36d8backed No79c90.48$72 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.762944.8%13 W · 16 L+0.7wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+22.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc84a…9099backed No73c85$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.6666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed Yes39c83.6$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.7519336.3%70 W · 123 L-5.0wins-0.03per pick39cpaid-9.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9f57…a439backed Yes16c82$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe612…25fbbacked No68c81.01$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.011100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+47.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9225…0a6dbacked Yes21c80.56$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4fe…7d11backed Yes16c77$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf6e7…f13fbacked Yes16c77$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe900…6cdcbacked Yes35c75$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.2520%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xf731…d555backed Yes28c71.66$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-23.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x90ac…8daebacked No79c69.74$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.742100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+257.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0f99…9b59backed Yes32c65$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.8933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-25.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7960…f8a8backed Yes54c64.99$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.29922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5234…403fbacked Yes17c64$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6441…9f4ebacked No58c63.29$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.331100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+71.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ee8…53bdbacked Yes17c62$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes41c60$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.44422.7%10 W · 34 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-47.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x716b…7dc1backed Yes17c60$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed No62c60$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.853831.6%12 W · 26 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-34.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8bd…2f52backed Yes34c58.82$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.20per pick45cpaid-68.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9629…8299backed Yes31c57.62$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc95c…cfd3backed No64c54.69$35 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.691100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+56.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x5f9b…14e1backed Yes38c52.63$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd99…721cbacked No72c50$36 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-32.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7556…f7e4backed No63c50$31 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$18.57475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick44cpaid+39.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x02f0…ab20backed Yes34c48.28$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.581030%3 W · 7 L-1.7wins-0.17per pick47cpaid-58.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2204…5692backed Yes34c47.82$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.26450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7474…7d5dbacked Yes32c46.88$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe89…a0babacked Yes38c46$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.48450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes37c42.24$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.54316.3%7 W · 36 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-55.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x61f7…08aebacked Yes38c33.27$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.49110%0 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xa92d…6de8backed No60c33$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd7a6…8e49backed No61c32.79$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.791675%12 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.18per pick57cpaid+21.2%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x8774…17f2backed No63c30.98$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.461100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x46c8…e5dfbacked No67c30.96$21 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.223100%3 W · 0 L+1.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+167.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9e0e…6ca5backed No62c30.65$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.652100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+43.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4804…f2ddbacked No65c30$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10.51100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5fb4…bcddbacked Yes36c29.98$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3293…f898backed Yes39c28.21$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11425%1 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick39cpaid-66.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x25dc…a2d9backed No58c27.72$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.42per pick58cpaid+73.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4eac…ac8bbacked Yes48c25$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12450%2 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-33.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf6b1…b4f3backed No77c24.25$19 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdd9e…49b3backed No67c23.98$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.832213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x0710…42a2backed Yes51c23.85$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.061478.6%11 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.09per pick69cpaid+14.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc2a…97aabacked Yes55c22.17$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.081020%2 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-29.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76342.9%27 W · 36 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xca30…8042backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3975…626abacked No78c20$16 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.41080%8 W · 2 L+1.3wins+0.13per pick67cpaid+27.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6f1f…8ac7backed No62c19.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c50…c380backed No60c19.99$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.40per pick60cpaid+66.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ba1…5a5cbacked No69c19.7$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+44.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.