TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Farcaster airdrop in Q1 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$194,180
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$193,230

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $194,180 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 106 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7567…4981backed Yes30c82,016$24,605 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,604.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9889…3e00backed No70c82,016$57,411 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$24,604.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0dfa…c0e3backed Yes0c5,180$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.72220%0 W · 22 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xdd9e…49b3backed Yes16c1,982$320 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$320.132213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4c25…c3bebacked Yes8c1,323$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes1c1,137$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.91220%0 W · 22 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes13c809.59$103 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$103.473013.3%4 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+42.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x0f99…9b59backed Yes19c806.82$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$150.4933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-25.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes5c607.7$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.7510%0 W · 51 L-3.3wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf240…2392backed Yes25c505$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.830%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x23a1…1ab7backed Yes4c403.37$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe077…8ee3backed Yes15c251.21$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.534318.6%8 W · 35 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick15cpaid-3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2608…87c5backed Yes23c234$54 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$54.0510%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes43c226.95$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.9533329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x288e…b6b4backed Yes27c217$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8aa…fabebacked Yes27c216$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes11c199$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.35458.9%4 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-51.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x38c3…2031backed No73c187$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$51.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd39b…9343backed No80c158.73$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.031681.3%13 W · 3 L+5.3wins+0.33per pick48cpaid+97.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xe4d6…745dbacked Yes20c157.13$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31.93128.3%1 W · 11 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick18cpaid-71.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes25c156.35$39 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38.744316.3%7 W · 36 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-55.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x3f66…d2eabacked Yes27c138$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbb00…b0f1backed No77c128$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$29.571100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3001…5cb2backed No77c123.36$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$28.16757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.4wins+0.20per pick38cpaid+107.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xefa2…4905backed Yes10c120.66$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.6310%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7960…f8a8backed Yes27c119.99$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.99922.2%2 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-38.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3978…2f24backed Yes21c110.72$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.563638.9%14 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2370…0e10backed No77c100.02$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$237919%15 W · 64 L-6.0wins-0.08per pick27cpaid-63.4%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x39ee…1464backed No73c92$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes20c91.54$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.75575.3%3 W · 54 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid+48.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xebdb…51babacked Yes23c88.99$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.3520%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1c26…e9d0backed No77c87$67 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8032…e135backed No73c86$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$23.481100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5ccf…8801backed No73c82$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa45a…811abacked No73c82$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd4f…7ff9backed No73c82$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$22.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf93a…8a46backed Yes23c73.69$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.01683.3%5 W · 1 L+1.9wins+0.31per pick52cpaid+170.9%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xdc2a…97aabacked Yes35c71.23$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.931020%2 W · 8 L-2.9wins-0.29per pick49cpaid-29.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xc84a…9099backed No73c71.12$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19.09666.7%4 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xda21…e5e9backed No78c69.99$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15.42147.6%10 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.13per pick61cpaid-25.5%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x6f2e…ecaabacked No74c67.57$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.57366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.29per pick38cpaid+103.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbed0…77c7backed Yes24c64.84$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.541060%6 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick45cpaid+94.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcc22…ee03backed No77c61$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.03580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x415c…3c94backed Yes29c59.99$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.33016.7%5 W · 25 L-4.7wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-41.4%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x405e…de7ebacked No70c57.49$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.251428.6%4 W · 10 L-2.2wins-0.16per pick44cpaid-61%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x9178…ea18backed Yes27c57$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaf8b…e4e3backed Yes24c53$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.6710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x914a…4de2backed No76c51$39 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3edd…b2d2backed Yes27c51$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.8710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeb5f…5c85backed No65c51$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$17.85875%6 W · 2 L+2.2wins+0.28per pick47cpaid+32.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xfefe…8f45backed Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick39cpaid-48.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7960…975dbacked Yes21c50$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.530%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xcd98…129cbacked No76c50$38 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3c5f…fc92backed Yes23c47$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9544…0428backed Yes25c43$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.6610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x260d…9679backed Yes26c40.32$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.524422.7%10 W · 34 L-4.9wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-47.1%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x1a94…78b6backed No65c39.89$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13.961471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+65.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x432a…4f0ebacked Yes28c36$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.1210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa66c…7e83backed No76c31$24 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x61f7…08aebacked Yes51c29.25$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.01110%0 W · 11 L-2.6wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x65de…38f3backed No79c25.32$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.32250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-36.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd257…f578backed No79c25.16$20 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.161338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick49cpaid-38.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2182…fd1abacked No79c22.63$18 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb830…f01cbacked No77c22$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.041100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe58f…32acbacked No73c21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x734e…8900backed No73c21$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5.711100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf22e…8d9cbacked No75c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5147.1%1 W · 13 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick22cpaid-90.5%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf1f9…1245backed No65c20$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72128.6%6 W · 15 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd358…9b59backed No77c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc0f5…a54bbacked No76c20$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7bca…71cdbacked No77c19$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.39250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-35%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1bf3…bd39backed No76c19$14 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.541100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4218…8b6cbacked No80c18.75$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7623…12cdbacked No73c18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x17d8…e82bbacked No73c18$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.91100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09b0…7e97backed No73c17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x176d…e386backed No73c17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.611100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6d09…6a5ebacked No75c17$13 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick75cpaid+34.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbeab…9cc6backed No72c17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9572…5550backed No73c17$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c6d…b7dabacked No73c16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.341100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6af2…126ebacked No77c16$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.741100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc04…f9b8backed No72c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+39.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x846b…d583backed No75c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcc4f…0d85backed No73c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa109…1027backed No75c15$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.721100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdaf6…5e24backed No77c15$12 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8474…8692backed No79c14.62$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+27.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x161f…0f10backed No78c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.111100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa01f…ac67backed No77c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5e0f…1965backed No77c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfc20…6f89backed No77c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6289…8e60backed No75c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7b…70bdbacked No73c14$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.821100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1bb…6887backed No76c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.351100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e73…8471backed No77c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.261100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc61d…f3a3backed No77c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+29.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb6b…c5a4backed No77c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9be9…31aabacked No76c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.361100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.24per pick76cpaid+31.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x445c…e824backed No77c14$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3.251100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.23per pick77cpaid+30.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.