Token Launches · resolved market
Rainbow airdrop in Q1 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3cc8b62ce2e549f3b2c011bec5aaea4b5f6bd8d33af78f5d8488b56632726250
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $29,174
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $27,043
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $29,174 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 67 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Token Launches | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xd06f…d4a6backed No | 75c | 1,754$1,314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$439.98 | 24 | 50%12 W · 12 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdd9e…49b3backed Yes | 19c | 1,333$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.42 | 22 | 13.6%3 W · 19 L | -2.2wins | -0.10per pick | 24cpaid | -66.8%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7cc4…768fbacked Yes | 39c | 1,201$469 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$469.25 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.17per pick | 35cpaid | -70.8%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c4…e16ebacked Yes | 6c | 997.44$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 6c | 604.93$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.36 | 51 | 0%0 W · 51 L | -3.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8da3…8a67backed No | 68c | 577.9$392 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.95 | 15 | 60%9 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +26.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x52f1…a7f3backed Yes | 66c | 557.56$369 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.66per pick | 66cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 37c | 453.85$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.94 | 333 | 29.7%99 W · 234 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x413e…9255backed Yes | 18c | 431$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf612…5700backed Yes | 20c | 388.91$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.88 | 38 | 31.6%12 W · 26 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -34.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc498…24e3backed No | 57c | 367.17$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb293…cb90backed Yes | 22c | 351.9$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.96 | 30 | 13.3%4 W · 26 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 12cpaid | +42.1%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca62…fbfabacked Yes | 19c | 322$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.22 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | -5.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x35b9…6b49backed Yes | 6c | 308.93$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.24per pick | 9cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x93b4…cbfdbacked No | 65c | 300.69$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$104.37 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +1.8wins | +0.20per pick | 46cpaid | +39%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x07bc…56d3backed No | 75c | 266.18$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.18 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.25per pick | 75cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3001…5cb2backed No | 71c | 240.37$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.79 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.4wins | +0.20per pick | 38cpaid | +107.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 34c | 218.77$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.32 | 212 | 40.6%86 W · 126 L | -9.2wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -16.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7514…49bebacked No | 61c | 207.01$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.03 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 16c | 203.39$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$170.85 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | +1.6wins | +0.09per pick | 14cpaid | +99.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x260d…9679backed Yes | 48c | 150$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.6 | 44 | 22.7%10 W · 34 L | -4.9wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -47.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd39b…9343backed No | 76c | 143.75$109 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.06 | 16 | 81.3%13 W · 3 L | +5.3wins | +0.33per pick | 48cpaid | +97.1%equal weight | 64+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xe6a3…fc02backed Yes | 19c | 136.7$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.47 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.8wins | -0.26per pick | 41cpaid | -82%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x290c…bd36backed Yes | 40c | 124.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.03 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xff0b…276cbacked Yes | 18c | 120$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4254…5e85backed Yes | 42c | 117.98$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb912…56b7backed Yes | 51c | 106.65$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.51per pick | 51cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x029d…d68ebacked Yes | 19c | 105.26$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcb0d…0764backed Yes | 19c | 104.73$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x028d…28bdbacked No | 28c | 100$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.48per pick | 18cpaid | +218.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1960…ccf0backed Yes | 17c | 99.98$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.6 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x07bf…dd92backed Yes | 18c | 89$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 23c | 86.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 193 | 36.3%70 W · 123 L | -5.0wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -9.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7556…f7e4backed No | 50c | 85.96$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.98 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.31per pick | 44cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4337…8882backed Yes | 18c | 85.29$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.09 | 118 | 33.9%40 W · 78 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -36.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24bb…c595backed Yes | 18c | 80$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6227…f864backed Yes | 18c | 75$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf1e5…18f4backed No | 71c | 73.01$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.85 | 15 | 73.3%11 W · 4 L | +3.8wins | +0.25per pick | 48cpaid | +33.9%equal weight | 61+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x70a8…9105backed Yes | 23c | 72$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.42 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | +78.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe991…3ccfbacked Yes | 18c | 71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd3e0…5480backed Yes | 18c | 71$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe27f…f07ebacked Yes | 18c | 63$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x24bc…5247backed Yes | 50c | 62.92$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb526…abebbacked Yes | 18c | 62$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3978…2f24backed No | 49c | 55.42$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$28.02 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0a2…a349backed No | 46c | 53.78$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.2 | 80 | 52.5%42 W · 38 L | +11.1wins | +0.14per pick | 39cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x2741…0865backed Yes | 36c | 50.15$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.94 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -5.3wins | -0.12per pick | 29cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…51f8backed Yes | 20c | 50.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdd99…721cbacked No | 57c | 50$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.5 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 50cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd7b8…a508backed No | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4e03…c3bbbacked Yes | 39c | 49.3$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f9b…14e1backed Yes | 41c | 48.78$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7960…f8a8backed Yes | 30c | 47.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.1 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe89…a0babacked Yes | 38c | 46$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.48 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8a3…cd82backed No | 75c | 45$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.46 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc2a…97aabacked Yes | 39c | 44.49$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.49 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.9wins | -0.29per pick | 49cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x323f…a845backed No | 76c | 43.64$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.64 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2f8e…4e3bbacked Yes | 35c | 42.69$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc84a…9099backed No | 77c | 40$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.33 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 71cpaid | -11.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd225…5c13backed No | 59c | 40$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.4 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.37per pick | 63cpaid | +64.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2b26…57e9backed No | 77c | 25.91$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.91 | 35 | 51.4%18 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.09per pick | 60cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf62f…acc5backed Yes | 72c | 24.9$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.72per pick | 72cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4eb1…e07bbacked No | 70c | 20$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.06 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 56cpaid | -7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6f6…be31backed No | 72c | 19.61$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.28per pick | 72cpaid | +38.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf467…0f59backed No | 60c | 18.43$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.43 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7853…36d8backed No | 70c | 15.4$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.62 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | +22.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c5c…68a0backed No | 80c | 13.75$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2.75 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Rainbow airdrop in Q1 2025?this page
- Berachain airdrop in Q1 2025?Yes won
- Aleo airdrop in Q1 2025?No won
- Astaria airdrop in Q1 2025?No won
- Avail airdrop in Q1 2025?No won
- Farcaster airdrop in Q1 2025?No won
- Jumper airdrop in Q1 2025?No won
- Linea airdrop in Q1 2025?No won
- MetaMask airdrop in Q1 2025?No won
- PartyDAO airdrop in Q1 2025?No won
- Pump.fun airdrop in Q1 2025?No won
- Rabby airdrop in Q1 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.