TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x2ace…ea51

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
22
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
4

Best Category: AI, grading 52 out of 100 (+0.02 per pick).

Best Category AI at 52 out of 100; worst Fifa International at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 5, 2026, EDT1241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-24.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Mexico win on 2026-07-05?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$2,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+42.9%+$857.14
Will Brazil vs. Norway end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$2,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 5, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$702.7
Canada vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 4, 2026, EDT+115.1%+$1,150.62
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$200Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$200
Spread: Belgium (-1.5)backed Belgium · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$9,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$9,500
Spread: Spain (-2.5)backed Spain · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$1,260Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$1,311.43
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 1.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$600Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$600
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$108.33
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Türkiye finish last in Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Stage?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
All 12 picks, newest first.
La Liga Inactivelast resolved May 10, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+10.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Oviedo win on 2026-05-10?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$700Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$344.78
RC Celta de Vigo vs. RCD Mallorca: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$3,000Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST+81.8%+$2,454.55
Athletic Club vs. Elche CF: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$2,680Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST-100%-$2,680
All 3 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Feb 21, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+6.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
FC Bayern München vs. Eintracht Frankfurt: O/U 4.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$2,800Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 21, 2026, EST-100%-$2,800
1. FSV Mainz 05 vs. Hamburger SV: O/U 2.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$1,269Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 20, 2026, EST+112.8%+$1,431
All 2 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$21.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 20, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Counter-Strike: 1WIN vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoffsbacked Virtus.pro · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 20, 2026, EDT+88.7%+$88.68
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-09?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$570Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$570
All 1 picks, newest first.
Serie A Inactivelast resolved Feb 23, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Serie A — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Serie A, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
ACF Fiorentina vs. Pisa SC: O/U 2.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$1,000Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 23, 2026, EST-100%-$1,000
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Club Brugge KV: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$4,400Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST-100%-$4,400
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.