Token Launches · resolved market
Aleo airdrop in Q1 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x718dce621cda33f87a79100601b426ba47dc9b92f89022d7ec44a4fe9a6877a9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $20,053
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $20,606
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $20,053 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcdbf…1926backed Yes | 4c | 936.62$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 44 | 4.5%2 W · 42 L | -2.2wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -92.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6055…1cf6backed Yes | 5c | 478$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf663…2535backed Yes | 5c | 275$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked Yes | 23c | 247.96$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.34 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +39%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 5c | 247.1$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.35 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9e…49b3backed No | 61c | 240.71$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.31 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b89…0b1abacked Yes | 5c | 230$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 79c | 223.64$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.17 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 29c | 167.64$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 15c | 156.49$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.49 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf998…7b41backed No | 72c | 138.18$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 28c | 126.08$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.64 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbed0…77c7backed Yes | 30c | 81.94$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.28 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 45cpaid | +94.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ec8…cf73backed Yes | 23c | 80$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.23per pick | 23cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 23c | 61.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.07 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…9a7ebacked No | 68c | 55.13$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.64 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 68cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe077…8ee3backed Yes | 29c | 46.45$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.29 | 43 | 18.6%8 W · 35 L | +1.4wins | +0.03per pick | 15cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9a85…80d2backed Yes | 32c | 42.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe95e…61f2backed No | 70c | 40$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.2 | 150 | 41.3%62 W · 88 L | +2.5wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1efc…033bbacked Yes | 32c | 35.38$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b9f…cff9backed Yes | 32c | 35.13$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03ab…2554backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.26per pick | 75cpaid | +34.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1366…bf01backed No | 73c | 25$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf7…280ebacked No | 68c | 19.34$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Aleo airdrop in Q1 2025?this page
- Berachain airdrop in Q1 2025?Yes won
- Astaria airdrop in Q1 2025?No won
- Avail airdrop in Q1 2025?No won
- Farcaster airdrop in Q1 2025?No won
- Jumper airdrop in Q1 2025?No won
- Linea airdrop in Q1 2025?No won
- MetaMask airdrop in Q1 2025?No won
- PartyDAO airdrop in Q1 2025?No won
- Pump.fun airdrop in Q1 2025?No won
- Rabby airdrop in Q1 2025?No won
- Rainbow airdrop in Q1 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.