Bundesliga · resolved market
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to Score
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe366fe19b3860f10339a15547427dbed3e61c6a5a421d9ed6a98ff9db26aa0fc
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $22,978
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $28,892
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $22,978 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 82 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7298…fe8dbacked No | 41c | 3,612$1,477 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,477.05 | 80 | 37.5%30 W · 50 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -11%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 46c | 2,614$1,215 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,214.68 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xecfc…cd05backed Yes | 59c | 2,217$1,309 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$907.75 | 103 | 61.2%63 W · 40 L | +8.2wins | +0.08per pick | 53cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…9100backed No | 41c | 1,548$629 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$629.3 | 762 | 34.8%265 W · 497 L | +9.4wins | +0.01per pick | 34cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x61bb…5854backed Yes | 60c | 915.29$546 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.35 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 61cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc686…5a55backed Yes | 55c | 914.55$503 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.55 | 241 | 32%77 W · 164 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 34cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05a2…468cbacked No | 41c | 799.99$328 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$328 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 42cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfcb5…9bf1backed No | 44c | 500$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220 | 333 | 40.8%136 W · 197 L | -14.3wins | -0.04per pick | 45cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x705d…3438backed Yes | 59c | 482.54$285 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.84 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked No | 40c | 467.1$186 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.43 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b17…03b2backed No | 34c | 465.48$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$160.5 | 43 | 27.9%12 W · 31 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe704…7558backed Yes | 58c | 428.41$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$178.41 | 178 | 55.6%99 W · 79 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 55cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c86…15c0backed Yes | 59c | 423.73$250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.73 | 176 | 52.3%92 W · 84 L | -1.6wins | -0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x49ed…a2fbbacked Yes | 56c | 422$236 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$185.68 | 48 | 37.5%18 W · 30 L | -1.6wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -20.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa5c1…81a1backed Yes | 58c | 414.17$240 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.95 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c2…184fbacked Yes | 42c | 407.9$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.58 | 41 | 43.9%18 W · 23 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb69f…3c2bbacked Yes | 54c | 331.51$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$151.51 | 66 | 65.2%43 W · 23 L | +4.7wins | +0.07per pick | 58cpaid | +10.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe911…3d4ebacked Yes | 60c | 329.2$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.26 | 491 | 43.2%212 W · 279 L | -1.3wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | +22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb5…cabdbacked Yes | 59c | 314.76$186 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.05 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2a0…1f3dbacked Yes | 56c | 305.07$171 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$134.23 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2590…e38ebacked No | 14c | 300$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked No | 41c | 280.28$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.98 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc291…5d74backed No | 44c | 273.84$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$119.27 | 817 | 32.8%268 W · 549 L | -11.2wins | -0.01per pick | 34cpaid | -12.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd473…3febbacked Yes | 51c | 249.77$127 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.39 | 112 | 52.7%59 W · 53 L | -5.2wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -6.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3bc3…0b17backed Yes | 48c | 208.96$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108.96 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +58.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8709…7d3dbacked Yes | 60c | 206.67$124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.67 | 28 | 53.6%15 W · 13 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 56cpaid | -6.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc556…958dbacked Yes | 49c | 206.29$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$105.21 | 31 | 45.2%14 W · 17 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +3.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f40…bd86backed Yes | 59c | 200.87$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.36 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1233…d58fbacked Yes | 56c | 178.57$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.57 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -47.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5b8…99f3backed No | 8c | 177.39$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.19 | 12 | 8.3%1 W · 11 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 9cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f6…4892backed Yes | 58c | 172.41$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.41 | 66 | 45.5%30 W · 36 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe48c…163abacked Yes | 53c | 171.7$91 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.7 | 95 | 48.4%46 W · 49 L | -1.1wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -3.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e46…e394backed Yes | 58c | 171.31$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$71.31 | 17 | 82.4%14 W · 3 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 62cpaid | +31.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x802f…e008backed Yes | 60c | 166.67$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.67 | 122 | 71.3%87 W · 35 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 66cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x621e…471fbacked Yes | 61c | 163.93$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.93 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9269…9abfbacked Yes | 56c | 153.82$86 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.68 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f0…890dbacked Yes | 59c | 150$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$61.5 | 90 | 62.2%56 W · 34 L | +6.4wins | +0.07per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 52c | 135.91$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.06 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb166…3105backed No | 44c | 120$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.7 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.3wins | -0.09per pick | 49cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…f836backed Yes | 43c | 110$47 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62.7 | 100 | 57%57 W · 43 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 55cpaid | +11.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa9b1…242fbacked Yes | 59c | 101.69$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.69 | 92 | 52.2%48 W · 44 L | +6.7wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe550…4ebbbacked Yes | 50c | 100$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50 | 126 | 35.7%45 W · 81 L | +5.4wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +5.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe6e4…22ccbacked No | 41c | 99.98$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.99 | 44 | 40.9%18 W · 26 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 37cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e3…0d1abacked Yes | 52c | 98.71$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.71 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +3.1wins | +0.06per pick | 42cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcfe6…49f8backed Yes | 61c | 98.36$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.36 | 221 | 57%126 W · 95 L | +10.6wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2ed1…ba8ebacked Yes | 60c | 91.67$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.67 | 7 | 100%7 W · 0 L | +3.0wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +98.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x7f2d…fbf5backed No | 49c | 90.74$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.76 | 74 | 63.5%47 W · 27 L | +6.6wins | +0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xfea6…d837backed No | 14c | 90$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -40.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x27e2…20ccbacked Yes | 56c | 89.39$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x51bb…a919backed Yes | 56c | 89.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.28 | 12 | 75%9 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 65cpaid | +15.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6be…b977backed Yes | 59c | 84.75$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.75 | 89 | 50.6%45 W · 44 L | +5.3wins | +0.06per pick | 45cpaid | +11.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2b34…b202backed No | 41c | 79.99$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.4 | 63 | 31.7%20 W · 43 L | -7.6wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -32%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x46b3…d3debacked Yes | 60c | 66.67$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.67 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.42per pick | 58cpaid | +72.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbfd7…f0bfbacked No | 52c | 66.35$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.83 | 215 | 40.9%88 W · 127 L | -15.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf280…b65bbacked No | 41c | 63.41$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26 | 65 | 33.8%22 W · 43 L | +2.5wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -13%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc0cf…8bcbbacked Yes | 57c | 61.16$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.16 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +1.8wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa4bd…e8a2backed No | 33c | 52.16$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.28 | 381 | 51.4%196 W · 185 L | -6.0wins | -0.02per pick | 53cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 42c | 51.82$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.73 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc4db…7e0cbacked Yes | 54c | 50.91$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23.42 | 91 | 50.5%46 W · 45 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +27%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b03…b766backed Yes | 60c | 50$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.20per pick | 65cpaid | -31.8%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x239b…f8bfbacked No | 41c | 50$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.5 | 74 | 52.7%39 W · 35 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -0.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa23f…a64ebacked Yes | 60c | 47.08$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.66 | 86 | 64%55 W · 31 L | +5.8wins | +0.07per pick | 57cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x200f…7a96backed No | 40c | 47$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.88 | 1,083 | 50.8%550 W · 533 L | +8.2wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | +2.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c46…dac9backed Yes | 42c | 46.5$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.79 | 395 | 58.7%232 W · 163 L | +27.4wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +15.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x01c7…e995backed No | 52c | 45.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.77 | 1,013 | 44.5%451 W · 562 L | -8.2wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b23…04a3backed Yes | 68c | 43.78$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.95 | 160 | 46.9%75 W · 85 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 44cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x49e4…8282backed Yes | 58c | 42.48$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x69e7…7cb7backed Yes | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 117 | 51.3%60 W · 57 L | -9.2wins | -0.08per pick | 59cpaid | -18.6%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xce9e…10bebacked Yes | 59c | 42.37$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.37 | 42 | 61.9%26 W · 16 L | +2.2wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1a94…78b6backed Yes | 59c | 42$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.22 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.4wins | -0.21per pick | 49cpaid | -52.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9493…7988backed Yes | 58c | 40$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.8 | 44 | 43.2%19 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16fe…9496backed Yes | 58c | 39.66$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.66 | 158 | 54.4%86 W · 72 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | +8.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf672…c3c4backed No | 42c | 35.71$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf71…9f1cbacked Yes | 58c | 35$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.7 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 56cpaid | +36.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x157a…e4a3backed Yes | 58c | 34.48$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.48 | 79 | 58.2%46 W · 33 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 58cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd37a…2358backed No | 44c | 30.3$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 624 | 52.6%328 W · 296 L | -9.9wins | -0.02per pick | 54cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5182…1774backed Yes | 61c | 29.48$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.5 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.39per pick | 61cpaid | +63.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98c5…dd3bbacked Yes | 59c | 27.12$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.12 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2394…9312backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -2.3wins | -0.18per pick | 56cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7d04…e037backed Yes | 59c | 25.42$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.42 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +53%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x08da…4156backed Yes | 52c | 21.32$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.32 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x89d3…59a6backed Yes | 59c | 18.67$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +69.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Hamburger SV: Both Teams to Scorethis page
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 1.5Over won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5Under won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 3.5Under won
- 1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.