TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1a94…78b6

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
112
Categories scored
25
Categories below 50
15

Best Category: Europa Conference League, grading 59 out of 100 (+0.08 per pick).

Best Category Europa Conference League at 59 out of 100; worst Premier League at 41.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2025, EDT2634.6%9 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.08per pick26cpaid+24.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Tweets — the 26 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$29Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT+244.8%+$71
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$34
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 25–August 1?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$27.38
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 18–25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2025, EDT+284.6%+$74
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 18–25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 18–25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$27
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 18–25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will Elon tweet 195–209 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$29
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT+257.1%+$72
Will Elon tweet 210–224 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 18, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 11–18?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 17, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 180–194 times July 4–11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$12
Will Elon tweet 150–164 times July 4–11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT+257.1%+$72
Will Elon tweet 165–179 times July 4–11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$17
Will Elon tweet 135–149 times July 4–11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2025, EDT-100%-$22
Will Elon tweet 120–134 times July 4–11?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 10, 2025, EDT-100%-$23.3
Will Elon tweet 150–174 times May 23–30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon tweet 125–149 times May 23–30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 30, 2025, EDT+426.3%+$63.95
Will Elon tweet 175–199 times April 18–25?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
Will Elon tweet 325-349 times March 28 - April 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2025, EDT+262.3%+$36.2
Will Elon tweet 500-524 times March 14-21?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$15
Will Elon tweet less than 400 times March 14-21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$130Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2025, EDT+109.2%+$141.82
Will Elon tweet 525-549 times March 7-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$355Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2025, EDT-100%-$354.9
Will Elon tweet 550-599 times Feb 28 - March 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2025, EST+468.1%+$91.37
Will Elon tweet 850-899 times Feb 21-28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Showing 25 of 26 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT1471.4%10 W · 4 L+3.0wins+0.21per pick50cpaid+65.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Based FDV above $500M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+100%+$15
Backpack FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.6
Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+194.1%+$33
Fogo FDV above $700M one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2026, EST+42.9%+$15
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+72.4%+$12.6
Stable FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+575.7%+$213
Will Stable launch a token in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$10
Monad market cap (FDV) >$8B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$66Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 25, 2025, EST+51.5%+$34
Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 15? backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$126Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 16, 2025, EST-100%-$126.22
Over $1.8B committed to the MegaETH public sale?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+35.1%+$24.75
Meteora FDV above $2B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT+163.2%+$62
Meteora FDV above $1B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 24, 2025, EDT+33.3%+$16.5
Farcaster airdrop in Q1 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$26Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2025, EDT+53.8%+$13.96
Will Trump launch a coin before the election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 17, 2024, EDT-100%-$19
All 14 picks, newest first.
Europa Conference League Inactivelast resolved Feb 19, 2026, EST1172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.8wins+0.26per pick47cpaid+53.5%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
Europa Conference League — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Europa Conference League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$14.5
Will VfB Stuttgart win on 2026-02-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)45c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+122.2%+$48.89
Will Lille OSC win on 2026-02-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+143.9%+$30.22
Lille OSC vs. FK Crvena zvezda: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+51.5%+$12.88
PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. Ferencvárosi TC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+117.4%+$29.35
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-02-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+88.7%+$22.17
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2026-02-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$25
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-02-19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+194.1%+$31.06
PFK Ludogorets 1945 Razgrad vs. Ferencvárosi TC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$25Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+92.3%+$23.08
Fenerbahçe SK vs. Nottingham Forest FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST-100%-$20
GNK Dinamo Zagreb vs. KRC Genk: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 19, 2026, EST+78.6%+$13.36
All 11 picks, newest first.
NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 16, 2026, EST922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.14per pick36cpaid-54%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
NFL — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 50M and 75M views in its first 7 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$173Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$172.74
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get fewer than 50M views in its first 7 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$42.4
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 100M and 125M views in its first 7 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$409Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$409.48
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 125M and 150M views in its first 7 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$306Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST-100%-$305.83
Will the 2026 Bad Bunny Super Bowl halftime show video get between 75M and 100M views in its first 7 days?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$886Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 16, 2026, EST+159.8%+$1,415.71
Will the 2026 Big Game be the most viewed Big Game ever?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST-100%-$35
Will the Bad Bunny Apple Music Super Bowl Halftime Show video get between 50 and 60 million views on day 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 10, 2026, EST+53.8%+$12.25
Will "Tití Me Preguntó" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$13.8
Will "LA MUDANZA" be played first at the Super Bowl halftime show?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST-100%-$10.4
All 9 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2026, EST728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.4wins-0.21per pick49cpaid-52.4%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 19, 2026, EDT714.3%1 W · 6 L-2.6wins-0.37per pick51cpaid-66%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
Premier League — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2026, EST633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.3wins-0.22per pick55cpaid-45.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
La Liga — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Feb 2, 2026, EST520%1 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.16per pick36cpaid-47.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Movies — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Serie A Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.22per pick56cpaid-39.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ligue 1 Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2026, EST30%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
Ligue 1 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ligue 1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jan 15, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+79.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick70cpaid+44.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.06per pick44cpaid0%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin dip to $80,000 by December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$19.25
Will Ethereum reach $4,200 in November?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 1, 2025, EST+100%+$10
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jul 29, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-29.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Feb 28, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick13cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle East Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.75per pick25cpaid+300%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US announces military support of Iran opposition by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+300%+$30
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+100%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Starmer say "Mr. Speaker" 20+ times during the next Prime Minister's Questions event?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$10Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+100%+$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 16, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Chopsticks catch SpaceX's 7th Starship Super Heavy?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 16, 2025, EST+53.8%+$53.85
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 11, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Banana" be said 10+ times during the PGL Bucharest 2026 Grand Final?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$5.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Apr 15, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Champions League Quarterfinals: PSG vs. Aston Villabacked Aston Villa · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)19c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2025, EDT-100%-$13.3
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jan 14, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nigeria win on 2026-01-14?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$10
All 1 picks, newest first.
UFC Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
UFC — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in UFC, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Pereira vs. Ankalaevbacked Pereira · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$99Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2025, EDT-100%-$99.26
All 1 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.65per pick65cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Maduro out by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 3, 2026, EST-100%-$32.5
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.69per pick69cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$50
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.