TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Token Launches · resolved market

Pump.fun airdrop in Q1 2025?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Token Launchesevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$304,293
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$311,930

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $304,293 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 208 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Token Launches is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Token Launches
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xcee5…73c6backed No65c93,000$60,450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32,5501100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2387…6613backed Yes35c93,000$32,550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,55010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2ba7…46bcbacked Yes32c11,887$3,768 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,767.9320%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.47per pick47cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x574e…3ef1backed No50c4,999$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,499.542853.6%15 W · 13 L+7.7wins+0.27per pick26cpaid+103.1%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0xa57a…66d6backed Yes29c3,500$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.99666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+71.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x24c8…23e1backed Yes3c3,291$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.72848.3%7 W · 77 L-2.0wins-0.02per pick11cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc392…511bbacked Yes0c3,252$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.481225%3 W · 9 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick19cpaid-49.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x461a…4030backed Yes50c2,952$1,476 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,475.8430%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9875…25f1backed No63c2,244$1,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$830.381100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x31b6…3f0ebacked No65c2,170$1,400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$769.93475%3 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.16per pick59cpaid+11.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x288d…1541backed Yes36c2,000$720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$720560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+19.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7cc4…768fbacked Yes42c1,959$827 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$827.281118.2%2 W · 9 L-1.8wins-0.17per pick35cpaid-70.8%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xf612…5700backed No69c1,630$1,125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$504.593831.6%12 W · 26 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick31cpaid-34.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0f99…9b59backed No72c1,594$1,145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$449.56933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick35cpaid-25.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8dc…c1d7backed No71c1,549$1,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$453.534100%4 W · 0 L+1.9wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+123%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x6f07…b0d3backed No67c1,539$1,026 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.223100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+159.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcc79…1c2abacked No66c1,516$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$515.731471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.7wins+0.19per pick52cpaid+73%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x63a1…b435backed No69c1,458$1,003 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$455.07366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-3.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes29c1,437$421 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$421.0933329.7%99 W · 234 L+0.2wins0.00per pick30cpaid-42.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcdbf…1926backed Yes5c1,255$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.41444.5%2 W · 42 L-2.2wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-92.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf240…2392backed Yes33c1,196$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$391.6830%0 W · 3 L-1.1wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6ffb…a834backed Yes12c1,064$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.841822.2%4 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick28cpaid-57.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3704…13b1backed Yes34c1,000$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5628…abbcbacked Yes34c937.2$317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe25b…0f1bbacked No63c912.59$574 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$338.392931%9 W · 20 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick32cpaid-28.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa920…be41backed Yes24c843.12$201 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200.98300%0 W · 30 L-3.3wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf54e…0950backed No78c819.41$639 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.31100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf112…d9e1backed Yes37c800$296 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29630%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.43per pick43cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xb3f7…baaebacked No65c774.57$503 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271.12100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.32per pick68cpaid+46.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3adf…d8b0backed Yes16c678.13$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1092119%4 W · 17 L-1.3wins-0.06per pick25cpaid-55%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x18a7…d21abacked Yes14c661.33$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.08458.9%4 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick7cpaid-51.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xe5d6…55a9backed Yes16c657.76$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$104.9110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x22c6…cf2abacked No77c610$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.7475%3 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick52cpaid+16.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb49e…118fbacked Yes13c608.13$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.0640%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xadf4…ce9dbacked Yes32c596.8$193 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$193.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+6.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfee7…8f5bbacked No69c579.92$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$179.78333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.18per pick52cpaid-51.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdd9e…49b3backed Yes41c570$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.262213.6%3 W · 19 L-2.2wins-0.10per pick24cpaid-66.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No42c524.61$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.588052.5%42 W · 38 L+11.1wins+0.14per pick39cpaid+40.5%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0xecb1…5da3backed No51c509.81$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.812236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick35cpaid+9.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe95e…61f2backed No63c505.1$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.2115041.3%62 W · 88 L+2.5wins+0.02per pick40cpaid+11.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf0ed…47d8backed No69c500$345 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1551030%3 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick33cpaid-53.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c92…1322backed Yes48c500$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.29per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11f5…de19backed Yes23c499.99$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11560%0 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x57c5…28e5backed Yes22c499.99$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11020%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa15a…49aebacked Yes9c465.34$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd5f7…7e8ebacked No75c465.33$347 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.911100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.25per pick75cpaid+33.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd697…def2backed Yes51c459.78$235 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.91145.5%5 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-12.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc68c…f959backed Yes49c457.94$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.8520%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes17c423.3$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.963174.2%23 W · 8 L+8.0wins+0.26per pick48cpaid+44.1%equal weight66+0.14 edge/pick
0x0e91…ea34backed No66c419$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.46850%4 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-27.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb293…cb90backed Yes29c407.24$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.73013.3%4 W · 26 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick12cpaid+42.1%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xfc3f…bb4bbacked Yes30c406.27$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6acb…baefbacked No63c399.68$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$147.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x4947…d6fabacked Yes7c395.66$29 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.1450%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe13b…8a63backed Yes32c385.65$123 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$123.41156.7%1 W · 14 L-1.9wins-0.13per pick20cpaid-89.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa970…d60dbacked No66c339.19$224 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$115.321241.7%5 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick45cpaid-30.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe12a…a710backed No76c328.6$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78.862100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x00fa…d2dabacked Yes15c322$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.310%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0362…9661backed Yes22c319.02$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.12825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.08per pick33cpaid-18.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2020…0822backed Yes16c312.5$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5030%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x606f…a0b9backed No65c309.68$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.683246.9%15 W · 17 L+3.4wins+0.11per pick36cpaid+24%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xf0f6…f699backed No59c300.35$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.4223841.2%98 W · 140 L+25.1wins+0.11per pick31cpaid+30.1%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xc3cd…816cbacked Yes32c300$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$969228.3%26 W · 66 L-2.2wins-0.02per pick31cpaid-9.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd970…3e65backed Yes29c294.02$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.6630%0 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick24cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf34f…c70abacked Yes36c293.7$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc390…28bdbacked Yes16c284.29$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.38575.3%3 W · 54 L-4.2wins-0.07per pick13cpaid+48.2%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x5464…2b85backed Yes15c274$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacba…c87dbacked Yes15c272$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2741…0865backed Yes36c260.98$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.894316.3%7 W · 36 L-5.3wins-0.12per pick29cpaid-55.2%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xe60d…3869backed Yes31c249.72$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b84…c8eebacked Yes31c249.72$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.4110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67b8…2449backed Yes37c243.4$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-42.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9675…1bf1backed Yes10c240$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2420%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1a44…6d3fbacked Yes36c236.09$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.1350%0 W · 5 L-2.9wins-0.58per pick58cpaid-100%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xe6a3…fc02backed No79c223.23$177 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.97714.3%1 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.26per pick41cpaid-82%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No80c220.72$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$45.0821240.6%86 W · 126 L-9.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-16.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked Yes29c218.92$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.646431.3%20 W · 44 L-3.5wins-0.05per pick37cpaid-31.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4db0…7f9abacked Yes23c217.39$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x57e6…d95ebacked No74c211.78$156 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$55.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc67c…9ad5backed Yes24c208.33$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5090%0 W · 9 L-1.9wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x93b4…cbfdbacked No69c203.84$140 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.54966.7%6 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.20per pick46cpaid+39%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd39b…9343backed No54c200$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$921681.3%13 W · 3 L+5.3wins+0.33per pick48cpaid+97.1%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0x96b4…884ebacked Yes13c193.85$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.9wins-0.14per pick48cpaid-52.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbb04…d20fbacked Yes40c188.06$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcceb…f030backed Yes27c181.95$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.926342.9%27 W · 36 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-24.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x853d…f8d4backed Yes19c178.8$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.75450%2 W · 2 L+1.2wins+0.31per pick19cpaid+218.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xb8fe…7537backed Yes24c176.83$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4340%0 W · 4 L-1.1wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9943…4391backed Yes18c158.01$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c1b…20debacked No63c157.19$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.16540%2 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.08per pick48cpaid-41.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f7a…c585backed Yes9c156.11$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.46812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick16cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x70a8…9105backed Yes36c151$55 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55.1633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid+78.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8784…f1aebacked Yes10c150$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1520%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick9cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcc22…ee03backed No68c147.4$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$47.4580%4 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick66cpaid+10.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x975b…2d5fbacked No76c145.86$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.59333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick31cpaid-56.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8957…0d38backed No69c144.93$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid-27.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbab3…4b1bbacked Yes37c139.35$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$51.561421.4%3 W · 11 L-2.8wins-0.20per pick42cpaid-49.6%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x4337…8882backed Yes22c135.74$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$29.911833.9%40 W · 78 L+0.4wins0.00per pick34cpaid-36.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeb21…51bebacked Yes37c133.68$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501050%5 W · 5 L+2.0wins+0.20per pick30cpaid+51.6%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xe281…b710backed Yes51c133.33$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x87ff…183ebacked Yes14c129$18 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.14per pick14cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Token Launches and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.