TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$216,402
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$222,056

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $216,402 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 232 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd29…77aebacked Over53c99,432$53,101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,100.726358.7%37 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under49c28,069$13,796 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,273.393,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Under45c20,767$9,423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,343.9738748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Under46c16,269$7,484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,785.261346.2%6 W · 7 L-0.6wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-10.3%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe56d…2b65backed Under47c15,904$7,475 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,429.26560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.13per pick47cpaid+35.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8566…c626backed Over50c10,089$5,045 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,044.562236.4%8 W · 14 L-3.2wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-31.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0xdd35…17debacked Over55c9,138$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,000333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick63cpaid-52.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7b2c…af48backed Under47c8,100$3,807 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,29356547.8%270 W · 295 L+6.8wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-0.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc949…fa93backed Under45c7,000$3,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,8501457.1%8 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+7.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4980…a14cbacked Under47c6,751$3,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,578.06450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x351e…a91ebacked Under47c6,751$3,173 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,578.06450%2 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-13.5%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xd6a3…9489backed Under50c5,281$2,642 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,638.553645.9%246 W · 290 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick45cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x38b0…060cbacked Under45c5,088$2,290 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,798.471650%8 W · 8 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+9.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Under45c5,000$2,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,749.9916647%78 W · 88 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7197…14c8backed Over45c4,500$2,025 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,0253246.9%15 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick45cpaid+12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4c8c…d09dbacked Under46c4,499$2,070 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,429.63366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.21per pick46cpaid+37.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Under46c4,171$1,913 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,258.631,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x351e…de8abacked Under46c3,989$1,835 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,154.132846.4%13 W · 15 L-0.1wins0.00per pick47cpaid+4.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Under47c3,002$1,414 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,587.662,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8f03…64d6backed Under45c2,897$1,304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,593.28757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2ace…ea51backed Under47c2,700$1,269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,431250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d84…21b1backed Under47c2,330$1,095 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,234.69951.5%51 W · 48 L-1.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa6d1…62eabacked Under49c2,100$1,029 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,070.985145.1%23 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick45cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Under50c1,952$976 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$975.81764.7%11 W · 6 L+0.9wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+6.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x3102…187cbacked Over55c1,900$1,041 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,041.095152.9%27 W · 24 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12d9…01bbbacked Over55c1,899$1,044 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,044.222520%5 W · 20 L-3.5wins-0.14per pick34cpaid-50.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x94d8…8835backed Over56c1,787$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.581258.3%7 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick56cpaid+1.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb552…94a8backed Under48c1,466$704 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$762.3210154.5%55 W · 46 L+4.1wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed Over54c1,100$590 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$589.9335856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f40…bd86backed Over55c1,000$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5501450%7 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick56cpaid-11.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x368c…9f72backed Over65c999.99$650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$649.99955.6%5 W · 4 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick62cpaid-1.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Over52c999.96$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.9811644.8%52 W · 64 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x08ba…2a30backed Over55c918$505 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$504.912861.7%79 W · 49 L+3.9wins+0.03per pick59cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x57a4…f0c0backed Over55c909.09$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5006448.4%31 W · 33 L-4.4wins-0.07per pick55cpaid-15.6%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x6b17…03b2backed Over48c851.98$406 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$406.184327.9%12 W · 31 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick29cpaid+0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Over37c837.87$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.021,35550.9%690 W · 665 L+12.7wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-2.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3909…335fbacked Over52c705.28$367 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$366.742040%8 W · 12 L-1.4wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-36.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd092…342abacked Over53c641.51$340 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34018759.4%111 W · 76 L-1.2wins-0.01per pick60cpaid-0.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8c16…4b37backed Under66c629.37$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$212.833268.8%22 W · 10 L+3.2wins+0.10per pick59cpaid+22.7%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd4f3…78d1backed Over57c620.21$354 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd3cf…493bbacked Under48c500$238 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2625974.6%44 W · 15 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick64cpaid+18.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf439…bf9cbacked Over56c500$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2803647.2%17 W · 19 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-8.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2714…960fbacked Under45c499.95$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$274.975455.6%30 W · 24 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Under45c492.86$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.2648146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa03…c9ffbacked Under46c488.57$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9592…a85bbacked Under49c454.7$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$231.72231.8%7 W · 15 L-3.1wins-0.14per pick46cpaid-40.5%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x1c86…15c0backed Over55c454.55$250 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25017652.3%92 W · 84 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-4.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77bc…b91bbacked Under50c450.94$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$223.411,30540.8%532 W · 773 L-42.3wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-21.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5611…e5f4backed Over55c404.89$223 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$222.693847.4%18 W · 20 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-8.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0a0c…0beebacked Over53c376.89$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200450%2 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+18.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x064e…4347backed Over55c363.64$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$200812.5%1 W · 7 L-2.6wins-0.32per pick45cpaid-80.8%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xff80…8cb5backed Under60c360.9$217 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$144.36850%4 W · 4 L+0.8wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-2.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c0d…b612backed Over58c344.65$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20014260.6%86 W · 56 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick61cpaid-1.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1af8…9a99backed Under46c319.78$147 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.681100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+117.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ae2…20a3backed Over53c314.39$167 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$166.632556%14 W · 11 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick58cpaid-7.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Under46c300$138 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$16224258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd9f8…e913backed Over51c280.39$143 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1431233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.5wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-37%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8e5a…154cbacked Over55c280.11$154 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$154.068955.1%49 W · 40 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xa178…11a2backed Over54c277.78$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15019055.3%105 W · 85 L+5.1wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Under46c270$124 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.822854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Under58c258.62$150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$108.6238055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Under46c253.54$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$136.9149647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xab70…0322backed Over40c250$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Under46c250$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13563645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdbdd…a5debacked Under50c238.56$120 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.4448658.6%285 W · 201 L+44.5wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+33%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x4d58…2073backed Under46c230$106 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$124.214355.9%80 W · 63 L+9.7wins+0.07per pick49cpaid+12.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xdb12…f057backed Under46c225$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.515453.9%83 W · 71 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick52cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa2e0…d084backed Under46c217.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.39771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.7wins+0.10per pick61cpaid+20.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa558…dc8cbacked Under46c217.39$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.39666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick57cpaid+15.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa35f…b58fbacked Over53c200.7$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.3710642.5%45 W · 61 L+6.1wins+0.06per pick37cpaid+16.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4103…9b9ebacked Over54c200.69$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.372536%9 W · 16 L-2.3wins-0.09per pick45cpaid-17.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x2060…9186backed Over57c200.09$114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1144658.7%27 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x68ff…997ebacked Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100862.5%5 W · 3 L+1.8wins+0.23per pick40cpaid+51.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x5773…ac11backed Over55c200$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11031145%140 W · 171 L-1.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid+4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad9d…f2cdbacked Over50c200$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008124.7%20 W · 61 L-5.8wins-0.07per pick32cpaid-36.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xde4b…3b7dbacked Over49c200$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$981040%4 W · 6 L-1.1wins-0.11per pick51cpaid-16.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc291…5d74backed Under49c198.36$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.9381732.8%268 W · 549 L-11.2wins-0.01per pick34cpaid-12.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a4b…bbcabacked Over52c193.69$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.7234655.5%192 W · 154 L+9.8wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+4.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fea…9bdbbacked Under36c192.31$70 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.312100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+146.1%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x14b0…8d0ebacked Over53c188.68$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008246.3%38 W · 44 L-0.3wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc686…5a55backed Over54c185.19$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10024132%77 W · 164 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick34cpaid-6.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4157…04f9backed Over55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1007857.7%45 W · 33 L+4.5wins+0.06per pick52cpaid+8.6%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x60c2…8052backed Over55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1005742.1%24 W · 33 L+2.5wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+11.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xce9a…002bbacked Over55c181.82$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.11per pick61cpaid-25.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2dc…b3c5backed Under46c180$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.212356.9%70 W · 53 L+8.1wins+0.07per pick50cpaid+10.3%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc383…a540backed Under46c180$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.212858.6%75 W · 53 L+11.9wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xd473…3febbacked Over42c179.98$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.5911252.7%59 W · 53 L-5.2wins-0.05per pick57cpaid-6.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d08…2142backed Over46c170.87$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.496936.2%25 W · 44 L-4.6wins-0.07per pick43cpaid-29.5%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xf3ef…7be6backed Under45c150$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.51952.6%10 W · 9 L+1.4wins+0.07per pick45cpaid+18.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa60b…c728backed Over51c141.99$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.0113957.6%80 W · 59 L+10.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x8c34…2d7dbacked Under45c140$63 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771546.7%7 W · 8 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick49cpaid+0.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4306…618abacked Over55c136.36$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755044%22 W · 28 L-2.9wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x418b…a741backed Over66c121.21$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8012069.2%83 W · 37 L+5.8wins+0.05per pick64cpaid+10.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x84fc…9db4backed Under46c120$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.812259%72 W · 50 L+11.6wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x7398…f4b6backed Under46c120$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.811458.8%67 W · 47 L+10.9wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+18.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf79e…9a84backed Under46c120$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.813859.4%82 W · 56 L+12.8wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+18.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x864c…735fbacked Under46c120$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.811259.8%67 W · 45 L+11.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid+20.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0fad…aa0fbacked Under46c120$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.812458.9%73 W · 51 L+12.0wins+0.10per pick49cpaid+17.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xdcf7…bcbebacked Under46c120$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.812657.9%73 W · 53 L+9.9wins+0.08per pick50cpaid+12.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0xa620…ca56backed Under46c120$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.812358.5%72 W · 51 L+11.1wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+17.2%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.